AcQc on a flop with two clubs - Calculation of odds.

[trishan]

Hey guys, this hand is one for those math buffs. I have no reads on this table as I just came here. I was wandering if I was getting the right odds to make a call. Intuition told me I was getting pretty good odds to call but is there a good case for folding here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($11.30)
UTG ($7.10)
MP ($6.45)
CO ($13.20)
Button ($6.40)
SB ($11.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A
UTG calls $0.10, MP bets $0.30, 1 fold, Button calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, MP calls $0.70, Button calls $0.70

Flop: ($3.15) 5, 2, 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $2, MP raises to $5.45 (All-In), 1 fold

trishan09??

[bennymacca]

so, you have 3.45 left to call, and the pot is 2+5.45+3.15 = 10.60 right?

thus, you are getting 3:1 to call.

now, the odds of hitting a flush are approx 36% or 2.7:1.

so in that case, the odds are marginal.

but we also have to factor in that the villain doesn't always have trips here, and will show up with an overpair heaps of times here. so we could have as many as 6 outs as well.


this is an easy call imo. i am going to go stove a range. gimme 2 secs

[Garth Kay]

Poker Stove this against your opponents potential range and your equity in the hand equals the odds of making the winning hand.

Against >JJ and AT+ (excluding AK) you are the favourite on this flop. Money goes in.

[AceLosesKing]

You haz nut flush draws.

[bennymacca]

cant be bothered stoving any more. imo this is an overpair like every single time, there are basically no fives in his range.

so that gives you 15 outs, not 9.

if you run into AA or 22 or A5 then pay the man and move on.

[muzzington]

You have a backdoor straight draw, double first pump call.

[bennymacca]

wheeeeeeel!!!!!

[trishan]

He did end up having an overpair - JJ. I had the flush draw plus two over cards.

What thinkest thou of the following range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

71,280 games 0.005 secs 14,256,000 games/sec

Board: 5h 2c 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.801% 46.68% 06.12% 33276 4360.50 { AcQc }
Hand 1: 47.199% 41.08% 06.12% 29283 4360.50 { 99+, 22, AJs+, A5s, AJo+, A5o }


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[bennymacca]

AJo+?

also, when u entered AJs+, did u remove the suited heart and diamond and club possibillities?

[trishan]

How do you do that? I have also seen people just shove AQ/AK hands on any flop just because it is a good starting hand...