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Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 1:01 am
by AceLosesKing
Because I've just hit pocket Aces TWICE in the space of 3 hands. And then AK in the 4th hand.

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 1:03 am
by Nevah play JJ
Hahahaha... that is awesome AK!!

I must admit I did get pocket aces 2 hands in a row once at the Woodcroft, but the next hands had nothing to offer... lol

The hands you mentioned are totally awesome.

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 1:16 am
by AceLosesKing
Nevah play JJ wrote:Hahahaha... that is awesome AK!!

I must admit I did get pocket aces 2 hands in a row once at the Woodcroft, but the next hands had nothing to offer... lol

The hands you mentioned are totally awesome.


Hand 1: AA. Blinds 25/50, I raised to 200, 2 callers.

Flop: K 7 5. Flush draw. Both players check, I bet 200, both fold.

Hand 2: 75. I fold preflop.

Hand 3: AA. Raised to 300 preflop, one caller.

Flop: 9 8 8. He checks. I bet 300, he raises to 600. I consider if he has the 8, and contemplate folding. But I'm loaded with chips, so I call.

Turn: A. The money card, unless he has pocket 8s this pot is mine :) I push him all in for 700, he calls, shows Q9. Smashed.

Hand 4: AK, offsuit. I raise to 400 preflop. One caller.

Flop: 6 8 3. No flush draws. I bet 400, he calls. Turn and river junk, we end up checking it down. He shows KJ, I win with A high.

Good times :)

Edit: Ok, wow. I just got dealt pocket Aces again... and the entire table (4) folded. Yeah, a bloody walk (SB was away) with Aces.

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 1:27 am
by Tom Cerny
Ha ! small bickies

at Naracoorte last thurs 5 AA in 5 consectutive deals, with 2 people getting AA twice in a row, moving clockwise round the table: one guy gets AA twice then the guy to his left gets AA then the guy to his left gets AA twice

i watched the last 4 deals and cards were being correctly shuffled

Things are happening in the country!

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 3:14 pm
by Origami
Tom Cerny wrote: his left gets AA twice

i watched the last 4 deals and cards were being correctly shuffled

Things are happening in the country!


Must of had alot of Rain lately ?? good for growing "Aces"

how the crops looking ?? ..the Cockies would be pretty happy now

they even have time off to play poker !!!

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 4:25 pm
by bennymacca
chances of hitting pockets are 4/52*3/51 = 0.00452 = 0.45%

chances of getting them twice in 3 hands.

since hands are independent events, chances of getting aces on the third hand is again 0.45%.

allowing for the fact that "twice in 3 hands" also includes twice in a row and not getting them on either the first or the third hand, there are 3 different combinations of AA,AA,junk

i.e your odds would be 3 * 0.00452^2 = 0.0061%, or about 1 in 16315.

your odds of getting AA twice in a row and not 2 in 3 hands is 0.002% or approx 1/50000, and if you are asking specifically for the probablility of getting AA on the first hand, and then 2 hands later, then this probability also applies.

man i am bored at work.

PS i hope my maths is ok, feel free to tell me you think its wrong or just dont care.

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 4:26 pm
by Des
mmm milo

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 4:29 pm
by David
Hmmm

since hands are independent events, chances of getting aces on the third hand is again 0.45%.


As a standalone hand, yes - but not as a sequence.

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 4:30 pm
by bennymacca
David wrote:Hmmm

since hands are independent events, chances of getting aces on the third hand is again 0.45%.


As a standalone hand, yes - but not as a sequence.


thats why i have squared the 0.0045 in the final calculation david.

Re: Somebody tell me the odds...

Posted: Thu May 29, 2008 4:31 pm
by bennymacca
bennymacca wrote:3 * 0.00452^2 = 0.0061%, or about 1 in 16315.


3 * 0.00452 * 0.00452 = 0.0061%