You're a Bunch of Factors

Ok early in the game so dont have any reads on any of the players.


Full Tilt Poker Game #26925484867: Daily Double - A (207551383), Table 77 - 10/20 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:10:14 ET - 2011/01/02
Seat 1: MustangRose (2,800)
Seat 2: BeNzitO85 (2,970)
Seat 3: spiktassa (3,020)
Seat 4: reraise12 (3,760)
Seat 5: boygenius82 (2,970)
Seat 6: scalloperik (2,280)
Seat 7: girlz_got_nutz (2,980)
Seat 8: JFossum (2,950)
Seat 9: PocketValue (3,270)
girlz_got_nutz posts the small blind of 10
JFossum posts the big blind of 20
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to girlz_got_nutz [8s 8c]
PocketValue has 15 seconds left to act
PocketValue has requested TIME
PocketValue folds
MustangRose calls 20
BeNzitO85 folds
spiktassa folds
reraise12 folds
boygenius82 has 15 seconds left to act
boygenius82 has timed out
boygenius82 folds
boygenius82 is sitting out
scalloperik folds
girlz_got_nutz calls 10
JFossum checks
*** FLOP *** [Kh 8d Qc]
girlz_got_nutz bets 60
JFossum calls 60
MustangRose calls 60
*** TURN *** [Kh 8d Qc] [Js]
girlz_got_nutz has 15 seconds left to act
girlz_got_nutz bets 160
JFossum folds
MustangRose raises to 720
girlz_got_nutz has 15 seconds left to act

I'll proberly get kicked in the nutz over this reply but so be it.

I dont use the traditional method of calculating my odds because I take into consideration the amount of cards left in play, in your case approx 50% of the deck is in play, therefore the odds that all your outs are still live is reduced by 50% in my opinion.

Whilst you only need 1 card from 10 to improve you hand, you were thinking a straight or was it a massive overbet to push you off, I think the fold was the right play so early in the game.

Id try my luck n call

gun dog, kick yourself in the nuts

For any ABC player, and assuming standard lines for an unknown player - This range would reraise you on the turn most likely:

TT,
ATs ATo
QJs, QJo
JTs, JTo
J8s, J8o
T9s, T9o

In simple terms and not boring you with the mathematical jargon......Your equity on the turn is calculated against your opponents most likely range between limping preflop to 3 betting hard on the turn.

Pot odds: 720 into 1020 is 70% (1.5/1)

Against the likely opponent range, your set of eights holds 52% equity here, so it's a coin flip for your tournament life very early on. It's for your tournament life because lets face it, by the time this hand is over, your both all in or close to it come the river, so if you lose, your stack is completely crippled to nothing more than a chip and a chair.

Calling / Shoving is high risk but marginally profitable. I'd fold and wait for a better opportunity.

Kind regards
rR

Thanks everyone. Was really easy to fold and I thought to myself later am I just being a nit. Roadrunner you are a marvel that is such a good explanation.

That range is incomplete.

KQ, KJ, K8 all raise here too.

The player limped from early position. Therefore KK, QQ, JJ are all unlikely. So the only hands you are behind to are A10 & 10 9.

That raise is just someone smashing the pot button for whatever reason. It most cases I find (with reads) that is trying in their own way to get value for a hand they think is ahead. Usually not the nuts though. You really are crushing the range here.

I just wouldn't ever fold the turn here.

I'm check calling river if board bricks, re-evaluating if the texture changes.

Playing mathematically sound is fine, but then you are at someones mercy if they keep smashing the pot button.

Caleb Rybalka wrote:That range is incomplete.

KQ, KJ, K8 all raise here too.

The player limped from early position. Therefore KK, QQ, JJ are all unlikely. So the only hands you are behind to are A10 & 10 9.

That raise is just someone smashing the pot button for whatever reason. It most cases I find (with reads) that is trying in their own way to get value for a hand they think is ahead. Usually not the nuts though. You really are crushing the range here.

I just wouldn't ever fold the turn here.

I'm check calling river if board bricks, re-evaluating if the texture changes.

Playing mathematically sound is fine, but then you are at someones mercy if they keep smashing the pot button.

Guy went on to bet like this throughout the tournament. He usually had massive hands ( the nuts or close to it) when he did it though so I am glad I folded. My biggest concern here was I had very little invested and could get away cheaply probably being in front or push all in and risk my tournament life when I could be behind . I would never flat call here to me I was either shoving or folding. I really think now that 10,9 is a definite possibility and he wanted just to take it down there. I will never know but am still happy with the fold.

madali wrote:

Caleb Rybalka wrote:That range is incomplete.

KQ, KJ, K8 all raise here too.

The player limped from early position. Therefore KK, QQ, JJ are all unlikely. So the only hands you are behind to are A10 & 10 9.

That raise is just someone smashing the pot button for whatever reason. It most cases I find (with reads) that is trying in their own way to get value for a hand they think is ahead. Usually not the nuts though. You really are crushing the range here.

I just wouldn't ever fold the turn here.

I'm check calling river if board bricks, re-evaluating if the texture changes.

Playing mathematically sound is fine, but then you are at someones mercy if they keep smashing the pot button.

Guy went on to bet like this throughout the tournament. He usually had massive hands ( the nuts or close to it) when he did it though so I am glad I folded. My biggest concern here was I had very little invested and could get away cheaply probably being in front or push all in and risk my tournament life when I could be behind . I would never flat call here to me I was either shoving or folding. I really think now that 10,9 is a definite possibility and he wanted just to take it down there. I will never know but am still happy with the fold.

Your more than welcome Madali, you made the right decision. As you've highlighted - the pertinent point here is that you had very little invested. You can fold and still have a commanding chip position with better opportunities to follow so early on.

Just forget all this next time you and I are tangling on the turn in a 888PL fixture online

Caleb Rybalka wrote:That range is incomplete.

KQ, KJ, K8 all raise here too.

The player limped from early position. Therefore KK, QQ, JJ are all unlikely. So the only hands you are behind to are A10 & 10 9.

That raise is just someone smashing the pot button for whatever reason. It most cases I find (with reads) that is trying in their own way to get value for a hand they think is ahead. Usually not the nuts though. You really are crushing the range here.

I just wouldn't ever fold the turn here.

I'm check calling river if board bricks, re-evaluating if the texture changes.

Playing mathematically sound is fine, but then you are at someones mercy if they keep smashing the pot button.

Hi Caleb, the range is not incomplete.

I've deliberately excluded KQ / KJ from the range for the same reasons i excluded AA KK QQ JJ - because those hands are being opened for a raise pre flop most of the time, especially when first to act.

K8 I also excluded deliberately because there's no way ABC opponents are limping K8 from UTG+1 in a nine or ten handed tournament as a common occurrence. Remember - when assigning a range we are considering the most likely action of our opponents PF - and K8 is a standard fold to an every day opponent call Mr Joe Regular from EP.

Even J8 suited would be more regularly limped because it's being played for it's connectedness - straights and flushes, not just the K high flush value. But whatever, include the K8 if you must, the equation doesn't change anyway.

Your still a 52% favourite and gambling your whole tournament life when there's really no need. You'll have better opportunities to get it in when it's still so early and your deep stacked.

Folding is fine.

Calling totally sucks. Why on earth would you call when you have two straights on the board already beating you? (AT / T9). Calling also gives your opponent a further chance to suck out on you if he's on two pair or a funky straight draw.

Shoving is marginally ok based on likely ranges. Your range is not crushing your opponents most likely raising range, it's a coin flip. Remember - this is a limped pot & your suddenly facing a very large 3 bet on the turn - so the assigned hand ranges against board texture are accurately assessed as follows:-

Range equation:-

K8QJ board:
888 vs TT,ATs,QJs,JTs,J8s,T9s,ATo,QJo,JTo,T9o

888 = 52% equity
TT,ATs,QJs,JTs,J8s,T9s,ATo,QJo,JTo,T9o = 48% equity
with K8s and K8o included - 53% equity.

These ranges are all player dependant and can be edited based on history, but we're assuming no history here so you apply the most likely balanced range and act accordingly.

I could elaborate further to hammer this point to accurate death, but I have to play you people from time to time so I'll leave everything else in the bag.

If anyone wants further discussion just pm me.

Kind regards
rR


ps.......

Caleb Rybalka wrote:Playing mathematically sound is fine, but then you are at someones mercy if they keep smashing the pot button.

Incorrect. I am never at the mercy of a "smashing pot button" opponent. I just selectively choose when to pull the trigger.

Conversely, you are most definitely at the mercy of the bet pot button opponent by just calling in these spots. fold or shove.

i agree with caleb here roadrunner, your range is pretty horrible imo.

if someone limps UTG this early in the tournament then its a sure indication that they are a horrible player, so there are all kinds of broadway card type hands that will limp here.

.roadRuNNer. wrote:I've deliberately excluded KQ / KJ from the range for the same reasons i excluded AA KK QQ JJ - because those hands are being opened for a raise pre flop most of the time, especially when first to act.

not sure you can draw this conclusion because a decent player will never ever limp from utg at this level of the tournament.

.roadRuNNer. wrote:K8 I also excluded deliberately because there's no way ABC opponents are limping K8 from UTG+1 in a nine or ten handed tournament as a common occurrence. Remember - when assigning a range we are considering the most likely action of our opponents PF - and K8 is a standard fold to an every day opponent call Mr Joe Regular from EP.

how are you making these assumptions, we are readless. the only read we have is a limp which usually means bad player.

.roadRuNNer. wrote:Your still a 52% favourite and gambling your whole tournament life when there's really no need. You'll have better opportunities to get it in when it's still so early and your deep stacked.

Folding is fine.

folding is pretty nitty and its a tough spot so i dont hate it, but i think i call and get it in on most rivers - we are 52% against the worst possible range but there are lots of other hands that you havent included. and you havent included bluff raises or enough of the pair + draw hands that could spazz out.

.roadRuNNer. wrote:Conversely, you are most definitely at the mercy of the bet pot button opponent by just calling in these spots. fold or shove.

calling isn't bad here - think of the 2 pair hands that opponent could have that will fold to a shove but will likely stack off on a safe river card. i doubt you can really shove for value here because what calls you? KQ is the only hand that might call that we beat.