Question of the Day 21/08

[Bacon]

I still think, for the hands you are beating/splitting v the hand you are losing to, the all-in still sounds right.

[trishan]

Personally I don't think there is even a question about it - the money is going in. The real topic for discussion here is what could he have.

[AceLosesKing]

Who gives a crap what he have, shove this river.

[David]

Probably has 89s and rivered two pair.

Edit: and seeing the second pair forgot to realise the board almost straighted.

[AJG]

What has you beat? 7 10 There is no way he can play 7 10 like above so I raise all in and if he has 7 10 then I quit poker and try my luck at chess.

Ha! tell that to Daniel Negreanu... He loves T7! but UTG, I agree none too likely...

Hands he could have that makes some sense:
A2 for straight
55,66,99,33,88 for set
10 10, J J for overpair (Rule out QQ, KK, AA as doest not fit with limp-call pre)
Suited connectors for two pair
Bluff

I think set on river or turn.

A2 not make a straight? No 4 on the board...
Also your assumptions about big PPs not quite right either...
Maybe most people wouldnt play them like that, but some do, and some do sometimes... and UTG I think he raise any PP >= 7s if he going to play the medium ones at all.
Maybe also suited connector that make a straight? 67, 78? even 77?

I think a likely outcome is a chop, so imho shoving really has little value here, unless it could make him think YOU had T7...
Or as trishan says, he could be bluffing you, representing a 7.
So, it comes down to if you think its a bluff? If you think he is, maybe flat and then say "Show us your bluff!" Good for fear equity if your right! Also, if you think he's bluffing then there is no extra value in a shove as he won't call, so a flat is best imho, especially with the statement.
If you do shove, what hands will call you that you beat? I think the only advantage you would get from shoving here is not having to show your cards... Only hand I can see calling allin here is 99

I cant see why he would raise that river with anything other than a 7 in his hand. If he made a set anywhere prior to the river, he'd (should) have raised earlier to protect it... And a river set still its a scary(ish) board?

Edit: yeah, David may be right.

[Garth Kay]

With a play like this my read is that villain has set up or has played an overpair very weakly. My concern is that he is decent but loose - wtf does that really mean? I think he is slow playing a flopped set on the flop and he's thinking goes like this.

VILLAIN THINKIN ON STREETS:

Pre flop: "Medium pockets (insert other specualtive hands such as suited connectors etc...), let's see if I can see a cheap flop from UTG" then "Oh wow a raise from the button, he's just playing position, awesome I will call and make my play post flop after I check out the texture"

Flop: "Awesome I have hit this flop (HARD?? I have a set on a rainbow board, let's check, oh wow dealer is c betting this flop I'm way ahead of his late pos opening range, let's call and see if I can extract more value on later streets, cause he won't call any check raise here"

Turn: "Let's check and see if he double barrels here. Wow he checked I am way ahead of his range now, he might have Ace high here or paint in the whole and he is trying to get showdown value. This hand is mine!"

River: "Let's check again, he has to fire here, I've played this hand so passively he has to fire out a bet. BANG there it is! Pretty small value bet, he is trying to take down the pot here, let's check raise him. There is noway he has a seven here his play makes me think he has a strong Ace, he wouldn;t play an overpair this way and he wouldn't raise in position with a raggy hand, not in his opening range, let's see how much value I can get if I raise 4X make it look like I am making an overplay"

Time down the bank and shove, shove.

[bennymacca]

i suppose the question here is, would he call with a set here? does it matter if he folds a set 90% of the time to your shove?

secondly, how many times does he have 107.

[Garth Kay]

i suppose the question here is, would he call with a set here? does it matter if he folds a set 90% of the time to your shove?

secondly, how many times does he have 107.

With a shove on the river here you may not be looking for a call, you have the winning hand, you are either looking for Max Value or you are looking to conceal your playing patterns and not reveal information to the table.

Calling is not an option really, if you believe a chop is inevitable then a shove is still the right play. It sends the message that you will river shove with the second or third nuts. It means you can work value bets on the river into your play to extract greater value with made hands.

[bennymacca]

my answer was i double fist pump snap shove here as we have second nuts, (but i do that on 80th nuts as well)

if he plays 10-7 this way then i pay him off and get up and punch him in the face

when i was reading this, my first reaction was limp utg, then call the raise == 2 pair. i would put him on something like 56 that he is wanting to get max value out of you.

but the river is a scare card, and he has now turned his hand into a bluff, thinking you will fold anything but a 7.

having said that, there are plenty of sets or 2 pair hands that might call here, and as garth said, you want max value when you are in this situation

that was my feeling, this is the answer that pokerlistings gave, and i think that it is RETARDED. some of their answers are just silly. they need to give more background a lot of the time

Call. It's unlikely your opponent has T-7s, but it is a possibility. Shoving here might be good against some villains, but against this one it's probably pointless. Just call the raise and expect to chop. Whatever you do, don't fold.

[AceLosesKing]

I think a likely outcome is a chop, so imho shoving really has little value here, unless it could make him think YOU had T7...
Or as trishan says, he could be bluffing you, representing a 7.
So, it comes down to if you think its a bluff? If you think he is, maybe flat and then say "Show us your bluff!" Good for fear equity if your right! Also, if you think he's bluffing then there is no extra value in a shove as he won't call, so a flat is best imho, especially with the statement.

Um, what?

Villian is described as LAG but decent. We have no information on what he gets down to showdown with. Yes, this board is mildly scary for a set/two pair (I'd prob still pay any 7 off with either of those holdings btw, although I'm obv playing it diff) but flatting here is ludicrous. Even if there is 98% chance that he folds worse, there's still a 2% chance that he calls. Which makes shoving optimal (if you're chopping when he calls, which is happening a laaaarge majority of the time).