You're a Bunch of Factors

Hey Guys,

Its only 10 days away until the deepstack, and i for one am frickin excited!

I was talking about it with my poker mates the other day at the kingy, and i'd thought id run a poll

we were discussing when the first person would go out of the tournament! first hand?

i personally think that there will be people silly enough to be out within the first blind level. some people will just bet bigger amounts because they have a bigger stack - or they won't respect bets from other people because they have bigger stacks, and they will lose very quickly.

in addition, to that, i did some quick calculations, and at 3 rounds of the table per level, you can fold away for nearly 4 hours before you would get blinded out! how awesome is that!?!

bennymacca wrote:i for one am frickin excited!

2nd that

Russ, xtal and I were discussing something similar, and I remember it came up as a discussion for one of the state finals.

You look down at AA first hand,
you raise,
you get raised,
you raise right back,
and so do they.

Does it all go in preflop?

In a second I say - you can't pass up those sorts of opportunities?

I think some one will get eliminated in the first level, possibly first hand, 'cause with so many runners, there is bound to be a table that gets one "the nuts", and one "the 2nd nuts".

But will it be Pete who gets the 2nd nuts?

Definitely.

Isn't it "the third re-raise is aces"

I remember reading a stat last year or the year before from the WSOP main event (comparable starting stacks); 3 players busted out first hand after having their aces cracked.

Well suppose its the first hand and you look down at AA. Someone else pushes all in. Do you call? Obviously you're ahead pre-flop, and chances are good you will still be ahead on the river. Question is, do you take that chance?

You'll be up against AA, and you'll lose to a flush.

Findog1000 wrote:Well suppose its the first hand and you look down at AA. Someone else pushes all in. Do you call? Obviously you're ahead pre-flop, and chances are good you will still be ahead on the river. Question is, do you take that chance?

Yes ... 'cause there's a repechage tourney

Of course you can lose, question is, how often is that going to happen, as opposed to how often are you going to win.

If someone is dumb enough to call with KK/QQ/AKs and they suck out on you, who cares? Preflop, they've made a mistake, and you know that next time you are lucky enough to be in that spot, you aren't likely to go broke. Just hope it didn't cost you US10K - gotta love NPL!

Findog - its a very big ev+ situation, you'd have to take it wouldn't you?

I have to say that if I was looking down at AA first hand and someone pushed all in before me, I'd almost certainly call. Now, if there were 3 people that were all in before me I'd be a little worried that I was going to get cracked good and proper, but I still think I'd make the call, hoping that two of them were playing hands like AK. Still. Having a good shot at ending up cashed up to the hilt after the first hand, I think I'd have to take a punt with AA.

I'll let you know on the day what happens