One for the PLO fans

[Brett Kay]

Table 'Hermippe X' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: niko973 ($34.95 in chips)
Seat 3: WjWeng ($17.80 in chips)
Seat 5: Kodakai ($48.95 in chips)
niko973: posts small blind $0.25
WjWeng: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Kodakai [Ad Qd Tc 3d]
Kodakai: calls $0.50
niko973: calls $0.25
WjWeng: checks
*** FLOP *** [5d 9d Js]
niko973: bets $1
WjWeng: folds
Kodakai: calls $1
*** TURN *** [5d 9d Js] [4h]
niko973: bets $3.35

Only info on Villain is 36/0 over 14 hands, so semi passive from an Omaha player.

Me, i have shown down a lot of substandard hands and have sucked out. So very loose image to go with my 60/15 stats.

[Caleb]

From my count you have 17 outs to improve your hand sufficently, of which only one of those [4d] would put you in any danger.

You have to build a pot here. I assume he's betting the pot here ($3.50 - rake) so I would place his range around TPTK/2 pair. Maybe an outside chance at bottom set.

Raise, but don't smash the pot button. 2/3s should be good. He shouldn't raise, but I would happily get it in here regardless.

Also, I'm raising the flop here. I hope you were just trapping with your flat.

[gmatical]

You are calling here to match your pot control mantra

As I would.

Let him bet the river and fold of you don't get there and bomb it if you do!

[Brett Kay]

You are calling here to match your pot control mantra

As I would.

Let him bet the river and fold of you don't get there and bomb it if you do!

Still trying to extract the most amount of money out of him, if we call, we have a pot worth approx $10-11. If we raise, and get called our pot doubles, but still gives us a fair amount of opportunity to get away from the hand before it gets too far away from us.

If we raise, and get reraised, it puts us in a position for all our chips. Hence the dilemma of the action that we are facing.
Just getting peoples opinions.

[gmatical]

I would think that he/she has a made hand to be pot-betting into a loose player, the hand could vary from any set or 2 pair combos, but could even be as low as TPTK or an overpair - I spose it can really be only judged from past showdowns seen - or if none seen - assume the worst (eg that he has the best).

If we re-pot on 4th street, are we happy to get it in here and now (if he repots)?

I would not be personally, I think better spots exist. I am not sure what is the correct play (maths wise) but your 17 outs (of which 3 of the 2's may not help & 2 d's may fill him up) are fair call to take your chances - but!.

But.......right now we have zippo.

So your options appear to be

1, Call the $3.35 & lose the $4.85 invested if the river misses
2, Call the $3.35 & win his pot (or there abouts ) bet which he folds to your repot ($11)
3, Call the $3.35 & win his pot bet & the money he gives you by calling your repot ($30+)
4, Call the $3.35 & his pot, your repot, his remaining chips to take the lot
5, Raise the turn & swell the pot with a hand that has the potential to win similar amounts, but cost you more if you lose

I really like taking the safer line here because if he has a hand of decent strength, it is more likely than not he will at least call your repot on river & could even fall in love with his set or whatever against a loose goose like you seem to have been & get his whole stack in bad.

My opinion FWIW

[bennymacca]

Gmatical, 17 outs is a significant favorite over even a set

[gmatical]

Gmatical, 17 outs is a significant favorite over even a set

Comes up as a dog in my odds calculator (vs top set with straightening cards)

Game Holdem Holdem Hi/Lo 8 or better Omaha Omaha Hi/Lo 8 or better 7 Card Stud 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo 8 or better 7 Card Stud Hi/Lo no qualifier Razz Deuce to Seven Lowball

Board
5d 9d js 4h
Dead Cards

Hands
ad qd tc 3d
jc jd 10s 9h


Your Odds
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Ad Qd 3d 15 37.50 25 62.50 0 0.00 0.375
Ts Jc Jd 9h 25 62.50 15 37.50 0 0.00 0.625

I really don't think either option is right or wrong, one is just safer & I really think the safe option will pay off the same if it hits - but save more $ when it doesn't.

It is hard to judge a players likely play without knowing their holdings (or at least previous similar play) but I sense he has a hand and is looking to get as much $ as he can - let's let him wait until we have something and then accomodate his wishes

[Caleb]

His range is not just the worst possible scenario.

What makes you sense he has a hand?

The line he has taken can mean anything. We have not extracted any extra info from him at any stage so he's just doing his own thing.

I actually think the pot on the turn is weak.

[gmatical]

His range is not just the worst possible scenario.

umm..... we are a dog to bottom pair no kicker at the moment so unless we KNOW he is on a bluff - his range could be any 4 cards and we are still likely behind

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Ad Qd 3d 14 35.00 20 50.00 6 15.00 0.425
Ts 7c 4c Qh 20 50.00 14 35.00 6 15.00 0.575

What makes you sense he has a hand? I actually think the pot on the turn is weak.

A passive player leading both the flop & the turn suggests strength to me.

The line he has taken can mean anything. We have not extracted any extra info from him at any stage so he's just doing his own thing.

So, in your earlier post, you advocate raising 2/3 of the pot, then getting it in if re-raised.
Is this not disregarding the extra information you desire (eg, his re-pot of our 2/3 pot bet is further suggestion of strength)?

Your ‘get it in and gambooool’ approach is fine, but it does not really address the ‘how to get max value’ aspect of this thread.

[Brett Kay]

OK Strength of my hand.

Vs a set.
35-65

Vs a weaker flush straight draw wrap combo
65-35

Vs a pair no flush draw or straight draw
43-57

Over pair
43-57

Following action that took place to get some more info.
*** TURN *** [5d 9d Js] [4h]
niko973: bets $3.35
Kodakai: raises $8.15 to $11.50
niko973: raises $21.95 to $33.45 and is all-in