You're a Bunch of Factors

For all the poker aficionado's out there, answer me this.

Percentage wise, to win the hand, what's better?

Holding pockets (for this example lets use 6s) and hitting trips on the flop, or A 6 and the flop coming J 6 6? (or whatever, the A or J aren't specific. And lets assume that there are no flush draws for both flops).

And, what would you prefer?

Using Poker Odds 2.5 over 100k hands simulate.

Against 1 other Player
Holding pocket 6's and hitting a 6 on the flop gives the breakdown of.
91.5% Win 7.8% Lose 0.662% Draw
2 Players
85.3% Win 14.1% Lose 0.568% Draw
3 Players
80.0% Win 19.5% Lose 0.432% Draw

Holding 6 x and hitting 2 6's on flop.
92.2% Win 5.6% Lose 2.142% Draw
2 Players
85.1% Win 10.7% Lose 4.16% Draw
3 Players
79.1% Win 15.1% Lose 5.733% Draw

Thats the mathematics side of it all. Obviously very similar except in regards to drawing the hand and also the loss % is smaller in the paired board scenario.

However, which hand is the best disguised?

If you have the pair of 6's and have tripped up. You can wait for the opponent to then get a piece of the board, or let him chase his drawing knowing that most times you are favorite against his chasing of draws. Also more than likely you are going to stack him.

If you have the naked 6 on a double 6 board. You are not going to get much action purely from the perspective that everyone is scared of the paired board. So you can either let them draw out, or try weak bets to entice a raise out of them. Most often the people that will call you have a pair with the paired board, Could already have the full house, or have the other 6 with a bigger kicker.

All helps if you have a read on your opponent and also have an idea of what they are likely to chase and bet with.

Ditto to what Brett said.
Flopping a set is almost always more advantageous than flopping trips.
There are the odd scenarios where my thoughts on this differ but we are been very general here.

I like an action board of Qs Js Jh when I am holding QQ or QJ (if i have QQ I want some other joker holding KJ AJ, JTs etc..) and have a full table swimming in the pool. That is one scenario were I like to see the board paired, too many players chase down if you give them enough value.
But in this case if I was holding KJ or AJ and was seeing a lot of action I would seriously contemplate folding, depending on my reads.

I think you are much more likely to wipe out your opponent if you hold the pocket pair (especially if it is higher than the paired board).

This happened to me about a week ago.
Example I'm holding AA
Board KK99A

Against 2 others, 1 holding K while other had 9. There is just no way the guy with the king was ever going to lay down so I just kept on raising til it was all in the middle. Sweet pot.

I also love holding a set plus the paired board (full house ) against the nut flush. Thats what makes the previous hours of grinding worth while.

As has already been said the disguised set has much better value than the other way.

There is just no way the guy with the king was ever going to lay down so I just kept on raising til it was all in the middle

Where you playing limit or doing that silly min raise each other thing?

Garth Kay wrote:

There is just no way the guy with the king was ever going to lay down so I just kept on raising til it was all in the middle

Where you playing limit or doing that silly min raise each other thing?

No I hate people who min raise each other (especially preflop). It was more bet - 3bet - 9bet - 15bet -allin - allin

AceLosesKing wrote:Holding pockets (for this example lets use 6s) and hitting trips on the flop,

Which is really, a set, not trips

well there you go, you learn something new every day.

i have always used the terms "set" and "trips" interchangeably, but by the sounds of it, they are different.

muzzington wrote:

David wrote:

AceLosesKing wrote:Holding pockets (for this example lets use 6s) and hitting trips on the flop,

Which is really, a set, not trips

muzzington, will your biography be a series of tiny little funny gifs?