You're a Bunch of Factors

Cassava Poker $10 + $1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP1: t7596 75.96 BBs
MP2: t2213 22.13 BBs
CO: t3835 38.35 BBs
Hero (BTN): t5334 53.34 BBs
SB: t2900 29 BBs
BB: t9235 92.35 BBs
UTG: t1847 18.47 BBs
UTG+1: t5981 59.81 BBs

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is BTN with 3 3
2 folds, MP1 raises to t200, 2 folds, Hero calls t200, 1 fold, BB calls t100

Flop: (t650) 3 K Q (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets t650, Hero calls t650, BB folds

Turn: (t1950) A (2 players)
MP1 bets t975, Hero calls t975

River: (t3900) 9 (2 players)
MP1 bets t5771, Hero calls t3509 all in


What do we think the villain is likely to have when his cbet is pot sized?

What do we think he definitely doesn't have, if anything?


No real history with this player, not even very many hands played to get too much of an idea but hasn't been a laggy spewtard and hasn't been a nit either. Nothing done to suggest is quite good or is quite bad, basically not enough info to have any real sort of pre-formed opinion. Betting pattern is pretty much all there is to go on here.

I think he c-bets his whole range on that flop and knowing what his c-bet sizing like in the past would be helpful. I don't think you can rule out too many hands on the flop.

Calling is fine because there is a good chance Kx Qx type hands will bet almost all turns. Personally I would reraise his turn bet. You could just ship the turn.

As played, you have to call the river.

J 10

Hands I ruled out instantly were KK and QQ and 33. Also K3 or Q3 due to the raise from MP1 preflop and not having seen him do anything weird previously.

Unfortunately I cannot recall seeing this player c-bet beforehand, due to a lack of hands played together.

If we go with Trishan's pretty solid theory of him c-betting all of his regular c-bet range, his range for both the reasonably early pos raise and for the cbet would be roughly any broadway, any pair? Would you agree with that? That's the range I was considering given he'd not previously been out of line with J7o OOP or anything.

Nathan, you put this player on JT on the flop? How/why?

BigPete33 wrote:Nathan, you put this player on JT on the flop? How/why?

Soul Read.

Come back when you're not being a dork

BigPete33 wrote:Come back when you're not being a dork

The reason I have selected J10 as the hand your opponent had is for the following reasons.

1. More often than not, people who post a hand for discussion post a hand they lost in (so I looked at hands that beat a set of 3s.
2. J 10 (on suit) seems like a logical hand to C bet bet pot sized on the semi-bluff. Try win it there with air.
3. The turn brings J10 the nuts. The better drops from a pot size flop bet to a 1/2 pot turn bet.
4. Villian then shoves the river. A bad player would do this. Either with no show down value, or to scared to check the nuts fearing they will get less winnings.
5. As you pointed out in your post. I factored out other sets and two pairs as per the flop and turn bets.
6. You followed up my J10 post with a "why" leading me to believe, maybe I was on the ball.

How did I go... Either Soul read or completely busto.... lol

Well, you included about a million reasons that had nothing to do with the action on the flop

But since we're doing that now, how often do I post in here AT ALL?

There's just as much chance I cleaned up here and was just puzzled by his line. In fact, I'm definitely puzzled by his line.


The question was "What do we think the villain is likely to have when his cbet is pot sized?"

So I'll ask it a different way just to be clearer and then we can go further through the hand for sure.

Given the actions pre-flop and flop, and including the extra info I was(n't) able to give about knowledge of the player etc - what do we believe this player is most likely to have at that point to make a pot sized c-bet?


I'll happily declare eventually what we both had, this hand just really puzzled me.

BigPete33 wrote:I'll happily declare eventually what we both had, this hand just really puzzled me.

You had pocket 3s

why would villain min raise pre, then smash pot on the flop? it really seems to be like a draw to be honest. JT pretty much came to mind as well. i dont really see why, if you had something like KQ, would you make it so large. if villain is a super fish, then this could also be aces, but i doubt that.

i would put villain on a range of AK/AQ/JT/AA nothing else really makes sense. im not even sure AK and AQ are there.

btw, because a lot of villain's opening range hits that board, i am probably raising this flop and looking to get it in there.