Misclick leads to tough descison.....

[rcon]

And yes, I have called a flush draw on the flop, but also laid it down, all depending on the situation at the time....

So you called, knowing you were behind, but the chips you win on the occasion you do hit outweigh the chips you lose when you miss?

[JMACK007]

So you called, knowing you were behind, but the chips you win on the occasion you do hit outweigh the chips you lose when you miss?

Of course. I have called when knowing I was behind plenty of times. I have won 1 or 2 poker hands as well.

The point is, getting back to the original discussion, calling off $100 just because you misclicked and would never have been in a hand to begin with, is throwing bad money after bad money....

[trishan]

benny the cunt, If you flipped a coin 20 times and it came up Heads 20 times, the chances are still 50/50 on the next spin, and every spin there after....

Just because the odds are 50/50, does not GAURANTEE that you will get an exactly even outcome....

We are not saying that the probability somehow changes. Of course it is still 50/50 on every toss.

Think of it this way: You throw a coin 100 times. On each throw the odds of a head or tail is always 50%. You would expect that over 100 throws 50 are heads and 50 are tails. (50% of 100 throws = 50). This is a mathematical expectation.

Now you may toss the coin 100 times and find 60 heads and 40 tails. Even though we expect 50 heads and 50 tails, we get 10 more heads and 10 less tails in this example. That difference between what we expect and what actually occurs is called variance.

Variance will reduce as you increase the number of times you throw the coin. So the variance (the difference between what is expected and what actually occurs) will be less for 10,000 throws than 100 throws.

For a 100 throws we may have a run of heads that leads to 60 heads and 40 tails. But over 10,000 throws this sort of run is reduced. You might end up with 5500 heads and 4500 tails which is different to what we expected, but still the variance is lower. (Variance with 100 throws = 10 (10/100 throws= 10% variance) Variance with 10,000 throws = 500 (500/10,000 throws = 5% variance))

Now if we throw the coin an infinite amount of time, maths says that the number of heads and tails should be equal and variance should be almost negligible.

[BionicMike]

The whole point, Jmack, is that once the misclick has happened, it becomes irrelevant. The situation is 3:1, J6 suited vs a solid regular's 3 bet shoving range. The stakes are also irrelevant.

I wish I had of realised this thread would take off like it has, I would have structured the original post better. I thought it would be Aaron, benny the cunt and old man Swanky laughing at me then it would disappear into the old and useless thread bin.....

[trishan]

So with benny the cunt's door example. We expect to lose two out of three attempts and win one out of three attempts. Each time we select a door the odds are still the same. For every three times we try we expect to lose twice and win once.

We could try three times and lose all three, or win all three, or win one or maybe two. We still expect to win one, but whatever the actual result is, it is just variance. So if we win two out of three the variance is +1 (Actual wins - Expected Wins = 2 -1 = +1). If we lose all three it is -1 (Actual wins - Expected Wins = 0 - 1 = -1)

Just like with the coins if we were to play 10,000 times the variance will reduce and if we were to play an infinite amount of games there would be no variance (variance would approach 0) and our expected and actual results would be pretty much the same.

[JMACK007]

Did you guys actually read the Wiki page Aaron posted?

[rcon]

Of course. I have called when knowing I was behind plenty of times. I have won 1 or 2 poker hands as well.

The point is, getting back to the original discussion, calling off $100 just because you misclicked and would never have been in a hand to begin with, is throwing bad money after bad money....

think of it like a bluff gone wrong on the flop, then you back into a flush draw. Lots of cash in the middle to win, you've got a 1 in 5 chance of winning, do you call when you're getting 6:1 on your money? Of course you do! The fact you've made a mistake (thinking you could bluff someone off the hand to start with) doesn't mean you can't find a profitable spot when something happens to improve your odds.

Mike screwed up, but the villain put just the right ammount of cash in the middle to make this worthwhile.

If both players had $200 over the $100 bet, then the math changes to preclude a call (

$100 from mike
$100 + $200 raise (300)
400 pot
mike requires another 200 to call, making odds of 2:1, not enough for a call.

[Garth Kay]

I'm sorry Jo, but I don't know what more can be said on this matter. We all have tried to explain everything to the best of our abilities and I'm sorry we cannot elaborate in a way that makes sense to you.

Jo, before anybody loses patience I suggest you read a some 2+2 hand discussion, or even SKLANSKY if you can bear with it. You arguments are illogical and wrong, there is no other way to put it; I am not trying to be rude but this thread has continued on for six pages with five other forum regs trying to help you to understand and still you continue to argue.

Math, statistics, probabilities, calculations, equity, realistic hand ranges, +EV are all staples of poker FUNDAMENTALS. +EV is a term every serious poker player should have heard of.

Do you understand that +EV = positive expected value, this relates to if a certain player was made an infinite amount of times the play results in greater profit for the individual than losses. A +EV play is not one individual play that resulted in a profit but rather what happens if the same situation is run though all possible variables of an infinite data run.

Yes I called off on the flush draw (which I win 45% of the time). The 55% of the time I lose $100 but the 45% of the time I win $400. Is it profitable for me? Of course it is.

[BionicMike]

Did you guys actually read the Wiki page Aaron posted?

It made me wanna hit a goat with my car.

[JMACK007]

Yeah, I know you guys are frustrated with me, sorry.

I think in simple terms, the ranges I put on the player there are alot tighter than the ranges you guys put him on. This probably makes me a less profitable player than the rest of you guys.

I put him on AA or KK, so I am quitting while I am ahead (or behind), as I am not getting the same odds as you, simply because of the tighter range.

It probably surprises all of you that I do in fact understand pot odds and pot equity, but don't base all of my decisions purely on these facts....

And Garth, "Illogical"? Seriously?

Sorry for the frustrations...