Somebody tell me the odds...

[David]

I didn't read your whole post

Well, I don't think I did.

I think I read it that ...

- On the 3rd hand, your odds are .45% - Correct.


- On the third hand, your odds are .45%, if you hit the same hand for the previous two hands. - Which I don't agree with

At least I don't think so

I'm tired

[AceLosesKing]

Cheers benny the cunt, I was waiting for someone to answer that. Good to see we've got a few maths nerds on this forum

1 in 16,315... wow. Guess I got lucky

[David]

Reminds me of the argument I had with someone about doors and prizes...

You are asked to pick one of three doors. Donkeys are behind two of them, and a new car is behind another.

After you choose your door, but before it's revealed to you, the presenter opens one of the doors you didn't choose and reveals a donkey.

He then asks if you'd like to switch from your initial choice to the remaining closed door.

Do you switch?

[AceLosesKing]

Reminds me of the argument I had with someone about doors and prizes...

You are asked to pick one of three doors. non-thinking player are behind two of them, and a new car is behind another.

After you choose your door, but before it's revealed to you, the presenter opens one of the doors you didn't choose and reveals a non-thinking player.

He then asks if you'd like to switch from your initial choice to the remaining closed door.

Do you switch?

Yes. I read all about this once. The odds are there for you to switch.

http://plus.maths.org/issue5/puzzle/solution.html

I can't find the Wiki link to it, but that does a pretty good job (better than my link above) of explaining why you should switch.

Edit: Forget it, I found the wiki link straightaway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

[David]

Yup.

Just because a door is opened that reveals a donkey, doesn't change the fact there is more chance you are wrong, than right.

If you change doors, there is more chance you'll win. Doesn't mean you will, but there is more chance.

[bennymacca]

I didn't read your whole post

Well, I don't think I did.

I think I read it that ...

- On the 3rd hand, your odds are .45% - Correct.


- On the third hand, your odds are .45%, if you hit the same hand for the previous two hands. - Which I don't agree with

At least I don't think so

I'm tired

basically, its a logical AND of the probabilities.

whenever you read aloud and say AND, it means you have to multiply probabilities.

so if you are talking about getting AA in isolation on the first hand, or the third hand, the probablility is the same, because they are independent events.

but if you are talking about getting AA on the first hand AND the third hand, then you multiply the probabilities together

= 0.45% * 0.45% = 0.002%

what i did then was say that twice in 3 hands meant you could have AA on the first 2 hands of the 3, or the last 2 hands, and these still count as twice in 3 hands, so i multiplied by 3.

but if you wanna talk about getting AA on hand 1 and then AA on hand 3 then its 1 in 49000, so thats what i probably should have quoted.

by extension, if you wanna talk about getting pocket rockets 3 times in a row, then you have to cube the percentage of getting pocket rockets once, which equates to about 1 in 10million

[bennymacca]

1 in 16,315... wow. Guess I got lucky

i actually think its 1 in about 49382 now.

i was counting 3 different possibilities for "twice in 3 hands"

poss 1: AA AA XX
poss 2: AA XX AA
poss 3: XX AA AA

if all of these possibilities are allowed, then its 1/16000
if only possibility 2 is allowed then its 1/50000

[AceLosesKing]

Well, that's even better, lol.

[maccatak11]

If we want to represent what benny the cunt is talking about here, we can use what is called a probability tree diagram where A stands for the probability of aces and A' is not aces.

By following the tree along each path, and multiplying the probabilities along the way, you can find the chances of each possible combination occurring.

[bennymacca]

wow matt, i suppose being a maths teacher does make you learn something about maths - or at least explain it in a way that these dudes can understand it.

btw, that monty hall problem is very interesting.

ive got another question like that, ill post it tonight