Cowboys shotup in a shootout.

[Todd Rivers]

would they of held up?

I'm betting you are a "Can we see the river card?" type person Steve

Yes they would have held, but thats not the point. I will still fold them on the bubble when there is something larger at stake. (unless I'm way chipped up of course)

[bennymacca]

for arguments sake, lets say you are in a $100 tourney, and you are on the bubble, and the payday is 200.

you are short stacked, with 10BB

you get dealt aces, and there are 3 allins for more than your stack before you

is it worth taking a risk on the bubble, so that you could get up a decent stack and go really deep, or limping into the cash and guaranteeing yourself 200 or not much more.

i would be inclined to take a risk - chances are that you have most of the hands dominated.

i suppose it depends on the payout

[Chelsea4thewin]

would they of held up?

I'm betting you are a "Can we see the river card?" type person Steve

no i never want to see the river, its the card that always seem to fu** me over

[rcon]

you are short stacked, with 10BB

you get dealt aces, and there are 3 allins for more than your stack before you

is it worth taking a risk on the bubble, so that you could get up a decent stack and go really deep, or limping into the cash and guaranteeing yourself 200 or not much more.

I would not in this spot - you've got 3 all-ins, so you're thinking at least one is going home empty handed, maybe two. You're first goal should always be to cash, then take risks so you can go as far as possible. Provided you're looking at playing for $$, and not just for the glory of a win. Even then, 4 way, are aces still a massively EV+ hand?

[bennymacca]

i think i worked out that against 4 other players playing random cards, that Aces are 50% to win

this would be much higher if the other players are only playing top 20% say, because most of the hands are dominated by aces, and not many hands have 2 undercards.


so for arguments sake, lets say you are 50% to win the hand

if you happen to win that hand, you have a big stack and the chance to go really deep and make some big money

if you fold, you are pretty much resigning yourself to once of the first out after the bubble.

in a big MTT, you will never make good money by limping into the cash, only when you finish on the final table, and usually top 5 or so at that.

its a tough one, but i would still think that at worst you are 5050 to win, and at best you are 80 to 90% (likely that people are holding AK or KK, so you have them smashed)

[rcon]

Fair call, I supposed I'm looking at it from a SnG point of view, where pretty much you try and cash, then take risks - get some ROI. Just wish I could follow this advice more closely when playing!

I've been know to make that call with AA, AK, KK and even AQ when short stacked on the bubble for NPL, but I've only bubbled bigger MTT a few times, and I never had the luxury of a big hand in those spot;-)

[bennymacca]

yeah i think your right rcon - if you are playing in a STT, and by folding you are most certainly in the cash, then i might think about folding, but i probably couldn't bring myself to fold aces - i dont think i am good enough for that.

[Des]

So really its a coin flop. Do you wanna toss a coin to choose between cashing and not cashing?

I dunno what I'd do... i forget what aces look like... or what it's like to be on the bubble.

[Chelsea4thewin]

des 3000 posts

get a life

[Des]

this coming from someone who has done 4 (5 now) less posts than me this year

and i dont wear womens sunglasses