Topic 1. Calculating Outs.

[Origami]

Well written little bro.
Do you have nothing to do today?
Now moving on a step; let the people know the importance of hand probabilities: when and how it's used and the importance of using this information in correlation to pot odds and implied odds.
Then we can start talking about fold equity and expected returns.

Think I'll go back to the Stock Market to make some monies.
Price of oil and gold up.

price earnings ratios and equity investment percentage increases
over the fisical first quarter seem to be stable . npl has created employment and personal spendings are up at most participating venues. inflation and foriegn currency flucuations need more study. my hunch BHP Billiton to buy Fosters. FoxSports to do well in the Footy Season !!

[Michael_Whiting]

Well written little bro.
Do you have nothing to do today?
Now moving on a step; let the people know the importance of hand probabilities: when and how it's used and the importance of using this information in correlation to pot odds and implied odds.
Then we can start talking about fold equity and expected returns.

Think I'll go back to the Stock Market to make some monies.
Price of oil and gold up.

price earnings ratios and equity investment percentage increases
over the fisical first quarter seem to be stable . npl has created employment and personal spendings are up at most participating venues. inflation and foriegn currency flucuations need more study. my hunch BHP Billiton to buy Fosters. FoxSports to do well in the Footy Season !!

And I'll take just about any odds offered on an American recession and US federal rate cuts!!!

[sirplus]

You are holding the Qc,Jc on a board of the 9d, 10c, 2,c. How many outs do you have left? So starting with the 4 card straight draw we have 8 outs, the 4 8's and the 4 k's. From the flush draw, we have 9 outs. 13 - 4 leaves 9 clubs. Gives us a total so far of 17 outs. However we have already included the 8c and the Kc from the straight draw. So now we have to go 17-2 = 15 outs. Good position..

Hi Brett
As the pockets are 2 over cards am wondering why we don't add 6 (so 21 outs instead of 15) for the 3 queens and 3 jacks which would have given us top pair. (or at least 3 for the jacks which would give top pair with an overcard of sorts) I know they won't be really strong but, assuming nothing higher pops up on turn or river (8x4% chance =32% it will though) you would be beaten by higher pockets which wouldn't need improving (or lower pockets turning into a set 2x10% assuming they were out there)?

So with 21x4=84% chance I willl hit JJ or better means I would likely stick with this hand depending on my read of my oponents, the friendliness of the turn & river, the pot odds and how much of my stack I will have to commit.

At every stage everything will need to be reassessed. I mean if I hit qq but a A came up and there was pressure I would likely have to bail but then again no different from an 8d comming on turn & then Kd on river; both are counted as outs but not that great in this running combination.

What am I missing; why don't I count those extra 6 outs at least at this stage as long as I reassess whay I might be up against once I see the turn, which I would anyway?

[Brett Kay]

Was wondering who the first person to include the extra 6 outs.

The main point i was trying to bring across, was your hand going to an unbeatable hand.

Suppose you opponent has aces. You need to get runner runner to improve you hand so your 6 outs for trips or two pair, become only 12 % need 1 to hit turn and river. So they effectively become a river %

Hand reading helps in knowing what your opponent has as well. As to whether or not you need to include these outs into your hand.

Brett.

[sirplus]

ok
So the nuts was what we used to avoid the sublety of m*(&!^g up the read.
S+ smiles as he knows all about that........

Can please we do a few tips on the read
Should be helpful to assist all to kick the staffers a'($es in the pallais tourney comming up soon

Whats that; u r a staffer? lmao oops.

In all seriousity (I jus made up a new word), thats where I think the big gains are -when u can read better.....

[Brett Kay]

Unfortunately, that is the weakest part of my game.

Is trying to be able to get reads of players, and to observe them over time

The other brother is a lot better at that.

I am positive i have add at a poker table. need to look at the entire world rather than what is there.

Brett.

[BigPete33]

Ok...so it's after 5am and I'm bored so I made this chart...



OUTS AS A RATIO


All ratios are expressed as <number> to 1 (against)

eg 4:1 (against). I just haven't written the ":1"


OUTS TURN RIVER

25 0.88 0.84
24 0.96 0.92
23 1.04 1.00
22 1.14 1.09
21 1.24 1.19
20 1.35 1.30
19 1.47 1.42
18 1.61 1.55
17 1.76 1.70
16 1.94 1.88
15 2.13 2.07
14 2.36 2.29
13 2.62 2.54
12 2.92 2.83
11 3.27 3.18
10 3.70 3.60
9 4.22 4.11
8 4.88 4.75
7 5.71 5.57
6 6.83 6.66
5 8.40 8.20
4 10.75 10.50
3 14.67 14.33
2 22.50 22.00
1 46.00 45.00

[BigPete33]

So.. as we can see from the above chart to hit a gutshot straight draw (4 outs) on the river (46 cards remaining) it's 10.5 to 1 against.


Let me make this perfectly clear... if you call after the turn with only a gutshot draw and you're not getting about 10 to 1 (or better) as a return on your chips then you are completely mental.

[bennymacca]

well, as an extension to that pete, about 80% of all players that play NPL are completely mental LOL

[BigPete33]

Now you see... I'm too polite to say that but YES THEY ARE.

Driving me nuts lol