AJ on a Jack High Board - What shall thou do?

[trishan]

Do you think he would make the same play with KQ?

This is a probability distribution of what I think he has:

Under pairs
22,33,44,66,77,99 27%
Top Pair on Flop
K 10/Q 10/10 9 23%
Hands that have me smashed
QQ KK AA J 1015%
Hands people think are good without having hit
AQ AK 15%
Sets
55/88/10 10 12.5%
Draws
KQ/9Q/Flush draw 5%
Others 2.5%

Thoughts?

[bennymacca]

80% of all statistics are made up

tell us what you think he had at the time, not in hindsight, or what it should/could be made up of

[trishan]

That's what I though back then.

[bennymacca]

all those odds went through ur head at the time?

i call bs

[trishan]

all those odds went through ur head at the time?

i call bs

LOL - all approximations but the bottom line is at the time I thought I was a 50% chance of winning and given pot odds you can guess what I did.

[AJG]

The reason I didn't raise preflop is because OOP AJ is very hard to play.

Just my opinion, but reason enough to raise pre I think...

[trishan]

Outcome:

Spoiler:

The money went in. He showed QQ and the river bricked out.

[Chelsea4thewin]

i was gonna say something like that, flop bet looks like he was trying to keep you in the hand

[trishan]

i was gonna say something like that, flop bet looks like he was trying to keep you in the hand

Chelsea + others who have seen what he had - why would you limp this preflop??