You're a Bunch of Factors

I have seen some pretty darn funky play at SnG's, especially given the amount of reference material out there on playing them, but this one I just cant wrap my head around... And its not a $1 micro either!

Was a turbo (3min levels) as I like getting to the bubble quicker and the shorter stack average....

I had stats around 18/12, and had only pushed good hands so far this bubble and none for a few orbits as you can see from my stack.
Villain had been playing TIGHT, like <10% and had only just doubled off the SB the previous hand, when this :

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t2805)
BB (t2060)
UTG (t7788)
Hero (Button) (t847)

Hero's M: 1.88

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
1 fold, Hero bets t847 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls t547

Flop: (t1844) 3, 9, 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1844) K (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1844) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t1844

Results:
Hero had K, A (two pair, Kings and nines).


Yep, ok, he's the BB and it's less for him to call, but it is still 25% of his stack!
And on the bubble???
ICM says he needs over 52% hand equity to make this call, even if he thinks I am pushing atc, which I clearly wasn't. (even UTG would need >50 with their stack)
Ironically, I was actually thinking he understood bubble play quite well before this!

Yes I keep reminding myself I should be happy to get calls like this, but jeez do they sting when you take a beat from them...



x

Assigned you top 20% of hands.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.811% 30.33% 00.48% 134520532 2123185.50 { 9d6c }
Hand 1: 69.189% 68.71% 00.48% 304719833 2123185.50 { 66+, A4s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

As played i dont think its as bad as you say it is. If it was for a greater % of his stack, then it becomes worse, but it wasn't terrible mathematically, considering his pot odds.

Take it to the vent thread sir!!

I am pretty sure this is fairly standard hand. You got the call you wanted. I have seen worse calls than this.

and most of the time you would win the hand, call the guy a douche for calling, laugh a bit and take the chips... its part of poker and get over it!! just shows again that maths cant win every hand.

sahara1 wrote: just shows again that maths cant win every hand.

LOL It just shows that when you are an 80% favourite, you still have to lose 20% of the time.

maccatak and trishan, perhaps you forget, this was the bubble of a SnG???
If you think that call is ok, think again. This isnt a cash game or MTT.... Pot odds alone are almost meaningless in these situations...
I can assure you trishan, after 100s of SnGs as a profitable player (and many before I was profitable), this is far from a standard call on the bubble...

And with that stack, put me on closer to top 40% I push with there... Still doesnt change a whole lot (3%). I need to be pushing closer to 60% to make his call a break even play...

Your last comment trishan, is closer to what I was thinking, aside from "was that a misclick?"

I cant put it in the beat/vent thread, because really I am not trying to vent....
I actually pulled a nice profit leading up to this particular game (which I had decided was my last before the 1st hand was dealt), and just thought this call was one of the most stoopid things I have seen at a SnG bubble....

Get over it, Sahara? What gave you the idea I was upset to begin with?
I posted it because I thought it amusing mostly...
Even though he won I still called him a douche

See all those yellow laughing faces at the bottom of OP??

If math could win every hand, bots would rule the poker world

Was also quite a funny hand to be involved in....

FLOP: OOOHH BOO!

TURN: YAY! WHOOP!

RIVER: YOUR F'N KIDDING ME!!!

Hey Aaron,

I can't really comment on the general play in SnGs but I can say your shoving range on the button and 4 handed is huge. Also couple that with the fact that it is on the bubble and you expect moves, you have an even wider range.

I think it is +EV from your POV to shove any two cards and the villain would know that. Not defending his play but given your huge range he has on average 30% equity and he is in the BB so he is also getting a discount. Unfortunately for him he walked into the top part of your range and got lucky.

Edit: Villain also probably knows his VPIP which makes it more likely that someone is making a move in that spot.

meh you got the call you wanted.

sh*t happens

You are quite right that often it is +EV to push any two, however on the bubble the edge required to call is greater than it normally would be. Even if you think opponent is pushing atc.

To contrive an example, if i had a similar stack to him, even with him in the BB, it is only profitable for him to call with top 15% hands, even knowing for a fact I am pushing any two...
And given how tight this opponent was, if he shoved ahead of me I would muck 9s (Ts would be marginal)... even from the BB, unless the blinds were HUGE - effective stacks <= 5BB

That said, in the game, I clearly wasn't pushing anywhere near that wide (folded last 4 or so orbits). And 96o if a funky hand, few str8s, few flushes, so you are reliant upon catching a 9 or 6.... You don't really have much showdown value...

This is what makes it profitable just to get to the bubble of a SnG: how tight a calling range should be, and that many many players dont know this (or anythign close to it)... They call too light, hence over time you profit (if you know the right calling range v tighter or looser opponents). Sometimes you give up slightly +EV hands early just to make it to the bubble, where opponent mistakes have a higher profit for you...

Edit: Hmmm, point still seems to be being missed....
Yes I was extatic when the cards were flipped...
His call is a big mistake...
Its intersting that such mistakes will still happen outside the micros *****
As this was a very light call indeed, hence bad mistake...
Busting didnt bother me...