Do you fold this hand on the Satellite bubble?

[bennymacca]

bruce is wondering what all the fuss is about.

[Swanky]

I think he meant the table.
Either way you're right it was an awesome story.

Yeah, the table.

And it was awesome.

It was so awesome I think it should be good for Awesome Story of the Year.

[AJG]

I had this exact situation in a Sat to the exact same tourney, well almost extact, I was a bit better of chip-wise (about 5 below me).
I folded AA in a heartbeat... And I wasnt even facing a raise... And I won a seat...

People make the mistake of looking at the hand in isolation. YES you have good equity in this hand, but consider your tournament equity/odds...

BS's UTG minraise still shows strength, infact I think if he had weaker he would raise more to take advantage of the bubble effect. Even if he has AK your less than a 7:3 favourite... and with a shorter stack than your own in play, your probably more than this to fold into a seat, depending on exactly how much shorter he was than you...
I think the blinds would (or should) Fold here regardless of their cards, the LAST thing they should be looking for is a confrontation with the BS... And if they are Sat regs then they should know this.

So that would mean, it is probably a HU pot, but given your stacksize I think it reasonable to say that UTG is going to shove ANY flop if you call.

You still have 8BB, and in any other tourney this would be an easy jam, but a Sat (and on the bubble) makes in completely different...
(Not saying you don't understand that, but some others here sound like they ignore the Sat aspect?)

Personally I would fold and hope that another SS decides to make a play and is knocked out or gets blinded/anted to nothing... (and run down the clock on every hand )
Yes, Krunchie, this may put things out of your control, but so does an allin pre.... You cant control the cards that come out or any future action...

I won't repeat the math here, but I have seen it shown that it is correct to fold AA even if you KNOW your opponent has 72o on a Sat bubble (although the situiation assumed a slightly larger stack than yours). I also saw a vid a while back of Moneymaker playing a Sat that awarded 2 seats to a major live event and it was on the bubble, he was the big stack, in the BB. UTG folded, SB limped he checked Ad7d. the flop fell 7h7c3h, the SB shoved (mid stack) and Moneymaker folded! I couldnt beleive he folded this, then later read this hand in a book (although it didnt name the player, just said 'a pro'), and the explanation made complete sense... btw, this hand was also at the 400/800/100 level, not that it matters...

Edit: changed from card images at the bottom. Why do they show fine in the preview, but sometimes all screwy when submitted?

[Caleb]

Now THIS is a worthy HH.

Shove. Flatting is pointless, you don't want the SB/BB coming along. Just because you're on the bubble in a $24 tourny doesn't mean that the BB is going to fold something like TT here. You want this pot HU. There are more hands that UTG can call with than the one that beats you. Nathan's 3b line would have a larger % of folding out hands, but you must know that if you do this you are committed to the hand.

You don't give any reads on UTG... so I put it in here. I really don't think you can fold down here from 27th position, with 8bb. Its bubble play, its going to take even longer for someone to bust.

I'm quoting this because this is pretty close to my thinking at the time, but obviously since I forgot to post my reads I'll fill this in now.

UTG Big Stack has been raising pre 60-70% of the time, mostly with ace-rag (from the few hands I saw, he showed a couple). He was in blind-stealing mode for 40 hands previous, regardless who the blinds were. If no small stacks went in, the big stacks usually folded their blinds to him.

Both blinds I had seen make calls of between 25-50% of their stack with crap (9 7s and 10 8o respectively) with the simple intent of knocking a player out. For this reason I was not going to jam in this position. I could quite easily see myself getting 3 callers to my all in.

So my options were call or fold. I hovered over both for a while but finally I called.

Why? 2 reasons.

If I win this hand I win a ticket. Even if I take the pot on the flop I'm winning 3600 min, easily enough to put me in top 20. I put myself at risk to a re-raise from the blinds, but something told me they would not risk a confrontation with the big stack raiser.

Secondly, I couldn't bring myself to fold. I'm not that good yet. I'd been card dead for so long, getting so frustrated at the donks on my table. I just couldn't fold a hand that could guarantee me a ticket.

So I called. So did SB. BB folded.

Flop: [ad 10c 5h]

Checked all round.

Turn [9c].

UTG fires 2400. We both fold. He shows [5c 5d].

So I was down to 4850. Next hand some N00B goes in all UTG on a different table for 8900, gets called by a big stack with AKo. N00B shows KQo and is busted.

Hello ticket

[AceLosesKing]

What where you doing if the flop didn't contain an Ace? Checking it down anyway?

Nice work on the ticket!

Wow that's an uber n00b shove.

[Caleb]

What where you doing if the flop didn't contain an Ace? Checking it down anyway?

Nice work on the ticket!

Wow that's an uber n00b shove.

Jamming any dry flop with no ace. Ace saved me on that one.

[Origami]

bruce is wondering what all the fuss is about.

nice call benny the cunt.

[Origami]

I had this exact situation in a Sat to the exact same tourney, well almost extact, I was a bit better of chip-wise (about 5 below me).
I folded AA in a heartbeat... And I wasnt even facing a raise... And I won a seat...

People make the mistake of looking at the hand in isolation. YES you have good equity in this hand, but consider your tournament equity/odds...

BS's UTG minraise still shows strength, infact I think if he had weaker he would raise more to take advantage of the bubble effect. Even if he has AK your less than a 7:3 favourite... and with a shorter stack than your own in play, your probably more than this to fold into a seat, depending on exactly how much shorter he was than you...
I think the blinds would (or should) Fold here regardless of their cards, the LAST thing they should be looking for is a confrontation with the BS... And if they are Sat regs then they should know this.

So that would mean, it is probably a HU pot, but given your stacksize I think it reasonable to say that UTG is going to shove ANY flop if you call.

You still have 8BB, and in any other tourney this would be an easy jam, but a Sat (and on the bubble) makes in completely different...
(Not saying you don't understand that, but some others here sound like they ignore the Sat aspect?)

Personally I would fold and hope that another SS decides to make a play and is knocked out or gets blinded/anted to nothing... (and run down the clock on every hand )
Yes, Krunchie, this may put things out of your control, but so does an allin pre.... You cant control the cards that come out or any future action...

I won't repeat the math here, but I have seen it shown that it is correct to fold AA even if you KNOW your opponent has 72o on a Sat bubble (although the situiation assumed a slightly larger stack than yours). I also saw a vid a while back of Moneymaker playing a Sat that awarded 2 seats to a major live event and it was on the bubble, he was the big stack, in the BB. UTG folded, SB limped he checked Ad7d. the flop fell 7h7c3h, the SB shoved (mid stack) and Moneymaker folded! I couldnt beleive he folded this, then later read this hand in a book (although it didnt name the player, just said 'a pro'), and the explanation made complete sense... btw, this hand was also at the 400/800/100 level, not that it matters...

Edit: changed from card images at the bottom. Why do they show fine in the preview, but sometimes all screwy when submitted?

Thank you

Ive been waiting nearly 2yrs on this forum for justification to folding AA.
[you gotta practice these things].
who is this Money Maker guy anyway ??
Wonder if he's ever played Joe Hachem HU?
The 'Dream ' lives on....

cheers.

bruce ' a Ace folder' klm.

[BigPete33]

Ive been waiting nearly 2yrs on this forum for justification to folding AA.

Absolute RUBBISH Bruce!!!!!!!!


There was a lengthy discussion on that very topic and I'm quite sure you were around then.

[AJG]

Bruce, Chris Moneymaker satellited into the 2003 WSOP for $39 on Pokerstars, and WON! - 2.5 Million! And it was his first live tournament
Yeah Im sure he's played Hachem, but dont know HU...
And yes its his real name...

http://www.pokerstars.com/team-pokersta ... oneymaker/