You're a Bunch of Factors

Here's my reads:

AJ - was loose on the opening tables, but since hitting FT as short stack, was pretty nitty
Julez - limped with AJ on the button early, I shoved in SB with K9s, she called with AJo. I flopped the 9. Seems to be overbetting pots when she missed.

We are FT in 6 handed, Top 3 paid... 3rd gets $21 ($4.40 BI)

***** Cassava Hand History for Game 227524560 *****
$500/$1000 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 18 10 2009 21:49:40
Tournament #24929638 $4 + $0.40 - Table #3 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: julez21 ( $24891 )
Seat 5: Bacon8100 ( $23524 )
Seat 6: harv1981 ( $23464 )
Seat 7: maccatak11 ( $11175 )
Seat 8: tnkkkbl1 ( $16324 )
Seat 9: ajalcba ( $8622 )
julez21 posts small blind [$500]
Bacon8100 posts big blind [$1000]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Bacon8100 [ Ts Th ]
harv1981 calls [$1000]
maccatak11 folds
tnkkkbl1 folds
ajalcba raises [$8622]
julez21 calls [$8122]



Break it down for me. Ta

meh, i shove there.

a flat could be anything from julez, the range is pretty wide.

nup, flat there screams something strong to me.

limp the from the BU with is standard, but she is EP now.

I think I could find a fold there (just) - you've got a limp, raise and call, you're facing lots of overs at ebst, and you've got squat fold equity.

i misread the hand history. an early position flat does change it a fair bit, because if i had TT or something, i would want to isolate to stop the first limper calling also.

so yeah, it probably does mean that julez is stronger.

its close between a fold and a shove here.

I pretty much always fold. With an all-in and a flat you are gonna be up against a better pocket pair or one or two overs.

The range of the 8k stack must be pretty wide - nearly all pocket pairs, two picture cards, any picture card with a suited second card. SB's range could be just as wide but UTG limped and if you fold will get 2.5-1 pot odds so he's probably got a tightish range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

190,299,036,312 games 361.078 secs 527,030,271 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.070% 38.49% 00.58% 73250366316 1098673244.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 34.685% 33.71% 00.98% 64149390132 1856066324.00 { 66+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 26.245% 25.43% 00.82% 48392556144 1551984152.00 { 55+, A6s+, K6s+, Q6s+, A7o+, KTo+, QTo+ }

lol 8bb open.

I fold, better spots and like Rcon said you have no FE. Both will call your shove, don't want that multiway. HU its easily going on.

If he call your shove, let's say you have 35% equity and if he folds you have 50% equity.

EV = Pr(Calls) * EV(Calls) + Pr(Folds) * EV(Folds)

EV(Calls) = .3 * 56670 - 23524
= - 3690

EV(Folds) = .5 * 26866 - 8622
= 4811

It's only ever a +EV play when Pr(Folds) > 43% He will be getting 2.8-1 pot odds - Does he fold more than 43% of the time, probably not.

Also, if you're considering folding this because you're trying to fold into the money, stop playing poker.

ok, firstly if you want a serious discussion on a hand; do not post the results in the OP. Too many player's opinions and thought processes can be swayed by results; results orientated players FTL.

Secondly; you don't ever flat in that situation. You have two options, all in or fold; there are many reasons why you don't call in this position and I'm not going to run through them now. But will be back later to elaborate.

The OS for 8BB all in from the DB is a wide range; any suited connectors, any pocket paint, any king, any ace and any pocket pair.

The flat from the SB is a concern but you have past history that dictates villain will call/limp with biggish Ace and slightly strong pre flop hands, villain is passive pre flop with at least the top 8% of hands (88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+).

If you stove this range against TT you will find you have a slight equity edge preflop. This edge is only slight and it does mean you are racing against villain's range.

Now it is entirely up to you as a player if you want race to here and gamble to give yourself the best possible chance to win this tournament. It's a hard call when you're two positions from the money and the average stack is around 14 BB deep.

In this tournament, against these players, at this stage of the tournament I do shove the BB and any equity edge I have.