Should I be leading this river?

[rcon]

No stats, no reads - hand 8 of tourney

Plan was to check/raise/fold to shove on the turn, but he checked behind. I obviously didn't give him an ace, but I also didn't want to have to call a shove over my lead on the river for so many chips early on - pot control'n'all that.

Thoughts?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t1305)
CO (t1170)
Button (t2220)
Hero (SB) (t1470)
BB (t1545)
UTG (t2595)
UTG+1 (t1800)
MP1 (t1395)
MP2 (t1500)

Hero's M: 32.67

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t60, 5 folds, Hero calls t45, 1 fold

Flop: (t150) A, 6, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t100, UTG+1 calls t100

Turn: (t350) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: (t350) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t150,

[maccatak11]

I think you played it fine. I would be check/calling this river. As you said it is a tough spot if he raises/shoves your river lead. Because you checked turn i would also check river to try and induce a bluff, or get him to bet a 7.

[gmatical]

Lead river (100-200ish value sized) , fold to re-raise (not sure he would be shoving here).

I would expect you would have called his 150 anyway so there is not a great difference to your stack, just the aggression gives him a chance to (maybe) sigh fold hands like 99, 10 10 etc.

Can't see much else you could do tho, his hand could be a lot of hands - make a note on him/her after showdown. Ie. Betsv pre with Ax then plays tricky with big hand or bluffed AAxxx board with JJ etc..

If you were prepared to check raise the turn, why did you check river? Just second guessed yourself?

[maccatak11]

I guess it depends on if you think villain is calling with a 6 or a 7. If they are, then a value bet could be in order, but check/calling is soooooo much better than betting this river i think.

If we bet 100 on this river (into a 320 pot) we are just asking for a tough spot. Our bet looks like we have a weak hand, and if we are reraised we are playing a bigger pot than we need to with a marginal hand.

just the aggression gives him a chance to (maybe) sigh fold hands like 99, 10 10 etc.

I guess its read specific, but as played i dont think many villains would fold these hands. Its a pretty safe board for a hand like TT.

If we bet this river we are basically bluffing. By checking we give them a chance to bluff, and use the showdown value of out hand more effectively.

[AJG]

I think if he had a strong Ace there flat calling your flop bet is extremely dangerous, with both straight and flush draws out, so you are probably correct that they dont have an Ace. And your calling range to a minraise quite likely includes 98(dd?) or JTs/J9s or 2 high diamonds. Its pretty darn hard to tell what his EP minraise means, esp followed by the flop call. Flush draw for villain is quite likely to.

Pretty thin bet by villain on the river so an easy call for you...

I think as maccatak said, as played, chk/call the river is probably best. Reminds me of a hand last night (live) where a big bluff was picked off, and the bluffer said they were trying to represent trip 4s, as the board paired 4s on the turn, but as they had limped from UTG and raised the flop, a 4 just didnt fit the 'story' they were telling with their play, and consequently didnt work, called by a hand that was only a (semi)bluff catcher. So yeah leading the river there really is a semi-bluff, doubtful you will get any better hands to fold. I would have a tough time beleiving you held an Ace here...
And as you said rcon, pot control is a good thing here.
All tends to a chk-call...
Would you have 3bet with AK/AQ there from the SB?

[rcon]

Would you have 3bet with AK/AQ there from the SB?

likely, but not certainly. Certainly makes it hard to sell the idea I've got an A there.

If you were prepared to check raise the turn, why did you check river? Just second guessed yourself?

mostly to define the hand without it costing me too much of my stack which is easier when the pot is still small - I'm not C/R that turn because I've got a big hand, but rather because I think he has top at best

[trishan]

UTG+1 min raise usually means strength with a big pocket pair. They want someone else to reraise them. If this is micro/small stakes it could just as likely be something silly like QJ/QK/KJ. Flop bet is standard, not sure what he calls with on the flop then checks back the turn. If he has anything he should be betting the turn.

I think he could have a suited connector 78s, 56s and think his pair is good. Otherwise a smaller pocket pair might also play like this 22-99. 10s or Js possibly, but pretty unlikely. Def not QQ/KK. I think the bet on the river means his hand has some showdown value so I rule out flush draws.

I think check-calling the river is the best play here. You gain no additional value by check-raising his bet or leading the river.

[Garth Kay]

Checking the river is fine', think check calling is the best play here; if you bet the river you will get called by a better hand around 80% of the time, I don't think villain calls down with worse hands too many times in this spot. If you bet the river and you get raised, what do you do then, I don't think you can call off to a re raise on the river, IRRESPECTIVE of raise sizing. Not many villains will raise that river with air or worse holdings than yours.

Pot control here and check call!

[rcon]

thanks all - fwiw, I called and he rolled 87s

Was pretty sure I had the line right, but was interested in other opinions.

Any problem with the c/r/fold line for the turn?

[David]

Like the line.
Agree with Matt/Garth etc - bet and face a possible raise.

Sometimes you see TT/JJ there, but I would think 9T, TJs or even 78.

EDIT
SCREW YOU MAT!
I was just replying and then it said a new post was added.