AK and AJ hand analysis - Beluga Theorem

[trishan]

Hand 1

Player is fairly tight. Haven't been involved in a hand with him. 200 places before the money.

PokerStars Game #33968285047: Tournament #203041061, $2.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2009/10/13 14:20:46 AEST [2009/10/12 23:20:46 ET]
Table '203041061 236' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: andres1966 (9346 in chips)
Seat 2: pija5000 (9623 in chips)
Seat 3: trishan09 (20943 in chips)
Seat 4: araujo1941 (22458 in chips)
Seat 5: Joker363636 (4978 in chips)
Seat 6: PowellParty (6027 in chips)
andres1966: posts the ante 25
pija5000: posts the ante 25
trishan09: posts the ante 25
araujo1941: posts the ante 25
Joker363636: posts the ante 25
PowellParty: posts the ante 25
andres1966: posts small blind 150
pija5000: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to trishan09 [As Kc]
trishan09: raises 600 to 900
araujo1941: folds
Joker363636: folds
PowellParty: folds
andres1966: folds
pija5000: calls 600
*** FLOP *** [9d 2d Td]
pija5000: checks
trishan09: bets 1200
pija5000: calls 1200
*** TURN *** [9d 2d Td] [Ac]
pija5000: checks
trishan09: bets 3000
pija5000: raises 3000 to 6000

trishan09???

[trishan]

Hand 2

PokerStars Game #33968448269: Tournament #203041061, $2.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2009/10/13 14:26:58 AEST [2009/10/12 23:26:58 ET]
Table '203041061 236' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: andres1966 (9046 in chips)
Seat 2: pija5000 (38717 in chips)
Seat 3: trishan09 (12395 in chips)
Seat 4: araujo1941 (2312 in chips)
Seat 5: Joker363636 (5578 in chips)
Seat 6: PowellParty (5327 in chips)
andres1966: posts the ante 25
pija5000: posts the ante 25
trishan09: posts the ante 25
araujo1941: posts the ante 25
Joker363636: posts the ante 25
PowellParty: posts the ante 25
Joker363636: posts small blind 150
PowellParty: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to trishan09 [Jc Ad]
andres1966: calls 300
pija5000: folds
trishan09: raises 600 to 900
araujo1941: folds
Joker363636: folds
PowellParty: folds
andres1966: calls 600
*** FLOP *** [3d 9s Js]
andres1966: checks
trishan09: bets 2000
andres1966: calls 2000
*** TURN *** [3d 9s Js] [8d]
andres1966: bets 4500

trishan09???

[trishan]

I am so sick of AK/AQ/AJ type hands. I am gonna start folding these pre. Obivously benny the cunt has mentioned the Beluga Theorem before.

Beluga Theorem: A check raise on the turn means that a single overpair or top pair/top kicker is usually no good.

So if I understand it correct - both these hands would be a fold?

[Bacon]

I am so sick of AK/AQ/AJ type hands. I am gonna start folding these pre. Obivously benny the cunt has mentioned the Beluga Theorem before.

Beluga Theorem: A check raise on the turn means that a single overpair or top pair/top kicker is usually no good.

So if I understand it correct - both these hands would be a fold?

2nd one isn't a C/R. I thnk ya still good.

[trishan]

BelugaWhale Theorem - When you are the preflop raiser and your turn bet is raised or check/raised, it is time to re-evaluate one pair hands.

Reasoning: In raised pots, most players will just call down with one pair (be it pocket pair or top pair) type hands as well as draws. The turn is where most players who flopped a monster stop slowplaying and try to build pot. Or, they raise if they hit their draw.

Application: A raise on the turn is a signal to re-evaluate where you are at. It is not and automatic fold but you need to consider if villain has a monster or just hit his draw.

Reliability: Against fish and bad players in general, with the exception sometimes of LAGs and maniacs, this is a VERY reliably theorem. However, it is also an extremely popular and well known theorem, perhaps the best known. A lot of good players, particularly 2+2 players can try to exploit this theorem, especially by floating. So depending on the player (a decent player who is ALSO capable of making a play) you may need to discount this theorem considerably.)


For the record it turns out both hands were good examples of the application of the Beluga theorem. Had I folded both hands with have been left with 12k as opposed to 3k I ended up with and could have quite possibly made the money (was 25 places away from money in the end.

[AceLosesKing]

First of all, hand one is the easiest check back in the world. Hardly anything folds to your cbet, on possibly the worst board you could hope for. If you have the Ad/Kd this is a cbet (although nothing wrong with checking back too), but otherwise, let it go. Most diamonds will peel at least one card. Next time you have a situation like this, ask yourself if I bet and he calls what do I do on the turn? If you give up on most turn cards, c-betting flops like this is burning money. I also think overall you c-bet too often, start implementing checking/check raises into your game.

Hand 2, I shove turn depending on villian's style/reads.

[maccatak11]

I agree that Hand one is probably a poor c-bet.

I have implemented a rule into my game that i will NEVER c-bet A high on non-rainbow boards containing a combination of any two of 9, T, J. (except perhaps in blind on blind action, or if i have 3-bet or 4-bet pre) Pretty much ANY of villains hands have either hit the board, or have some kind of hand.

You can bet a blank turn if it is checked back to, and although it feels bad, its not the worst thing to check/fold AK on a board like that.


Hand two is a tough one. I too get stuck in these spots a fair bit. I would be inclined to shove here and hope he has JT ot TT, but its also possible his straight got there, but i think you gotta put your chips in to find out.

Would anyone else consider attempting to check/raise the flop? Or check/calling the turn?

Personally i think i would have bet the flop and shoved the turn, but its certainly an interesting hand.

[bennymacca]

on wet boards, stop cbetting.

delayed cbetting on the turn is better, because people are less likely to call down on the turn with just a naked draw.

hand 1, i definitely check back, hand 2 is kinda meh, could go either way