You're a Bunch of Factors

Just wandering what people thought when faced with an overbet on the river. If you selected the third option please elaborate below.

Lets assume:

*You have no reads
*The play on earlier streets is confusing: You could be crushed/way ahead
*The call would not hurt your stack significantly
*This is a tournament

everyone will say "depends"

do you have any hand histories trishan?

cash game or tourney?


most of the time i think it means extreme strength. in cash games, i use it sometimes when i have the nuts and the other person has shown that they are not getting away from the hand, and it works ok.

especially when you have something like 1.5x the pot left in your stack on the river. sometimes betting 2/3 pot, i.e half your stack, looks stronger than overbet shoving.

sorry just saw your elaboration

hmmm. not sure now.

you got a hand history?

Say this hand (happened recently). This may not be a good example.

Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Murray_Cod ( $7,055 )
Seat 2: carmele77 ( $4,235 )
Seat 3: mikeymike999 ( $5,105 )
Seat 4: pmkel ( $6,745 )
Seat 6: nplking ( $3,860 )
pmkel posts small blind [$25]
nplking posts big blind [$50]
** Dealing down cards **
Murray_Cod folds
carmele77 calls [$50] with [Ac] [5d]
mikeymike999 calls [$50]
pmkel calls [$25]
nplking checks
** Dealing flop ** [4d] [2c] [7s]
pmkel checks
nplking checks
carmele77 checks
mikeymike999 checks
** Dealing turn ** [4h]
pmkel checks
nplking bets [$100]
carmele77 calls [$100]
mikeymike999 folds
pmkel folds
** Dealing river ** [Ad]
nplking bets [$800]
carmele77 ???

Depends on their country of origin.

what are you hoping for in that hand?

what is going to call?

trishan wrote:Say this hand (happened recently). This may not be a good example.

Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Murray_Cod ( $7,055 )
Seat 2: carmele77 ( $4,235 )
Seat 3: mikeymike999 ( $5,105 )
Seat 4: pmkel ( $6,745 )
Seat 6: nplking ( $3,860 )
pmkel posts small blind [$25]
nplking posts big blind [$50]
** Dealing down cards **
Murray_Cod folds
carmele77 calls [$50] with [Ac] [5d]
mikeymike999 calls [$50]
pmkel calls [$25]
nplking checks
** Dealing flop ** [4d] [2c] [7s]
pmkel checks
nplking checks
carmele77 checks
mikeymike999 checks
** Dealing turn ** [4h]
pmkel checks
nplking bets [$100]
carmele77 calls [$100]
mikeymike999 folds
pmkel folds
** Dealing river ** [Ad]
nplking bets [$800]
carmele77 ???

From Carmele holding the A 5 i say its a blocking bet. I probably call here in case i am in kicker troubles and you ahve saved me from pricing the value bet.

From your push your hoping he doesn't have the ace, or if he is he will jam it in.

First thoughts on the situation.

trishan wrote:Say this hand (happened recently). This may not be a good example.

Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Murray_Cod ( $7,055 )
Seat 2: carmele77 ( $4,235 )
Seat 3: mikeymike999 ( $5,105 )
Seat 4: pmkel ( $6,745 )
Seat 6: nplking ( $3,860 )
pmkel posts small blind [$25]
nplking posts big blind [$50]
** Dealing down cards **
Murray_Cod folds
carmele77 calls [$50] with [Ac] [5d]
mikeymike999 calls [$50]
pmkel calls [$25]
nplking checks
** Dealing flop ** [4d] [2c] [7s]
pmkel checks
nplking checks
carmele77 checks
mikeymike999 checks
** Dealing turn ** [4h]
pmkel checks
nplking bets [$100]
carmele77 calls [$100]
mikeymike999 folds
pmkel folds
** Dealing river ** [Ad]
nplking bets [$800]
carmele77 ???

I think unless you have a decent made hand these sorts of bets are bad options.

Carmele77's passive play indicates that it would be most likely that she (he?) will check behind the river A - or possibly bet it is she hit it.

Your $800 gets rid of most hands - except the ones that likely beat you in most cases.

I really think the most important element with these call/fold confusing bets is history. If you have been exposed at doing this earlier in the tourney, i might lean towards calling with Carmele77's A5. If you have been showing down good cards throughout our time on the table (or showing nothing at all) - it's a fold.

I really like playing with people who like the overbet on the river - because the majority of the time it IS a bluff & they get snapped off sooner or later by someone on the table.
It's very hard to draw a rule of thumb on these bets, but if I would it would be

#Only call overbet rivers if you have Top pair or better and the overbetters cards have been exposed as a bluff in the same scenario earlier in the game.

As for making these overbets - I rarely do it - I give up small pots early with nothing or min bet with something that I do not think is a winner. I only really make these bets when I river a full house & the same card fills a flush draw. I also do it when it is a passively played Blind VS Blind situation - but I like to have some sort of hand or position tho.

It is a real thing of mystery the river overbet - I treat it with extreme caution - but pi ss my pants when I call with my A 4 & not only win the hand - but gather the info I have been priced out of aquiring in the previous times this has happened.

If I have an ace here I prolly call

If you read Carmel for an ace that she wont fold and you have a 4 then well played. But this won't get anyone off an ace I don't think

bennymacca wrote:If I have an ace here I prolly call

If you read Carmel for an ace that she wont fold and you have a 4 then well played. But this won't get anyone off an ace I don't think

Is this particular case I flopped top two then turned the straight. I was about 90% sure Carmele had an Ax or maybe K7/Q7/J7 on the river. By the river the pot was 400. So I could either bet anything up to 400 and I get a call 100% of the time. If I raise to 800, with an ace and the action to this point, I think Carmele calls enough to make it more profitable than just value betting. I think anything more than 800 and the move gets kinda borderline.