i was all in on the river!

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bennymacca
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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby bennymacca » Tue Mar 16, 2010 11:34 pm

AJG wrote:I hesitate to mention this, but... flopped quads (and the same rank) twice in half an hour??? This must be a symptom of the whole shuffle issue? (and also something some people (not me) take as indicative of rigging)


i really do hope you are trolling here
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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby AJG » Wed Mar 17, 2010 4:43 am

Not at alll... hence the prefix 'I hesitate to mention this'. This is exactly some of the examples people have cited for backing the position that online poker is rigged.... And one of this things I mentioned (but not specifically) in a follow up post you have read in another thread...
What are the chances of flopping quads twice within 100,000 hands let alone 30 minutes, AND the same rank? I also said I dont buy into their arguments, I have other explanations*, but thought it worth saying anyway...

Why would you hope I am trolling, there are no positive conotations to that term, nor any reason to hope I am doing so?

There ARE people out there who think as I said, and personally sometimes when i see post like 'I flopped Quad 8s twice in 1/2 an hour' it does make me sit back and think... But my reconciliation of this, as I said, is the biased shuffling issue... *also the possibility on smaller sites such as 888 that there is a single process providing all the shuffles which would increase the likelyhood of this type of thing happening, rather than one for each table (or a smaller number)
Image ...11.59% of bad beat stories are just misplayed hands ...

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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby bennymacca » Wed Mar 17, 2010 9:01 am

AJG wrote:Not at alll... hence the prefix 'I hesitate to mention this'. This is exactly some of the examples people have cited for backing the position that online poker is rigged.... And one of this things I mentioned (but not specifically) in a follow up post you have read in another thread...
What are the chances of flopping quads twice within 100,000 hands let alone 30 minutes, AND the same rank? I also said I dont buy into their arguments, I have other explanations*, but thought it worth saying anyway...


with your knowledge of statistics, you should realise that each shuffle is independent of a previous shuffle. just because one unlikely event happens, it has the same probability of occuring the very next hand.

i have seen 2 royals in half an hour. i have been dealt pocket aces 3 times in a row. i have seen, whilst playing on 888, at least 4 times where a flop has been 888. :D but just because one has occured, there isn't some rule that says another one shouldn't happen for a long time. you make these connections in your brain because they are significant hands - you forget those times where the flop was 6 9 2 twice in a row, because it is not significant.

even if the deals are comprimised, why would it be quads twice in a row? you yourself showed that even with a 64 bit machine, you can generate 1.8*10^19 deals. having quads twice in half an hour is still pretty unlikely with this type of number dont you say?


it is human nature to look for patterns, it is how we make sense of the world. even when there are no patterns.

AJG wrote:*also the possibility on smaller sites such as 888 that there is a single process providing all the shuffles which would increase the likelyhood of this type of thing happening, rather than one for each table (or a smaller number)


for what its worth, 888 have the biggest casino in the world attached to them. so i dare say they would have some sort of decent shuffling techniques, and they probably even deal more cards than the poker sites!
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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby muzzington » Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:49 pm

I had this in a sit and go in the space of 3/4 hands.
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We've how about links I would like to know I walk the line scrunches line at how the client Lawrence etc. etc.

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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby Caleb » Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:53 pm

That just shows how bad AQo runs!

What the hell are you doing playing Texas anyway?
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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby muzzington » Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:54 pm

Miss-click.
We've how about links I would like to know I walk the line scrunches line at how the client Lawrence etc. etc.

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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby AceLosesKing » Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:54 pm

Pfft, get some mods fool.
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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby muzzington » Wed Mar 17, 2010 5:59 pm

I have many cards to choose from, but I actually like FT's default cards more than other sites defaults.
We've how about links I would like to know I walk the line scrunches line at how the client Lawrence etc. etc.

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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby briggsyb » Wed Mar 17, 2010 6:55 pm

i reckon hazzahawk learnt the first time with quads :o :o
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Re: i was all in on the river!

Postby maccatak11 » Wed Mar 17, 2010 7:14 pm

haha. took me a while to realise that is a different picture.

Quad 8's against the same person twice in a week is amazing.


(remember the alt+prntscrn tip too briggsy - phone photo's are so hard to see)
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