When are odds not enough?

[bennymacca]

I just wanted to know that people are thinking about the whole subject of pot odds.

Do people use pot odds regularly in their play? i certainly do, but sometimes it means i am calling when i know i am behind, which is not a good thing.

prime example

At Tanunda tuesday night, riverlanders have come down for a game, there are 100 runners. its not my usual venue, but a good result will send me shooting up the regional leaderboard, and i am gunning for a sky city seat. there are 18 runners left, blinds are 1K-2K, i have 11K left and i am UTG with



i flat call, and so do 4 other people, so we have a 10K pot.

flop comes

i check it, and it gets checked around to honi who is the last player to act, and she immediately goes all in for her remaining 2K

now honi is in the main a tight-passive player, so if she puts all her money in the pot, u know she has something. i put her on a good ace.

so, i am 99.99% sure that i am behind at this point.

i did some quick maths in my head at the time,

3 more jacks
2 more 10s
runner runner straight and runner runner flush possibilities

5 outs = approx 5*2*2 = 20%, add a bit for runner runner possibliities, minus some for when i hit but honi improves also, so prolly cancels out.

this gives me approx 5:1 win odds.

pot odds are 2K into a 12K pot, so they are 6:1.

so in other words, i have the odds to call, even though i am behind.

in the end, robbie and i both called, cant remember what robbie had, but honi turned over , so she had me well and truly beat, and the turn and river were no help for anyone.

15 minutes later, i ended up having 7K and 6K of it going into the BB, and that was me out.

would you make the call? in a deepstack tourney, i think this is an absolute no-brainer call, but in NPL i think it is a tough one given that we are playing a super turbo game with generally a lot of calling stations. this means strategy leans towards waiting till you have a good hand and hoping to get paid for it.


did i make the right call?

[rcon]

I voted "Tough Decision - Depends" as you're in a bubble-ish situation. Odds be damned in that sort of position - you're not so much playing to build your stack, but rather to stay alive to make the stack you have spent time building worthwhile.

You've also got all those people acting behind you - possibly increasing your odds, but some of them may well be on a range of hands that includes your outs? Odds are only really any good in a tourney if you're still going to be alive at the end of the hand???

I don't really like the call - but can certainly excuse it

[Bob B]

I just wanted to know that people are thinking about the whole subject of pot odds.


did i make the right call?

"NO" and my reasons are as follows.

Firstly, you indicated wanting to get further on the regionals leader board.

My second reason is that after knowing your above intentions and also the fact that you knew the player in question plays very tight. Plus, there were others still in the pot who may have hit.

Thirdly, there was an Ace on the board and again the tight player indicated she was prepared to go allin and so was Robby.

And for the fourth reason, you read her like a book and was prepared to throw caution to the wind with 3 other players including Robby also a tightish player who could have also hit the ace.

And finally the fact that there were good pot odds and a few outs for yourself and may I say others too, that you forgot what you were originally trying to achieve. And that was to make points and improve your Regional standings.

I know the pundits such as Garth and maybe Brett and a heap more would say you did the maths and took the chance. But, your chances of making good points were down to luck as you didn't have the best possible hand at the flop.

Had you not indicated your points concern I would probably say you did the right thing regarding the odds and outs available to you. And for the sake of another $2k it was worth calling. However, if Robby hit and reraised, then what would you have done??????

It looks like rcon and myself agree on this one based on your reasons for playing there in the first place.

[AceLosesKing]

When are odds not good enough? When you know you're behind.

I don't like that call. Straightaway, as I was reading your story, I just knew that Honi had an A. You knew it too. So instantly, you know you're putting your chips in when you're behind. Not something you should really ever be doing.

Now, if you were last to act (after her all in) or there was only 1 caller, the call ain't so bad. In fact, if no one had called her all in, that's pretty much an insta call.

From UTG, I would've folded.

[rcon]

When are odds not good enough? When you know you're behind.

Huh? How often do you think you're ahead when you are still drawing to a flush?

[bennymacca]

Firstly, you indicated wanting to get further on the regionals leader board.

that was my secondary objective, first was to win and get the sky city seat - but i could have folded to points

Robby also a tightish player

you must be thinking of a different robby bob. i wont say his full name here, but he is an "A7 all in" sort of person, so i knew he didn't have an ace - i think he had KQ for a gutshot or something along those lines, but i can't really remember.

From UTG, I would've folded.

yeah i think this is the only thing i did wrong in the hand - shouldn't have been playing 10J from early pos in the first place.

once i was in the hand, i think i had to call, but i probably should have folded preflop anyway

but it also depends on what sort of player u are i think. i like to carp on about pot odds as everyone that has ever played with me will attest to, and a common question i get is "if you have the odds to call all in on a 1 outer draw, would you?" my common reply is how did u get into a pot that is about 50 times your own stack and not have your chips in the middle already, but anyway, i would call every time if i have the odds in that situation, but a lot of people wouldn't

[maccatak11]

Yeah you probably had odds to call, but when you calculate your outs, it kinda diminishes a bit when even one of your outs may still not win you the hand.

Did you consider hands such as AT, A9, AJ, KQ, JJ, QT, KT or even 78 (late position). These were all very possible calling hands that the late position player could have had, but it would also mean that even if you hit one of your outs you would still not win the hand. This makes if a bit of a iffy call in my opinion.

With 10J UTG, you also probably needed to either fold or push. Yes you probably would have got called with AQ anyway, but you put 20ish percent of your stack in here by just calling, and with 3k of your stack about to be committed as blinds in the next two hands - this was half your stack in 3 hands.

I might have folded here and the worst that would have happened was that you were on the button with 8k instead of bugger all.



Having said that, i was out just before the second break at the TH, so im not one to talk.

[Nevah play JJ]

I must confess I am a NO person to this question.

For the following reasons:
At best you have a pair of 10's.. not the most impressive pair ever.

You went up against someone that is in your own words "a tight-passive player". Unless she is for once breaking with tradition, you were behind from the start.

The only way out really was a runner, runner... What are the chances that that happens? I realise it does, but honestly, is it worth throwing in most of your chipstack to chase?

There are always more deals to come around, why throw away effort after foolishness by continuing to bet?

However, the one and only reason I would say bet is because this is a knock out type of tournament, I guess the only way to knock others out is by betting against them when they do go all in, in the hopes that they are bluffing or you do get lucky and knock them out.

Hope my thoughts make sense..

Great forum question though, it is awesome to see others thoughts in regards to this...

[Nevah play JJ]

I should have put this question in the answer above, but I do want to ask something:

Do you think it is possible to overthink odds while playing poker?
I was reading what benny the cunt put above and am just wondering if it is.

[AceLosesKing]

When are odds not good enough? When you know you're behind.

Huh? How often do you think you're ahead when you are still drawing to a flush?

No, I don't mean in situations like that. Say you have amazing odds to call on the turn, or river, but you know... you just know that you're behind, and you have a very small chance of winning the hand (say a one outer). There are times when calculations about pot odds can clog your brain and override the fact that really, you should be folding.

For example, I witnessed this hand last season. At the river, player A bet something like 50 into a 1500 pot (not sure on the exact numbers, but it was something stupid like that). Player B (last to act, was heads up) said that he's behind, but he has to call. Sure enough, he calls, hands are shown and player B loses (I think he had pockets under the board or something). Now in the grand scheme of things losing 50 (to win 1500) isn't going to hurt you, but I just wonder sometimes if players read too much into pot odds and don't take note into what their opponent has.