Poker Question July 13th

[muzzington]

When I looked at the question, the thing I took into account first was the opponent was aggressive, then looked at the rest of the hand.

[BigPete33]

I'm fairly sure he meant fold on the 3-bet.

If you reshove he's aither a) calling or b) folding so which one do you want him to do? Do you want him to actually call and then you're hoping to hit your flush?

Given the statement about him constantly 3-betting it could very well be a case of defending his blind (he was in a bling right? I cbf scrolling back) but what would he defend his blind with in the first place? It might just be any paint = 'I will defend my blind' and you're still behind.


Either option is fine I think. If you reshove knowing that you probably need to hit your flush then ok that's the decision you made and you knew you were doing it. If you fold and wait for a better spot then that's fine too.

Garth suggested call. I think that's also fine if you think you can make them lay it down on the river but you'd need to know what they are likely to have which is much harder with a wide range of starting hands.

[muzzington]

If you reshove he's either a) calling or b) folding so which one do you want him to do? Do you want him to actually call and then you're hoping to hit your flush?

Yes, those are the two options.

It's a semi-bluff, obviously in this situation you'd prefer a fold, and if you're doing it here you have a good feeling he will fold because he's been aggressive and defending his big blind. More often than not he'd have something like pocket 7's and he'd probably fold that too.

[BigPete33]

Someone folding a pair?

I'm not so sure

[Garth Kay]

I really dislike the raise all in here.

I agree with the comments on fold equity, but I do not see the point on semi bluffing an aggressive player at this stage. There are better traps that can be laid.

There is no mention of his post flop tendencies either, so your shove could still be called by a loose aggressive player. I prefer to either flat the flop and hope to connect with the board in some manner of fold the flop.

Calling here also means my opponent is still in control of the hand and out of position on the turn. I minimise my risk and involvement in the hand by flatting the flop and deciding on my play on the turn, a spade makes my hand and if the turn bricks out I can get away from my hand with minimal losses.

All of you are approaching this as how is the best way to win this hand, I am approaching it from a point of view that I have a Laggy opponent who is chaotic and could do anything as I don't have enough information, so which play can possibly maximise my value and profit if I do make a hand and what play also minimises my potential losses if I do brick out.

I seriously doubt you are guaranteed a fold and although his opening range is potentially huge you have no information on what he is 3 betting you with. He is protecting his blind, but his potential range could be smaller than expected.

With the information at hand a semi bluff is a decent play, but I lose value in this hand by playing it this way. If I shove on every flopped flush draw over an ag player I am never getting paid off for my big hands.

I just don't like it.

[bennymacca]

Do we all agree that mathematically it's an easy fold. So the only reason we are calling/pushing is because he is an agressive player?

when are you talking about a fold here? please expand on your thoughts.

Post flop pot-odds and odds of making the flush don't justify a call so if you push it's really a semi-bluff or primarily because he has been agressive.

If he has a K - he is calling here and it's a coin flip (a three sided coin)

both of those statements are right

but how often does he have a king there? not very often i dont think. the only kings in his range are AK, KK, KQs, KQo (even though he is 3betting wide, he still is prolly not doing it with KJ or less) maybe we should include KJ as well.

the critical thing here is that you have significant fold equity.

you have 36% equity if he calls here.

doing a bit of maths, you can work out your ev.

EV = (% that he folds) + (% that he calls) * (% that WE win and he calls)

substituting (% that he calls) for (1 - % that he folds ) gives

EV = (% that he folds) + (1 - % that he folds) * 0.36


now for a +EV play, the EV needs to be above 50% we can work this out mathematically

x + (1-x)*.36 = 0.5
x + 0.36 -0.36x = 0.5
0.64x = 0.14
x = 0.218

so this means, if he is going to fold more than 21.8% of the time to your shove, it is a +EV play

have i got my maths right?

[BigPete33]

And there we have it.

I just don't like it.

Mr Horse has spoken

[bennymacca]

garth is right, it may not be the best value option.

but i dont like calling here because it is not the nut flush draw.

if i had an ace high flush draw , so i could be sure that my flush was the nuts, then i would be more inclined to call.

[BigPete33]

wtf benny the cunt?


You're aware he's likely to call anyway when you rejam? Does it matter that it's not the nut flush then?

[trishan]

have i got my maths right?

Spot on benny the cunt. Just remember though this is a $1/$2 table and players rarely play +EV and this is particularly true given his agressive style.

Also remember that even though the situation is +EV, folding and waiting for a better spot is also +EV.