Ace rag BB facing shove preflop

[Conspiracy Theorist]

PokerStars Game #48501173941: Tournament #303629467, $6+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2010/08/22 20:48:06 AEST [2010/08/22 6:48:06 ET]
Table '303629467 2' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: Natter1000 (460 in chips)
Seat 3: PinkFlooyd (2140 in chips)
Seat 4: ZuLPItcher (785 in chips)
Seat 5: MarcRx4 (1930 in chips)
Seat 6: joszunabot18 (2581 in chips)
Seat 7: luiscelica (2199 in chips)
Seat 8: K3_Randall (1445 in chips)
Seat 9: OveAS (1960 in chips)
ZuLPItcher: posts small blind 50
MarcRx4: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MarcRx4 [Ah 4s]
joszunabot18: folds
luiscelica: folds
K3_Randall: folds
OveAS: folds
Natter1000: raises 360 to 460 and is all-in
PinkFlooyd: folds
ZuLPItcher: calls 410
MarcRx4: ???

What to do here.

CT

Spoiler:

MarcRx4: folds
*** FLOP *** [3s 2h Ks]
*** TURN *** [3s 2h Ks] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [3s 2h Ks 3d] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ZuLPItcher: shows [5d 4d] (two pair, Fives and Threes)
Natter1000: shows [8s Qc] (a pair of Threes)
ZuLPItcher collected 1020 from pot
Natter1000 finished the tournament in 16th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1020 | Rake 0
Board [3s 2h Ks 3d 5c]
Seat 2: Natter1000 showed [8s Qc] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 3: PinkFlooyd (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: ZuLPItcher (small blind) showed [5d 4d] and won (1020) with two pair, Fives and Threes
Seat 5: MarcRx4 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: joszunabot18 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: luiscelica folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: K3_Randall folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: OveAS folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[Garth Kay]

Without opening the spoiler and with no other information (reads, history or stats on villain) I highly recommend that you fold.

[gmatical]

Fold faster than this does a quarter mile

[rcon]

We've got 20BB and we're folding to a LP shove of <5BB

whoops. just realised we'd be going 3 way.

Fold IMO

[maccatak11]

Read the spoiler. Results orientated much? Fold pre easily.

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Result not the point of the post. I thought the preflop decision was interesting given the stack size of the flat caller.

If he was all in also, do we still fold?

If he had a lot more chips, do we still fold?

How strong of a hand do we need to call?

CT

[rcon]

Result not the point of the post. I thought the preflop decision was interesting given the stack size of the flat caller.

If he was all in also, do we still fold?

If he had a lot more chips, do we still fold?

How strong of a hand do we need to call?

CT

Propose some ranges and stove 'em - then we can pick your logic apart

[maccatak11]

you probably shouldn't post results then, even in a spoiler.

you need a big ace or a medium/big pair to call here.

[trishan]

If he was all in also, do we still fold?

If he had a lot more chips, do we still fold?

How strong of a hand do we need to call?

CT

Pot 1 = 460*3 = 1380
Pot 2 = 325*2 = 650

EV = Equity([ah 4s] v Range 1 & Range 2)*1380 + Equity([ah 4s] v Range 2)*650 - 685

So let's discuss ranges here. What is the first all-in's range (Range 1)? I would say fairly wide:
22+,A2s+,K5s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,A2o+,K8o+,QTo+,JTo (32.4% of hands)

If the second guy jammed, his range is tighter but still not super tight, may be something like:
TT+,A5s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo (18.4%)

For Pot 1
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.354% 22.46% 02.89% 20203080123 2601793921.83 { Ah4s }
Hand 1: 34.161% 31.57% 02.59% 28399774169 2327359834.83 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K8o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 40.485% 38.64% 01.85% 34755684449 1659814228.33 { TT+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

For Pot 2
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.040% 39.21% 02.83% 136953875 9895084.00 { Ah4s }
Hand 1: 57.960% 55.13% 02.83% 192565973 9895084.00 { TT+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
In that case:

EV Calc

EV = .2535*1380 + .4204*650 - 685
= 349.83 + 273 - 685
= 622.83 - 685
= -62.17

So negative EV against these fairly generous ranges. Don't think it is ever +EV.

[AceLosesKing]

lol @ Zul's call.