Push EV calculations for BvB situations

[bennymacca]

still havent' done it yet.

if you want to post answers garth, fair enough, but i will have a crack before i read them

[bennymacca]

pm sent garth

[bennymacca]

have enough people answered for you to post our/your answers yet?

[Garth Kay]

Yes,just busy right now but will try and do it later tonight.

[maccatak11]

I missed most of this one when i was in the snow, but i may still have a go at this. Feel free to post results though if you want to. I have poker tonight so might only get to this later. i have copied the OP to another place so i dont have to read any results.

[Garth Kay]

Ok Guys,

Thanks to benny the cunt, Trishan, Bruce and Chris for their answers.

I noticed you all went into great detail with your answers and details (benny the cunt couldn't help himself and supplied graphs)!

The one thing you all did was assign a very wide hand range to villain in this circumstance and in this circumstance you need to go the other direction.

Villains stats are - (24/18/3.6 - VPIP/PFR/3b)

SO as we can see this player is a fairly tight reg, playing 24% of hands and opening up 18% of them preflop, solid stats. So when he is forced to call off to a 16BB shove he will actually tighten up on his calling range; this will actually lead me into GAP THEORY further along. We can go one step further and say that villain doesn't like to commit chips too much pre as he only has a 3b% of 3.6 (approx 1.5% less than the norm).

So in the scenario we should say that villain will call approx 13 - 16% of the time.

The correct answer is then........................

First one to provide the correct answer in this thread out of the four above will win the prize (as you were all so close to the true answer).

[Origami]

Ok Guys,

Thanks to benny the cunt, Trishan, Bruce and Chris for their answers.

I noticed you all went into great detail with your answers and details (benny the cunt couldn't help himself and supplied graphs)!

The one thing you all did was assign a very wide hand range to villain in this circumstance and in this circumstance you need to go the other direction.

Villains stats are - (24/18/3.6 - VPIP/PFR/3b)

SO as we can see this player is a fairly tight reg, playing 24% of hands and opening up 18% of them preflop, solid stats. So when he is forced to call off to a 16BB shove he will actually tighten up on his calling range; this will actually lead me into GAP THEORY further along. We can go one step further and say that villain doesn't like to commit chips too much pre as he only has a 3b% of 3.6 (approx 1.5% less than the norm).

So in the scenario we should say that villain will call approx 13 - 16% of the time.

The correct answer is then....QQ+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo....................
First one to provide the correct answer in this thread out of the four above will win the prize (as you were all so close to the true answer).

[Chris Trudgeon]

So in the scenario we should say that villain will call approx 13 - 16% of the time.

so at 16.1% stove says.....

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.712% 34.12% 00.59% 113345543 1962847.50 { Jd8d }
Hand 1: 65.288% 64.70% 00.59% 214915738 1962847.50 { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }



We have 34.712% equity in the hand (we will win 34.712% of the time).
Therefore W=0.34712

We know the hand range assigned to the BB is approx 16.1% of hands (found using Pokerstove)

So therefore C=0.161

I know my stack size is 16BBs; so X=16

So therefore SHOVE EV = (1.5 - C) + [C*X*(2W-1)]
= (1.5 - 0.161) + [0.161*16*(0.69424 -1)
= (1.339) + [2.576*-0.30576]
= (1.339) + (-0.78763776)
= 0.55136224

The correct answer is then........................I have us winning 0.55 BB @ 16.1% = shove.

At the time i actually seen this there was no reply and Bruce was browsing the forum so i think my original maths was very rushed...but the answer is shove.

[bennymacca]

when the villain has a 16% calling range (66+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo), we have an expectation value of +0.557 with [jd] [8d]

[Garth Kay]

Ok Guys,

As a follow on from Trishan's posts earlier in this thread I think I should disperse this handy spreadsheet/link for everybody.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tq4AkyzVLRE8c5kJPUfND0Q

This is a spreadsheet that lets you know when, where and what you should be OPEN shoving with when your 20BB's or less.