You're a Bunch of Factors

This is the first hand of a $4.40 180 man SnG on Stars. Should I have fired the turn?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 4.4 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
Hero (BB) (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Hero's M: 50.00

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
3 folds, MP2 calls t20, 1 fold, CO calls t20, 1 fold, SB bets t80, Hero raises to t200, 2 folds, SB calls t120

Flop: (t440) 10, J, 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t300, SB calls t300

Turn: (t1040) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t1040) K (2 players)
SB bets t200

Hero???

I think its a sigh call. Then shake your head when villain slowrolls AQ.

Why check behind on the turn? I think this pot could have been taken down there.

CT

Conspiracy Theorist wrote:I think its a sigh call. Then shake your head when villain slowrolls AQ.

Why check behind on the turn? I think this pot could have been taken down there.

CT

Yeh, looking back probably a good spot to bet.

i would probably 3bet more preflop

on the flop however, boards with TJ on them are the WORST to cbet, especially in 3bet pots, because if they haven't got a T or J in their hand (or an overpair) then they have a draw like 90% of the time, and a cbet isn't going to work. especially since the board also has 2 hearts.

but as played, yes you probably should have barrelled the turn as well. betting flop then checking back turn makes it pretty obvious that you don't have a hand. but i dont think its a good spot to cbet in the first place.

as played, on the river you are getting 6:1, make the call and make a note.

As played check flop/fold turn if he fires.

Call river.

Your pre flop three bet I like, especially early in a tournament. Sizing is fine.

I like the c bet on the flop; this early in a tournament you perhaps can go a bit lighter in position perhaps half to two thirds of pot. This early in the tournament with these stacks you will soon find out where you are in the hand.

The only problem with half potting flop is that too many experienced players this does look like (and quite often is) a weak "i've missed the flop" bet, especially from someone who has 3 bet early in a tournament OOP. Otherwise it's the I have a monster "something like top set" bet. LOL.

Once villain calls behind his hand range is slightly more defined and just about all of his range sucks for that board. He either has overcards for the straight/flush draw, overpair, flopped top or middle set or quite possibly flopped two pair.

You need to check behind on the turn simply because all of his range is calling any bet less than pot sized and moving all in to take down the pot means that you might be called. Control the pot at this stage and get to a river and try to get to the river for a showdown.

The river card sucks and sucks bad. His flush didn't get there but quite possibly AQ/Q9 did and a lot of his range from the flop still has us beat. The value bet on the river simply has to be called. You are not getting your opponent to fold any hands that have you beat here by check raising. It's simply call.

If you do raise the river for whatever reason then it's a snap muck if villain three bet shoves.

With the way the hand went down and with no information on your opponent I put him on any of the following hands in order of possibility, the following hands: AQ, KQ, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, KJ, QJ, TJ, T9s, 89s, 67s and as you can see you don't beat many of these hands.

Garth Kay wrote:If you do raise the river for whatever reason then it's a snap muck if villain three bet shoves.

With the way the hand went down and with no information on your opponent I put him on any of the following hands in order of possibility, the following hands: AQ, KQ, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, KJ, QJ, TJ, T9s, 89s, 67s and as you can see you don't beat many of these hands.

Thanks for the analysis Garth - much appreacited.

I thought that his bet looked kind of weak here and could mean one of two things:
a.) He is weak and is trying to take down the pot.
b.) He has me crushed and is inducing a reraise.

I thought for a bit and decided (I think incorectly now) to reraise to 500 and as you alluded to he pushed. I had 500 behind and I knew he had AQ but I couldn't be bothered grinding a short stack from the start so called and yep, as you predicted he had the AQ to have me crushed.

Yeah, your river raise effectively turns your hand into a bluff. Any call or shove and you know your beat (QJ might be the only hand that calls your river raise that you beat), so it has to be a call here i think.