You're a Bunch of Factors

I have been thinking about bad beats and suck outs, but has anybody given any thought to the fact that even though there is a minority that knows to fold when behind, the majority of 888PL players at least aren't good enough to fold when they are behind as even if you do everything but tell them they are behind they still call, it happened to me tonight at my local venue when I raised from 100 to 300 pre flop on the button with KK and got called by 2 players who were both holding AJ. The flop comes down J33, and I know I am in front. UTG bets 300, UTG+1 calls and I raise to 1000, both call me and hit the last A in the deck as someone folded one. I mean that is basically the birth of bad beats and suckouts, people who don't know when they are behing, but still get galactically lucky to take your chips. Does anyone else have examples of this?, or is it just me this happens to?

2 aces left in the deck. 2 jacks in the deck. 4 outs.

Big thing is not to look at the suckout, but look at who made the mistake in the hand.

Did you put your money in when you were 75% favourite?
Did they bet into you when they were less than 40% to win the hand?
Was there anyway you could have played it differently?
Did you get the call you wanted?

Obviously the big issue that everyone has usually starts with "i was 2 spots away from making the points."

Folding for points doesn't win you a poker game.

Pre flop raise was only 2x = too weak for my tastes, which means you were always going to get called

post flop you have a pot worth 1200 then you get 600 worth of action in front so you raise to 1000 into a pot worth about 1800

again = too weak for my tastes, should have been more like 1400 minimum as far as i am concerned.

i dont think this is quite as bad a suck out as you imagine, im sorry but you were inviting action with those bets, if you wish to shut down the action then you are going to have to bet much harder and if your intention was to get the call then you have to accept that the chasers will hit from time to time

*ahem*

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=4109

i am never ever ever folding AJ on a J33 board in a super turbo game for what its worth.

you just got unlucky eddy. happens to the best of us

I actually enjoy playing against opponents who don't know when to fold.

It's what makes me more money! If everyone knew to fold when they were behind it wouldn't be a very exciting game.

And benny the cunt, are you sure you're never folding there? I can certainly lay that down if my read says overpair to the board. Even if it is a turbo structured tournament.

Krunchie he raised 3x not 2x pre, so thats fine.

But really, don't you WANT people calling your strong hands when they are way behind? Of course you do. I think you played the hand fine, except you don't say what happened after the A fell? Did you then lose all of your chips? What were your reads on other players at this time?

Put yourself in their shoes. Somebody raised from the button and you look down at AJ and call. Flop J33, bingo, pretty good flop for me, so i bet but hmm he raised. But the only hands i am losing to are AA, KK, QQ and JJ. Are you really going to fold your AJ here? I don't think i would, and if you do then thats pretty damn nitty (i know that i straddle the TAG/nit borderline on occasions, but definately not this time).

Pretty standard i think.

Garth Kay wrote:I actually enjoy playing against opponents who don't know when to fold.

It's what makes me more money! If everyone knew to fold when they were behind it wouldn't be a very exciting game.

And benny the cunt, are you sure you're never folding there? I can certainly lay that down if my read says overpair to the board. Even if it is a turbo structured tournament.

it looks as though its before the first break, so i am guessing we still have our rebuy cards available. in this case i dont think i am folding.

yes, i might lay it down sometimes, but i would have to have a very specific read against the other player.

against an unknown, even if they look very strong, i am calling here more than i am folding though. (inexperienced players will bet any jack like its the nuts here i have found)

Brett,there was not 2 A left, there was one, as someone folded one pre flop, and there is only 1 J as they both had one and they flopped one, thats 3, so one left, so 2 outs two beat me and after the flop I am about an 80% favourite, and was not folding for points, I prefer to be the bubble or try and attack, not limp into the points and get blinded out, it is to boring. On the flop I bet 1000 into a 1600 pot, as I wanted the pot over then and there. Probably should have bet more but like a few of you have said they are never folding, so it wouldn't matter how much I bet. The bet on the turn was the the UTG all in for 150 and UTG+1 was all in on the flop, so I'm not folding for 150 into a 3000 pot on the off chance I can hit one of the kings. Anyway, I just needed to vent and I thought why not start a new topic while doing it, so does anyone else have examples of this happening to them.

eddy12325 wrote:Brett,there was not 2 A left, there was one, as someone folded one pre flop, and there is only 1 J as they both had one and they flopped one, thats 3, so one left, so 2 outs two beat me and after the flop I am about an 80% favourite, and was not folding for points, I prefer to be the bubble or try and attack, not limp into the points and get blinded out, it is to boring. On the flop I bet 1000 into a 1600 pot, as I wanted the pot over then and there. Probably should have bet more but like a few of you have said they are never folding, so it wouldn't matter how much I bet. The bet on the turn was the the UTG all in for 150 and UTG+1 was all in on the flop, so I'm not folding for 150 into a 3000 pot on the off chance I can hit one of the kings. Anyway, I just needed to vent and I thought why not start a new topic while doing it, so does anyone else have examples of this happening to them.

Examples?

I have plenty.

A case Jack on the flop cost me around 50K last year in the Vic Champs.

A case Jack on the river cost me my first ever 4 figure pot when I had flopped Aces full and had maniacs moving all in for 2K on the turn. That was an 9.5K pot.

I had 7 hands in a row in the Vic Champs ME this yeat on Day 1 where I got it in as a four to one fav post flop and was sucked out on each time.

A two outer Queen on the turn cost me over $460 on Saturday when I was four bet pre holding AK, hit the King on the flop and c/r villain and he decided to squeeze, I call and game over on the turn.

Three weeks in a row at Sky City I had built my stack to over 500 and somehow get some clown to stack off against me with QQ when I am holding KK or AA. Each time over those three weeks they hit their Queen on the river. Ask Butler about those ones.

It happens to all of us. I get the call and the play I want when I am a monster favourite, i shrug and move on. Unless it's online, then I break desks, or knuckles and swear so loudly the neighbours think I am being assaulted by a gang of ninjas!