You're a Bunch of Factors

Aiiight.

400/800. ~10k in my stack. UTG limps, UTG1 limps, sitting in UTG2 I limp [9h] [8h]. Folds to BTN, who limps, SB folds, BB checks. So a 5 way pot.

Flop: [9d] [9c] [4h]. Checked to me.

Should we be betting here?

I check, BTN checks.

Turn: [Qs]. Checked to UTG1, who bets 1300. Next to act, I raise to 3.5k. Folds to UTG, who shoves all in. He has us both covered (sitting on ~25k). UTG1 folds pretty quickly.

Hero ???

Notes: Folding will leave me with 8200.
Villian: Only played with him a few times, no notable read.

Results to come when I get some valid replies.

i think your action is on the right track.

this kind of spot gets me in trouble all the time, i always seem to overvalue the trips even though the kicker can be so easily beaten, happened to me several times in the last few weeks and its a hole i intend to plug before i sink.

board is dry as hell, what are the players like that are in the hand?

if they are your standard passive 888pl players, then i am prolly leading that flop anyway. if there are aggro players, then its a check/raise for sure.

but since its a limped pot, i am prolly leading flop.

now on the turn, u get action. this is pretty weird on that board really, but depending on the quality of your opponents, this could range from a better 9, 44, or any queen Q9+. i doubt there are worse nines in there at all.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

54,450 games 0.001 secs 54,450,000 games/sec

Board: 9d 9c 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.150% 63.51% 03.64% 34583 1980.00 { 9h8h }
Hand 1: 32.850% 29.21% 03.64% 15907 1980.00 { 44, A9s, KQs, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, T9s, A9o, KQo, K9o, QJo, Q9o, J9o, T9o }


unless you have some pretty specific reads, its a pretty clear call. my range there is relatively tight i think (i haven't included AQ because i think they would raise pre).

krunchie wrote:i think your action is on the right track.

this kind of spot gets me in trouble all the time, i always seem to overvalue the trips even though the kicker can be so easily beaten, happened to me several times in the last few weeks and its a hole i intend to plug before i sink.

while this is true krunchie, it is very hard to be outkicked when u have trips, there just isn't that many hand combos. nearly as likely to have 44 here, which i am guessing is the hand that beat aaron

Tough one AK, but i think i bet the flop, maybe 2.5k. With the limpers we have no real idea how strong our opponents hands are so we have no real information. If you get rr on that board then it becomes scary as your only really beating pocket pairs (sept 44 o'course), but as played i think its a real tough spot on the turn too.

Readless i prob have to call the turn. that action could come from PP and Qx hands, but it could just as easily be someone slow playing A9 or K9 or 44. So i dunno. Sigh call though.

maccatak11 wrote:Readless i prob have to call the turn. that action could come from PP and Qx hands, but it could just as easily be someone slow playing A9 or K9 or 44. So i dunno. Sigh call though.

his range is pretty much entirely what you have mentioned here. but there are way more Qx combos than there are better trips or full house combos.

Yes but there are fewer Qx hands that are actually going to reshove AK's turn raise here. Q<T is probably flatting here, so its only really KQ, AQ (seen many people limp this in 888pl) and maybe QJ or QT that we are beating.

you will notice i didn't include QT in my range above. even if i put AQ in there and take out QJ, then we are still in front here

I am with benny the cunt on this one.

I definitely lead the flop for half pot, but it does depend on your opponents, I don't think you are extracting maximum value from that flop by checking it. All the limpers into this pot are very likely to check that flop with really only overpairs looking to lead. You will get more callers and build the pot by leading at the flop with a weak bet.

I have to say that I can't find a fold without any clear reads. Get the chips in and pray it's someone overplaying KQ or QJ.

I agree with my learned brothers.

You must lead the flop for about 3/5ths pot.

On the turn, I really like your reraise size. I almost always call given you are left with 10BB if you fold.

Range
44 - Depending on player's skill. If he is above average you definitely expet him to check the flop otherwise with pocket fours he would definitely bet.

Another 9 - as above, if he has A9/K9s/9 10s any decent player is probably looking to c/r the flop as well.

I think he probably has QJ/QK/Q 10 type hands.

Would be funny if he had Q9...