You're a Bunch of Factors

This was the first hand villian had played since being moved to our table (about 30 hands).

Poker Stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: t3855 M = 51.40
CO: t975 M = 13
BTN: t3220 M = 42.93
SB: t2495 M = 33.27
BB: t4565 M = 60.87
UTG: t5540 M = 73.87
UTG+1: t2765 M = 36.87
Hero (UTG+2): t9240 M = 123.20
MP1: t3345 M = 44.60

Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is UTG+2 with [9s] [9d]
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t50, Hero raises to t150, 5 folds, BB calls t100, UTG+1 calls t100

Flop: (t475) [4c] [4s] [5s] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets t150, Hero raises to t425, BB folds, UTG+1 calls t275

Turn: (t1325) [7c] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t700, UTG+1 raises to t1450

Hero ???

Advice for all streets please.

This is a really tough spot! Pre-flop raise is fine, as is the flop and turn bet. I'd say he has a pocket pair 88+. Either way, I don't think you can just flat here. Either push or fold and I am more inclined to the fold given it's still early and you are not too commited.

trishan wrote:This is a really tough spot! Pre-flop raise is fine, as is the flop and turn bet. I'd say he has a pocket pair 88+. Either way, I don't think you can just flat here. Either push or fold and I am more inclined to the fold given it's still early and you are not too commited.

I actually hate my flop raise size.

Any info on villain? Being stars, this is L3, yeah?

AceLosesKing wrote:

trishan wrote:This is a really tough spot! Pre-flop raise is fine, as is the flop and turn bet. I'd say he has a pocket pair 88+. Either way, I don't think you can just flat here. Either push or fold and I am more inclined to the fold given it's still early and you are not too commited.

I actually hate my flop raise size.

Oh I see, I missed the fact that he had already bet. Yes probably could have bet a little harder here and then a call would be a good signal to slow down.

AceLosesKing wrote:I actually hate my flop raise size.

From a neutral position, that raise looks like AK/AQ to me.

Scott wrote:Any info on villain? Being stars, this is L3, yeah?

L3?

It was literally the first hand he had played.

21,770 games 0.031 secs 3,928,064 games/sec

Board: 4s 4c 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.025% 57.64% 00.39% 70185 472.50 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 41.975% 41.59% 00.39% 50640 472.50 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


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AceLosesKing wrote:

Scott wrote:Any info on villain? Being stars, this is L3, yeah?

L3?

It was literally the first hand he had played.

level 3

I missed the part about first hand since being moved though. My mistake.

edit: about a million posts before mine, but i think its still relevant

preflop fine obv

on the flop, your raise sizing is too small i think, as you haven't really scared away any draws that decided to fire. i would go to 600-700 here.

on the turn, maybe betting a bit more as well, maybe 1000.

as played, its a fold i think. you are still really deep, no need to be stacking off with these types of hands.

what range do you have him on?

i would have 45, 67s, 44-JJ as there was no 3bet pre, AKs. anything else in his range do you think?

trishan, i think your range is way too wide there

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42,570 games 0.001 secs 42,570,000 games/sec

Board: 4c 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.308% 44.20% 01.11% 18815 472.50 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 54.692% 53.58% 01.11% 22810 472.50 { JJ-44, AsKs, 7s6s, 54s, 54o }



thats pretty marginal i would think. when your m is over 100 its an easy fold i think