10NL Thin Value Bet on the River?

[bennymacca]

Dont have the hand history here, but i can recount from PTR

Effective Stacks are 14.51@10NL i am on the button, vilain is in the sb

Folded to me, i raise 0.35. with [jd] [jc]
SB 3bets me to 1.15
I call

flop is [3d] [qh] [8h]

SB bets 1.6 into 2.4, i call

Turn [qs]

SB bets 2.4 into 5.6, i call


River is [4c]

SB Checks, pot is 10.4 and he has 9.41 left


My Reads:

villain basically never has a Q or a house here, why would he stop firing now after 2 barrelling, and all the draws missing. this leaves him pretty much all pocket pair type hands, and hands that he might have fired a couple of times like AK or AhXh

Firstly, what do you think of my line? If i call the flop here, i pretty much have to call the turn, because the Q on the turn changes nothing. i.e i was in front already, or i am still behind. so calling flop then folding turn makes no sense at all.

As played, What is the best play on the river?

1. Shove, make it look like a missed draw and hope to get looked up by 99-TT
2. Put in a small value bet, something like $5, to get value from lower PP
3. Check back in case he has AA/KK and gets worried you have the Q now

[Papa Bear]

Shove absolutely !!

Option 2 is scary in case he does have AA or KK. He will call. Not knowing villain or his history its hard to say, don't know if he would lay down AA or KK with trip Q risk out there, but a small raise will have him calling

Option 3 check option, don't like it..Your read has told you he doesn't like the board. Represent the Q !!, he hasn't tripped one of the other cards for a boat, he hasn't hit 2 rubbish pair early, he raised pre flop.... Gotta put him on AK or something...

Of course the answer is going to be he was holding pocket Queens though right ?

[bennymacca]

let me be clear here, if i am shoving or betting, i am expecting a call. i dont think its worth trying to push him of AA/KK here, because i dont think he folds these hands.

repping a Q here is not great, because its such a narrow range. and check-calling twice is not something i would do with AQ or KQ here - i would have raised flop and got it in on the turn.


so really the question is, does he have 99-TT more often than he has AA-KK? i dont think he is folding any of that range on this board.

and if he has TT for example, which will he most likely call, a shove or a half pot value bet

[Papa Bear]

let me be clear here, if i am shoving or betting, i am expecting a call.

OK, so in your mind you think you're probably good here, but there is obvious danger
What are you dodging? AA KK QQ AQ or KQ maybe. Could be trapping with the Q.

Maybe the small bet then. You would quickly find out where you are. If he flat calls, he would probably roll over the TT or 99 like you thought, the pot is yours and you haven't risked much (extra) to find out. If he re raises over the top, it hasn't cost you a lot (extra) to fold and run away.

[Swanky]

I'm thinking safety and just checking here.

[bennymacca]

let me be clear here, if i am shoving or betting, i am expecting a call.

OK, so in your mind you think you're probably good here, but there is obvious danger
What are you dodging? AA KK QQ AQ or KQ maybe. Could be trapping with the Q.

Maybe the small bet then. You would quickly find out where you are. If he flat calls, he would probably roll over the TT or 99 like you thought, the pot is yours and you haven't risked much (extra) to find out. If he re raises over the top, it hasn't cost you a lot (extra) to fold and run away.

if we bet $5 and he shoves, then we have 5 more to call and the pot is worth 20 odd. in this case, i am probably sigh-calling anyway (rightly or wrongly) as we are getting huge odds.


for a moment, lets assume we are the villain and we have TT. if someone bets half their stack on this river, does it look stronger than a shove, when all the draws missed?

in either case, do we call? which one are we more likely to call?

im not going to tell people what i did just yet, but i am thinking that a shove actually looks weaker than a half pot bet in this case

[Papa Bear]

It was this line here that threw me

3. Check back in case he has AA/KK and gets worried you have the Q now

Thought you were implying he might have put you on the Q and you could push him out of it

Nice discussion point benny the cunt, love your work

[bennymacca]

Thought you were implying he might have put you on the Q and you could push him out of it

with KK/AA, i think he check-calls, trying to pot control, or at least get us to try and spazz with missed draws. triple barrelling is very strong, and i dont think i call here with JJ if he fires for a third time.


what i should have mentioned above, is that villain is assumed to be tight aggressive, that would be aware of the fact that i would open the button lightly, and so therefore he would have a fairly wide sb 3betting range

[Origami]

I'd Small Bet..

it gives you some Pot Control as Garth calls it

also gives more info to work with ..

you aint got the Nuts so why "benny the cunt jam".

where in the Tourny /game / your plan for the night/table is this hand played...???
a Sacraficial Bet/Hand depending on your Mood on the Night...

ps Beware the Two Pair

[maccatak11]

I think i check back here. TT/99 has given up i think and won't call a river bet. AA/KK i think will call in which case you are beaten.