ok this is my bad beat

[BigPete33]

Krunchie....

OUTS AS A RATIO TO 1.


OUTS TURN RIVER

25 0.88 0.84
24 0.96 0.92
23 1.04 1.00
22 1.14 1.09
21 1.24 1.19
20 1.35 1.30
19 1.47 1.42
18 1.61 1.55
17 1.76 1.70
16 1.94 1.88
15 2.13 2.07
14 2.36 2.29
13 2.62 2.54
12 2.92 2.83
11 3.27 3.18
10 3.70 3.60
9 4.22 4.11
8 4.88 4.75
7 5.71 5.57
6 6.83 6.66
5 8.40 8.20
4 10.75 10.50
3 14.67 14.33
2 22.50 22.00
1 46.00 45.00

With reference to Brett's 'magic number' description in those earlier posts (which I quite liked btw) if the number listed above is lower than the pot odds then the maths says 'call'.

eg: if you are getting 10:1 on your money and you have lower odds of hitting (say, 8:1) then go ahead and do it.

Not the only thing to consider, but I find that chart simplifies it nicely.

[rcon]

eg: if you are getting 10:1 on your money and you have lower odds of hitting (say, 8:1) then go ahead and do it.

Pete is rather a conservative player ( ), so doesn't always take into account implied odds, which means you can still call, even when you are not getting correct odds to call - ie. preflop when you put 100 into a pot of 300 with pocket 2's. So long as everyone has enough to make sure you're getting more than 8:1 on your money if you hit your set, go ahead and call.

[BigPete33]

Did you skip over the part that said "not the only thing to consider" ?

[rcon]

Did you skip over the part that said "not the only thing to consider" ?

No, but I'll never pass up an opportunity to send you up either!

[BigPete33]

you senderupper, you!

[bennymacca]

OUTS AS A RATIO TO 1.

outs as a ratio to 1 are good.

btw, if you have a percentage of 40% to win, this is 100/40 = 2.5:1 as a ratio to 1.

sorry, i may have skipped over this part, being a maths geek and all, it comes second nature to me to do those calculations in my head

[Origami]

OUTS AS A RATIO TO 1.

outs as a ratio to 1 are good.

btw, if you have a percentage of 40% to win, this is 100/40 = 2.5:1 as a ratio to 1.

sorry, i may have skipped over this part, being a maths geek and all, it comes second nature to me to do those calculations in my head

so if you go in [ hard with mid pairs ]. trying to win on a 40% with a 2;5;1 ratio does that mean you are going to lose 60 hands in 100 and equate to a " losing geek" whose good at calculating stuff ???????????????

[bennymacca]

if someone gives me odds to call, i am calling EVERY time. it means you are getting a positive expectation value.

bruce, i am not sure you get the concept of pot odds.

if i have a 40% chance of winning the hand, and if i happen to win the pot i will win 250 for every hundred chips i put in the pot, this means i will be in front in the long run.

its like saying i am going to flip a coin 100 times, and you have to bet 50 cents on every flip, but i will give you 55 cents every time you guess correctly.

sure you will lose some, you might even lose 10 in a row, but in the long run, it is a winning play, because you are getting winning odds.


in a tournament, you obviously dont wanna get yourself in a situation where its all your chips in for a 52/48 race - even though you are in front, this is prolly not the best idea. but if its a 60/40 race or better, then you should be getting your chips in most of the time.


edit: i was prolly a bit harsh on bruce, edited accordingly

[AceLosesKing]

There are times in tournaments though, when you need to take a coinflip. When you're shortstacked, say under 5 BBs, and don't have time to get into a 60/40 situation, and coinflips are the best you can hope for, go for it. If I'm near the money bubble I'd rather take a flip and double up, be in the chance for some good money then limp in (ba dum psh) for a small return on your money.

[stevo]

There are also times in tournaments when even though you think you have pot odds (or are calling on a coin flip) you still shouldn't be calling, especially around the bubble in a fairly flat type payout structure (a Sit N Go with 50/30/20 payout is a good example of this). This is known as "bubble factor" for anyone that has read up on this. The basic idea, and this applies to all tournaments to a certain degree but ESPECIALLY in flatter type payout structures on the bubble, is that the chips you win are worth less than the chips you lose so you actually need better than just the standard pot odds to make a call. In this case you need to apply a "bubble factor" which takes into account this fact that the chips you lose are worth more than the chips you gain. For instance, if you were a medium stack on the bubble of a 9 person sit'n'go and you had to make a call against a large stack unless you have good odds of winning you should be folding as taking a big hit to your stack here puts you in danger of not finishing in the money where as winning probably doesn't increase your chances of making the money by that much. Mathematically, this comes down to the fact that the bubble factor in a flat payout structure tournament can actually be quite high depending on what stacks are bumping up against each other, which means that pure pot odds can actually be deceiving in these situations.

In normal top-heavy payout structure tourneys (i.e. an MTT tournament) you probably need to take these risks to give you more chance of finishing higher up and getting a bigger return. The bubble factor doesn't apply at all to cash games or winner takes all tourneys, there you can take the pot odds at face value to help you decide whether to make a call or not.