Hand Discussion

[bennymacca]

In this hand of a six-max game online, a very tight opponent raises to $8 from early position. You choose to flat-call in the small blind with [js] [jh] and you take a flop heads-up of [Th 5c 3s]. You check and he bets to $14.

what do you do?

vote above, and tell me what you would do, with a reason

[Garth Kay]

Obviously 1/2 right?

I think I would call the flop bet and possibly make a play on the turn if no A,K,Q comes.

Obviously as a very tight opponent he's range here is TT - AA as well as strong Ace's. He could be c betting the flop and I would just float his bet here. Personally I hate the flat from the small blind with a marginal hand against this opponents raising range.

A fold is also a serious contemplation, but now that I have flatted pre here a fold is a stupid decision.

There is also no info on effective stack sizes.

I would go with 75% time flat the flop and possibly raise the turn. 25% of the time I would probably check raise the flop and the fold to any jam or re raise.

Actually after writing that, I would probably revers those percentages, 25% of the time flat the flop and make aggressive play on turn - check raise. 75% of the time I will check raise the flop and fold to a re raise. If he flats I am thinking over card draw, strong overpair and I am been trapped, or monster as in flopped top set.

[bennymacca]

yeah 1/2 6max cash game, $200 stacks

sorry, forgot to mention this

[AceLosesKing]

tl;dr

This is the convo benny the cunt and I had on MSN about the hand. At first I was firmly in the "raise" category, but after hearing his thought process, I like "call" a lot better. Can defintely agree with calling (after deliberating about it for a good 15 mins). Posting the whole thing because it shows benny the cunt's though process, which is actually on the right track for once

- Aaron - says:
Raise.
Call. Calling is by far the best option. If you raise, your opponent is rarely going to call with a worse hand. If you fold, you will be folding the best hand a lot of the time. So the best play is to just call and play poker on the later streets.
Wtf kind of advice is this
Ben says:
call any day of the week man
- Aaron - says:
They do realise he FOLDS all worse hands too
Ben says:
why raise?
that board is dry as fuck. no draws at all to worry about
i would suspect that he is c-betting with AK
- Aaron - says:
So you can see where you are
Ben says:
why do you need to know that on the flop? you already have a range given that he has raised utg. i would say any pocket pair 8 or up, AK, AQ, AJs, A10s,
thats about it
so you are only losing to qq-aa, 1010,
thats it
he is leading on the flop with AK, AQ, and any of his pocket pair range
- Aaron - says:
And with a reraise on that flop he folds 8s up (without a set), any two broadway cards
Ben says:
we want him to fire a second barrel with 99 or AK
- Aaron - says:
What if you flat and a K or A turn pops off
Ben says:
yeah, but why do we want him to fold? we are in front, we want him to put more money in the pot
- Aaron - says:
You have to fold it
Ben says:
yeah, but the chances of that are small - like 15%
- Aaron - says:
And it never said he raised UTG either
It said EP
Ben says:
well same thing
- Aaron - says:
No, its not.
Ben says:
his range doesn't change that much
- Aaron - says:
Not that much, but its important to the Q
Im raising here most of the time.
Ben says:
well add 55 to his range then
thats about it
why raise and make him fold A10 or AK or 99?
because he is folding these here a good percentage of the time
so you ar enot getting paid off
- Aaron - says:
This is not a board we can get "paid off" on though
Maybe he fires a second barrel and we flat/raise again
On the turn, he will know that he is behind
Ben says:
yes it is, its heaps try. he will fire a second barrel with most of his range dont you think?
- Aaron - says:
So he check/folds the river
And as you mentioned, TT-AA are in his range
Ben says:
yeah, thats 1 more bet you get out of him
- Aaron - says:
So do we wanna be playing for stacks against this dude? No
Ben says:
so why raise if you dont wanna play for stacks?
what if he re-raises you?
what then?
makes it hard to get a way from
- Aaron - says:
Its a fold if he rr you
Saying that, at the table I'd prob ship it in
Much easier to say that away from the table
Ben says:
but why? if you ship it in, what is calling you that you beat?
A10 at a pinch, everything else you beat is folding so fast its not funny
so you have turned your hand into a bluff
- Aaron - says:
Well its easy to see that now that weve spent 10 years analysing that hand
On the table it'd be like zomg overpair
Ben says:
you just said you dont wanna play for stacks, yet you want to raise. why not keep the pot small, and get A10 or 99 ro pay you off
or even AK firing a couple of barrels
- Aaron - says:
Ok, so say we call
And the turn is a blank, and he fires.
Then what
Ben says:
it also says he is VERY tight. so he may well have us smashed. but we surely cant fold here.
well then i would raise the turn, or maybe even flat it again. if it is another duece, then i flat it. if it is an ace, then i raise. i want him to fold his QQ or KK to an ace turn

Aces are the best cards to raise on, because you are folding everything out below

i would put this guy on 99,1010, QQ, KK or AA. so if this is the case, we cant' fold just yet, so i would just flat it
- Aaron - says:
I like the raise on the A idea
Ben says:
lets say we call the flop
if an ace peels, that is a really good card for us, because the only part of his range that likes the ace that he is c-betting with on the flop is AK or AA
so he might fold QQ or KK to us
krunchie said raise as well, so i thought it was interesting. i put it on the forum
- Aaron - says:
What did you say first
Ben says:
i said call
its one of those situations where you are eithe rway ahead, or way behind

so raising, does 2 things. it folds the hands you are ahead of, and gives your opponent mass value if you are ahead.

so raising is a major -EV play i reckon
if you are behind i meant
folds out worse hands, and you are basically shipping money over to the other player if he has you beat.
so a raise doesn't accomplish anything, except letting you take a small pot down
instead of getting 1 or 2 mor ebets out of a worse hand
if he fires a second barrel, and oyu call, then thats the same amount of money inthe pot as if you would have raised the flop anyway
so you are getting another card for the same money


if you call the flop here, you have to call the turn 90% of the time
but thats fairly safe, there are no draws out there
lol can you tell i have been reading a lot of 2plus2 lately?
lol
- Aaron - says:
I wouldn't say major -EV
But I get ya
Ben says:
do i make a good argument?
- Aaron - says:
Def.
You've convinced me.
Ben says:
it is definitely major -EV

think if he has 99 again, he will fire the turn again, and u call or raise

then u get 1 more bet out of him

since the turn bet has to be more than the flop bet, thats prolly at least twice, maybe 3 times more money you are getting out of him on the turn
- Aaron - says:
Bar TT-AA, he folds everything else. Which as we agreed, is part of his range
So its not MAJOR -ev
Ben says:
small part of his range
but if we raise, he shoves and we fold on the flop, is that giving the same amount of money to him as whne we call then call
i would say that it would be similar
so we are paying off Aces the same in either case
but we are getting more value out of hands we beat
so your gonna call my ass down with JJ when i bluff 3 barrels into you now?
- Aaron - says:
Pfft not at npl I am raising you every f*cking day of the week
Ben says:
not talking about NPL
i would shove in NPL

As you can see, we put a lot of thought into our NPL tournys.

[Garth Kay]

cash play is different to tourney play as well guys.

[AceLosesKing]

cash play is different to tourney play as well guys.

And its NPL

[bennymacca]

cash play is different to tourney play as well guys.

And its NPL

this is not supposed to be an NPL scenario

it is supposed to be a general cash game scenario

[AceLosesKing]

cash play is different to tourney play as well guys.

And its NPL

this is not supposed to be an NPL scenario

it is supposed to be a general cash game scenario

I know. Which is why we put though into it. And its why we said we'd just shove over the top in NPL, because its NPL. Didn't think I had to explain what that statement meant, figured you'd just get it.

[Garth Kay]

Bloody Hell I didnt read the whole thing.

I skimmed.

def tl;dr

[BigPete33]

my 1st thought is 'he doesn't want me to call' and am thinking along the lines of pocket 9's and he's maybe worried what I've called with preflop.

That board looks pretty dry so a raise on the flop might induce a fold if he's that tight and if you get called there you can almost smell the set.


But my form lately is SHOCKING so that could be entirely wrong.