One thing I would add to that is the concept of 'Discounting Outs', which also comes back to reads to some degree.
By way of example:
YOU: Kh Tc
Flop: Qd Js 7d
Against, say, 2 opponents in a preflop raised pot (they min-raised from LP and you were the BB is why you called a raise with KTo
)So, as you describe, you have 4 Aces and 4 9s which make your straight.
You make a continuation or feeler bet of 1/2 pot, both opponents call. You might figure the first player has already connected, but you put the 2nd caller on a diamond flush draw.
So now you DON'T want the Ad or 9d as that will make your opponents flush, so you need to discount your outs by 2.
Or you know the player well enough that he/she wouldn't chase the flush unless it was the nut flush, so you figure the Ad is one of his hole cards....
Maybe even your 1st caller is a tight player who would only call with top pair-top kicker, so he has an Ace... (although he should be raising then, but lets put him in the tight-passive box)
Also (OK so I have 2 things to add) a slight improvement on your shortcut method of calculating the percentage chance of hitting your outs:
With turn & river to come: OUTS x 4 + 2 %
On the river : OUTS x 2 + 1 %
(Maybe I'm pedantic, but it is slightly more accurate
)HERE is a Scribd iPaper copy of a decent Poker Math book. Definitely worth a read for beginners.
