For Jav1000

[JMACK007]

Ok, main problems I see here are:

1) ROYTRUDGEY had registered for this tourney so why did anyone else bother?

2) Jo, you are outnumbered, therefore you are always wrong.

[Garth Kay]

This thread has gone on for ages - instead of stating what is the correct play how about someone explain to me, and the others in this thread, WHY it is the right play.

It's quite clearly a case of maximising value but I haven't seen anyone try to do the math around this.

In simple layman terms you know Jo is getting called 100% of the time pre - he will win that AIPF 60% of the time (haven't stoved but close enough). If you assign a very wide opening range (four handed, on the button) then this increases further.

The modified stop n go play by Jo loses value as the majority of the time when he does hit an Ace on the flop he loses value as Javier folds out x amount of hands, or does he? If an Ace lands and Jo donk ships his remaining stack what do the pot odds dictate? Even with King high is it a snap call?

To answer that question you need to assign a range to Javier and decide how often he folds when an Ace hits and the likelihood of Javier c betting entire stack, or calling off an all in.

In the end - whilst it is unorthodox and I haven't sat down to really evaluate the hand I don't see a lot of missed value here; the only issue is what range of boards does Jo effectivelly fold out and where is the value in having two bb's left behind.

[bennymacca]

the only issue is what range of boards does Jo effectivelly fold out and where is the value in having two bb's left behind.

i think this is the issue, as jo has mentioned that he will fold given a horrible board.

[JMACK007]

This thread has gone on for ages - instead of stating what is the correct play how about someone explain to me, and the others in this thread, WHY it is the right play.

It's quite clearly a case of maximising value but I haven't seen anyone try to do the math around this.

In simple layman terms you know Jo is getting called 100% of the time pre - he will win that AIPF 60% of the time (haven't stoved but close enough). If you assign a very wide opening range (four handed, on the button) then this increases further.

The modified stop n go play by Jo loses value as the majority of the time when he does hit an Ace on the flop he loses value as Javier folds out x amount of hands, or does he? If an Ace lands and Jo non-thinking player ships his remaining stack what do the pot odds dictate? Even with King high is it a snap call?

To answer that question you need to assign a range to Javier and decide how often he folds when an Ace hits and the likelihood of Javier c betting entire stack, or calling off an all in.

In the end - whilst it is unorthodox and I haven't sat down to really evaluate the hand I don't see a lot of missed value here; the only issue is what range of boards does Jo effectivelly fold out and where is the value in having two bb's left behind.

Thank you Garth for finally putting a reasonable post into this thread.

*Again, Jav was SB, not button, but that doesn't really matter, other than I act last post flop...

Let's put it this way, even though we are talking about fairly low stakes as far as money jumps, The "LAST HAND" that Jav put up in his first post happened not long after I was knocked out. Let's say I do fold on an "unfriendly" flop and leave myself just under 3BB. There is every possibilty that that fold got me 2 pay jumps and into heads up (albeit massively short stacked), and possibly 200-400% more money return. As I said, not much money in that particular tourney, but I have done the same thing in larger tournies that have made alot of difference.

I know it is not the optimal play, but I have stated earlier in this thread my reasoning at the time, knowing what the opponent will do.

As it was, when I did get my chips in, I was extremely unlucky not to double up and move from SS to 3rd in chips, and right back in it...

This thread has gone on for ages.

And this isn't even the hand this thread was created for!!!

[JMACK007]

the only issue is what range of boards does Jo effectivelly fold out and where is the value in having two bb's left behind.

i think this is the issue, as jo has mentioned that he will fold given a horrible board.

Yeah, true, but is there really that much difference between 4.5BB (if I fold), and just under 3 BB (call)? I don't think I'm ever folding here pre, so the difference is whether I get it in pre and get called, or see a flop, get it in and get called.....
The only difference there is that seeing a flop gives me 1 further option (however horrible it may be), whereas, getting it in pre doesn't....

[David]

Not sure why Jav didn't raise enough to put you all in considering your stack.

[JMACK007]

Not sure why Jav didn't raise enough to put you all in considering your stack.

Yeah, particularly if he is gonna shove the flop with air anyway....

[bennymacca]

Yeah, true, but is there really that much difference between 4.5BB (if I fold), and just under 3 BB (call)? I don't think I'm ever folding here pre, so the difference is whether I get it in pre and get called, or see a flop, get it in and get called.....
The only difference there is that seeing a flop gives me 1 further option (however horrible it may be), whereas, getting it in pre doesn't....

there isnt' much difference between 4.5bb and 3bb.

the difference comes from what happens when you win. if you shove 4.5bb and win, you would be up to 10bb ish, and now you have a stack that can do some damage and go for the win. with under 5bb, you are always under the 8ball.

given that we are also short handed, if you fold here and leave yourself 3bb, you have probably 5-8 hands to find a better hand than A7. and given that A7 is in the top 25% of all hands, you will be struggling to find a better one.

now assuming Jav is playing any 2 cards, we are 58% to win (from pokerstove) even if we are a bit tighter with his range and say that he plays the top 40% of hands in this manner, we are still 50.5% to win. that means a 50-60% chance at a 10bb stack.


lets say we fold and are left with 3bb. to get to 10bb, we realistically need to win 2 hands, taking into account there might be a couple of folds in between.

so EVEN IF we get really lucky, and get it in both times as a dominating favourite, (70%), to win BOTH we have a 1-0.7^2 = 51% chance of winning two 70% hands in a row. if we get it in as a 50-50 twice, the chances that we win both decrease to 25%


so, either we take a single shot at winning a hand now with A7, or we rely on getting really lucky and winning two hands in a row later on. and we really dont have the stack to wait.

now i agree that sometimes folding out for a pay bump is a good idea, but you are not guaranteed to move up here - if the other person had shoved as well so there was one all in and then you were sitting there with A7 i would say fold.

does that make sense jmack? i hope it does

[JMACK007]

Yeah, true, but is there really that much difference between 4.5BB (if I fold), and just under 3 BB (call)? I don't think I'm ever folding here pre, so the difference is whether I get it in pre and get called, or see a flop, get it in and get called.....
The only difference there is that seeing a flop gives me 1 further option (however horrible it may be), whereas, getting it in pre doesn't....

there isnt' much difference between 4.5bb and 3bb.

the difference comes from what happens when you win. if you shove 4.5bb and win, you would be up to 10bb ish, and now you have a stack that can do some damage and go for the win. with under 5bb, you are always under the 8ball.

given that we are also short handed, if you fold here and leave yourself 3bb, you have probably 5-8 hands to find a better hand than A7. and given that A7 is in the top 25% of all hands, you will be struggling to find a better one.

now assuming Jav is playing any 2 cards, we are 58% to win (from pokerstove) even if we are a bit tighter with his range and say that he plays the top 40% of hands in this manner, we are still 50.5% to win. that means a 50-60% chance at a 10bb stack.


lets say we fold and are left with 3bb. to get to 10bb, we realistically need to win 2 hands, taking into account there might be a couple of folds in between.

so EVEN IF we get really lucky, and get it in both times as a dominating favourite, (70%), to win BOTH we have a 1-0.7^2 = 51% chance of winning two 70% hands in a row. if we get it in as a 50-50 twice, the chances that we win both decrease to 25%


so, either we take a single shot at winning a hand now with A7, or we rely on getting really lucky and winning two hands in a row later on. and we really dont have the stack to wait.

now i agree that sometimes folding out for a pay bump is a good idea, but you are not guaranteed to move up here - if the other person had shoved as well so there was one all in and then you were sitting there with A7 i would say fold.

does that make sense jmack? i hope it does

Of course it makes sense mate, and thanks for taking the time to type it all out. Of course, I know all of that.

I have already said above my reasoning at the time, can't really say much more...

**Except, I thought the chances of winning 2 50-50 chances in a row was 33%?

[bennymacca]

**Except, I thought the chances of winning 2 50-50 chances in a row was 33%?

nope, chances of winning two 50-50 chances in a row is 0.5*0.5 = 0.25