AKdd, third in chips on final table, chip leader on left.

[bennymacca]

this is on the final table of a $10 tourney on cake, 8 left, as you can see i am third in chips with a pretty decent stack compared to the rest of the table. chip leader is on my left and is noticing that i have been opening a TON.
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taking ICM into account, whats my play here?
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Hand#251090B9D6000688 – $1,000 Guaranteed T9484758 — Table 8 — 120/600/1200 NL Hold'em — 2011/02/19 – 01:39:16
Seat 1: the ***1 (59,887 in chips)
Seat 2: dara***2 (11,036 in chips) DEALER
Seat 4: flec***4 (48,266 in chips)
Seat 5: OOff***5 (19,195 in chips)
Seat 6: 7win***6 (17,631 in chips)
Seat 8: drag***8 (26,267 in chips)
Seat 9: chri***9 (7,209 in chips)
Seat 10: bennyjams (41,509 in chips)
the ***1: posts ante of 120
dara***2: posts ante of 120
flec***4: posts ante of 120
OOff***5: posts ante of 120
7win***6: posts ante of 120
drag***8: posts ante of 120
chri***9: posts ante of 120
bennyjams: posts ante of 120
flec***4: posts small blind 600
OOff***5: posts big blind 1,200
Dealt to bennyjams [Kd Ad]
7win***6: folds
drag***8: folds
chri***9: folds
bennyjams: raises to 2,400
the ***1: is all in 59,767


here are the payouts, 1k gtd but only 77 registered, so its a pretty good overlay

1. 260
2. 170
3. 132.5
4. 92.5
5. 68.5
6. 51.5
7. 37.5
8. 34
______
9. 29
10. 24.5
11-15. 20

[Scotty]

Although my understanding of ICM is a little shallow, it would be a fold.

[madali]

Depending on what you put his range to be I would fold. You have plenty of chips and don't need to coin flip against most pairs. You may get lucky and he has something like an Ace queen suited or the same hand as you but at this stage don't think you need to take the risk given the little amount you have invested in the pot.

[rcon]

as played (min raise), I'd be folding here.

[krunchie]

the whole point of a min or small 3 bet is so you can fold to a raise/jam, 4 bet easily having not bloated the pot too much or commited to many chips forcing you to shove ( or god forbid call)

that said this is a tough spot, call and hit here and you will have a 40k lead on 2nd and a very large % of the chips in play, its tempting to call, but you will have lost little if you fold.


great hand by the way benny the cunt, this has many different layers of discusion we could cover

ie- why min raise, risk vs reward, opening ranges and 4 bets etc

love it

[madali]

the whole point of a min or small 3 bet is so you can fold to a raise/jam, 4 bet easily having not bloated the pot too much or commited to many chips forcing you to shove ( or god forbid call)

that said this is a tough spot, call and hit here and you will have a 40k lead on 2nd and a very large % of the chips in play, its tempting to call, but you will have lost little if you fold.


great hand by the way benny the cunt, this has many different layers of discusion we could cover

ie- why min raise, risk vs reward, opening ranges and 4 bets etc

love it

Agreed min raising from UTG is fine here. Personally I would be putting you on a fairly strong hand rather than a weak and it looks like you are trying to gain action ( mainly because I know that you are a good player and this deep in a tournament others will have noted this). Not sure how the player has been playing I am assuming he is a good player and will have a fairly strong hand to make this move. I just think the amount you will be risking with a call is far too much this deep in a tournament. As I said before if he has any pair you are best coin flipping for your tournament life. You have a good stack and I think you can wait for better spot to get your money in.


side note; personally I would not be betting any more than 3 x blinds here regardless of my hand ( more likely 2.5x) and most would consider 3x blinds at the high end this deep in to the tournament. I think most pro's would find the min raise here to be standard play.

[bennymacca]

agreed gayle.

with respect to the other players at the table, they were all pretty horrible, i think my overall edge against that field would have been huge, but the big stack seemed to be noticing that i was opening a whole lot, and he started playing back at me, this hand being a good example.

plugging stuff into pokerstove, we go from about 42% to 53% depending on what range villain has, but in general i think its tighter side, because even though the big stack is realising that i am opening a lot and trying to run over the table, i dont think he jams that light and puts his own tourney at risk.

for those that want to know results, i folded.


(i posted this on the TournamentPokerEdge forums and it generated quite a bit of discussion, and apparently they are going to use it as an example in one of their upcoming theory vids, so i cant wait to see how that goes)

[madali]

(i posted this on the TournamentPokerEdge forums and it generated quite a bit of discussion, and apparently they are going to use it as an example in one of their upcoming theory vids, so i cant wait to see how that goes)

benny the cunt I would be interested to know what the general consensus was at the TournamentPokerEdge forum? Were they for or against a call and what was the reasoning.

IMO I do think that if the guy is seeing you push the table around and he is not a good player his range may be wider for this move but not wide enough for the call. If you were lower stacked or had already committed quite a lot more of you chips to the pot it may be a different story but given the amount you have invested I do not see this as being a + EV move.

[.roadRuNNer.]

If the villain is on the tighter side of your calculated range (42-53%), I fold. (ICM considered)

[bennymacca]

(i posted this on the TournamentPokerEdge forums and it generated quite a bit of discussion, and apparently they are going to use it as an example in one of their upcoming theory vids, so i cant wait to see how that goes)

benny the cunt I would be interested to know what the general consensus was at the TournamentPokerEdge forum? Were they for or against a call and what was the reasoning.

IMO I do think that if the guy is seeing you push the table around and he is not a good player his range may be wider for this move but not wide enough for the call. If you were lower stacked or had already committed quite a lot more of you chips to the pot it may be a different story but given the amount you have invested I do not see this as being a + EV move.

if he is a horrible player, then my edge is going to be big against him, so it makes it less likely that i should flip off my stack here


consensus was fold at the start, including a couple of pros, but then a few people suggested call including a couple of other pros so it was on the fence but prolly slightly towards a fold