You're a Bunch of Factors

Ok, let me set the scene. Home shed game. I consider myself a big winner at these games, as the opponents are quite easy to exploit and value bet mercilessly for a big profit. Tonight we were playing 10/20c, 8 handed. All regulars.

UTG raises to 80c. I am UTG+1 with [9d] [8d], I call. UTG+2 calls, MP calls, HJ folds, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls. So a $4 pot preflop (this is not unusual).

I flop gin, [8h] [8s] [7h]. UTG leads for $2. I call. UTG+2 calls, MP calls, the rest fold. I found UTG's bet to be completely odd, as he knows that this is a very wet board (he is a thinking player), so he wouldn't be betting into the entire table without anything big. My read at the time was that I was up against a higher pair.

I decided to slowplay my hand, hoping someone behind me would raise (not concerned about the other villians after watching their reactions in calling, and the players making the call. Their range for calling the flop is absolutely huge, like ATo). I know a raise is probably more optimal here, but I wanted to get paid. Ok, so everyone called. $10 pot now.

The turn is a [2s]. Excellent card, all draws missed. UTG checks. I decide to take initiative and bet $3.90. UTG+2 folds, MP tanks and calls. I know for sure that he is on some draw, and I hate my bet sizing. UTG thinks for a few moments and calls.

The river is the [Qc]. Hello motherf*ckers, all draws bricked. UTG tanks for a while, and slowly checks. I think, and bet $6.50. MP folds pretty quickly. UTG shoves all in for $19.80. I have $5~ behind. His shove completely throws me against the wall, I am shocked. He is not the type of opponent to put in this much, into a pot this size, with anything less than the nuts, basically.

What do you do? Consider his line and the fact that he is a very good opponent.

Nicely told AK

Very tough spot to be in, but you are now staring at a $30 buck plus pot, and i would be very tempted to put in my last $5 to have a stab at it.

The way you describe your oponent, would he lead out for $2 utg with 77 or 78 after flopping a fullhouse, if he is a chris fergeson fan he will.
To me more likely that he has the case 8 in his hand and now its going to come down to kickers.

Indeed a tough spot, throw your money in there mate as you can allways rebuy with some of that 5k you now have

Money is going in!

Don't forget to sigh as you call.

QQ for my mind.

He thought you were betting a draw. 77 is a possibility, but I like QQ for a hand made on the river. Simplistic, but that is often the way of it.

and, yes, your bet sizing on the turn sucks.

However you're calling your last $5 off regardless - 6:1.

i heard that the opponent was a complete douche

So what did you have benny the cunt?

QQ is likely.

It does sound like an overpair, unfortunate he hit it on the river or flopped the set of 7's.

But you aren't folding here, it's a cooler.

On another not I finally FT'd last night, finished fifth when a loose ag player flopped the flush against my 77. Strong FT with some name players. Oh well I'm 800 richer, but the $2,500 for first would have been nice.

Scott wrote:So what did you have benny the cunt?

someone even doucheir than me!!!


and yeah fwiw, 6:1 makes it an automatic crying call

Ok, so everyone is telling me to call. Can we admit though, that we are beat like 85% of the time we put it in here? Isn't that enough to find a fold? Cos that's what I thought I was looking at, a call on pot odds, but I just knew he had me. Everytime I call here he is going to roll a better hand on me. I should also add that SB was all in for 60c, creating a $1 side pot. So villain always had to show to collect the pot.

Does this change anyone's decision?

AceLosesKing wrote:Ok, so everyone is telling me to call. Can we admit though, that we are beat like 85% of the time we put it in here? Isn't that enough to find a fold? Cos that's what I thought I was looking at, a call on pot odds, but I just knew he had me. Everytime I call here he is going to roll a better hand on me. I should also add that SB was all in for 60c, creating a $1 side pot. So villain always had to show to collect the pot.

Does this change anyone's decision?

with 6:1 odds, you only have to be right more than 1 in 6 to make it a profitable call.

cant fold here ever