Question of the Day 21/08

[bennymacca]

there might be a tiny bit of FE in him folding a 7 as well, thinking you have 107 although prolly negligible.

even if he has a 7, putting him to the test making him put all his chips in the middle for just a chop is still a tough ask. definitely worth putting the pressure on him i reckon.

[AceLosesKing]

That too, Benjamin.

[Scotty]

my answer was i double fist pump snap shove here as we have second nuts, (but i do that on 80th nuts as well)

Without the time to elaborate right now, it's a shove for mine.

[Garth Kay]

In all seriousness, what play has the the most likely success rate for maximum value and if max value isn't achieved instigating a fold from villain.

I think a call on this river is bloody pointless, you are beating his range 95% of the time, chopping 3% of the time and losing 2% of the time (tops) I haven't poker stoved this but I am pretty sure this is close against the top 30% of hands; we could even remove the top 5% of hands if we wanted too from this equation.

Call is "Kleemann's nickname".

Shove is the best play here.

[AceLosesKing]

In all seriousness, what play has the the most likely success rate for maximum value and if max value isn't achieved instigating a fold from villain.

I think a call on this river is bloody pointless, you are beating his range 95% of the time, chopping 3% of the time and losing 2% of the time (tops) I haven't poker stoved this but I am pretty sure this is close against the top 30% of hands; we could even remove the top 5% of hands if we wanted too from this equation.

Call is "Kleemann's nickname".

Shove is the best play here.

if you think that's my nickname.

[Caleb]

I voted fold just to be unique.

But I still shove all-in.

[bennymacca]

exactly garth, calling is extremely weak tight, you have the effective nuts.

10-7 is the most unlikely of all made hands he could have here i think, along with 6-9

things you beat

56, 89, 55, 66, 99, 88, and other hands including bluffs

things you chop with

67, 78, 77, 79, 7X

things you lose to

107


to me, there is no justification for a call whatsoever, unless you can soul read that dude. a shove is unlikely to get paid too often, but a 5% chance of getting paid off vs a 2% chance of getting stacked, is better than a 0% chance of getting paid with a 2% chance of losing half your stack.

i am going to stove the above ranges

[Garth Kay]

I think a likely outcome is a chop, so imho shoving really has little value here, unless it could make him think YOU had T7...
Or as trishan says, he could be bluffing you, representing a 7.
So, it comes down to if you think its a bluff? If you think he is, maybe flat and then say "Show us your bluff!" Good for fear equity if your right! Also, if you think he's bluffing then there is no extra value in a shove as he won't call, so a flat is best imho, especially with the statement.

Um, what?

Villian is described as LAG but decent. We have no information on what he gets down to showdown with. Yes, this board is mildly scary for a set/two pair (I'd prob still pay any 7 off with either of those holdings btw, although I'm obv playing it diff) but flatting here is ludicrous. Even if there is 98% chance that he folds worse, there's still a 2% chance that he calls. Which makes shoving optimal (if you're chopping when he calls, which is happening a laaaarge majority of the time).

Actually he is described as loose but decent, no mention of whether he is aggro or passive

[bennymacca]

ok, i have done a stove analysis here.

i think we could probably even narrow down this range more as well.

also, i have left all 4 combinations of 107 in there as well, which in my opinion means that its over-represented in his range. if anyone wants me to add or remove hands

i included a single AKo hand (i.e not all combinations) as a pure air bet, as dont think he has air too often here.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

48 games 0.005 secs 9,600 games/sec

Board: 5d 6s 9c 3d 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.583% 35.42% 29.17% 17 14.00 { As7s }
Hand 1: 35.417% 06.25% 29.17% 3 14.00 { 99-55, A7s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, AcKs, A7o }

[Scotty]

This hand doesn't require so much analysis, IMO.