Single table SnG Bubble spot

[gmatical]

PokerStars Game #49544041060: Tournament #310681120, $20+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2010/09/13 3:49:04 ET
Table '310681120 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: 8fttall (9502 in chips)
Seat 5: g-mackitymac (1793 in chips)
Seat 6: rploch02 (1350 in chips)
Seat 7: slickyis30 (855 in chips)
8fttall: posts small blind 100
g-mackitymac: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to g-mackitymac [8s 8c]
rploch02: folds
slickyis30: folds
8fttall: calls 100
g-mackitymac:??

8fttall has KO'ed every other player with superior cards - has not done anything fancy.

Noting stack sizes and the fact that I am sitting fairly pretty to get at least 3rd - should I resist my urge to shove or is another play a better option (check or raise non-shove amount)

ICM calculations would be appreciated if anyone has the inclination (it would be appreciated).

Pay outs were as follows 1st $90, 2nd $54 3rd $36.

[AceLosesKing]

Check and see what happens.

[bennymacca]

from this site http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx

this is the ICM for placing in the tournament

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Totals
100.000
big stack 70.385 23.360 05.555 - - - - - - - 99.300
gmatical 13.281 33.940 32.909 - - - - - - - 80.131
Player 3 10.000 25.975 34.668 - - - - - - - 70.643
Player 4 06.333 16.726 26.867 - - - - - - - 49.927


i.e to get it in here, you need at least 80% equity.

so i think your range should be KK and AA and thats it.

[Bacon]

KK or AA just to check?

[trishan]

KK or AA just to check?

[Garth Kay]

I haven't completed ICM calcs, but I don't think I am ever just checking here and looking to play passive post flop strat with less than 10BB's.

You should never re raise to an amount that is not all in here. Better to move your whole stack in with 10BB's as any legitamate three bet still has you committed to any four bet shoves/spaz.

For me this is an easy ship into the middle.

I also think that believing a min cash is possible with the current stacks is a big error. Folding to the money is just not GTD with current blinds and stack sizes.

[bennymacca]

I haven't completed ICM calcs, but I don't think I am ever just checking here and looking to play passive post flop strat with less than 10BB's.

You should never re raise to an amount that is not all in here. Better to move your whole stack in with 10BB's as any legitamate three bet still has you committed to any four bet shoves/spaz.

For me this is an easy ship into the middle.

I also think that believing a min cash is possible with the current stacks is a big error. Folding to the money is just not GTD with current blinds and stack sizes.

if you are going to do anything, it is definitely a ship and not just a raise

[Brett Kay]

I hate these spots. Usually if i am the big stack i am raising every hand to commit most of the chips of my opponents. The limp would have me worried depending on how he has used his big stack before. If he has been raising and this is the first time he has limped signals strength to me, trying to get the majority of the opponents money.

If he has always limped, you can shove and see if he will call off. But i always prefer the shove get more chips so that the other two are feeling the pressure a lot more.

Should always be playing for the win in a sng. You find the return on your buy in is always pretty much crap for 3rd.

[AJG]

this is the ICM for placing in the tournament

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Totals
100.000
big stack 70.385 23.360 05.555 - - - - - - - 99.300
gmatical 13.281 33.940 32.909 - - - - - - - 80.131
Player 3 10.000 25.975 34.668 - - - - - - - 70.643
Player 4 06.333 16.726 26.867 - - - - - - - 49.927


i.e to get it in here, you need at least 80% equity.

so i think your range should be KK and AA and thats it.

This is not what ICM indicates at all (ie u need 80% eq to go allin)
To call an allin from the BS you need about 75% equity to make the call, but here the BS needs way better than a limping range to call a push from gmat.... Not likely if he is limping from the SB. Although the limp also says he probably wouldnt understand this.
If you interpret the 80 above as needing 80% equity, what does the 99 mean for the BS?? Anyway that number is meaningless as all you have done is add up the probabilities of coming 1st - 3rd ??

This should be a shove almost every time. But especially if you havent been too aggressive recently.
Against a reasonable limping range, you have very good equity if called:

Code: Select all

 
Hand 0:    63.205%  { 88 }
Hand 1:    36.795%  { 77-22, A9s-A2s, KTs-K7s, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, QJo, JTo, T9o }


gmat: Forget "Play to win/Play to cash" mentality in SnGs... (sry Brett)
Get to the bubble, then you make +ve tournament equity plays. (as mistakes by your opponents make you $$)
A push here and a fold increase your stack ~25%, folding obv decreases your equity, and you are in decent shape if called (see above). What, are you thinking "There's a very short stack, I can fold into the money?"... what happens if said SS doubles up?

Code: Select all

Chips (caller): 1793
Equity: 0.234045 = $42.12 ($20 tournament of 9 players)
Standard deviation: 0.148782
Place: Probability and equity from incremental prize.
1: 13.28% $4.78
2: 33.94% $8.50
3: 32.91% $28.84


[Brett Kay]

gmat: Forget "Play to win/Play to cash" mentality in SnGs... (sry Brett)

No need to apologise it is all an opinion.

Most 9 handed sit n go's start with 13500 chips on the table. As the blinds go up i play to see where i am. At 100/200 the game will be over in 2 to 3 more levels, it call comes down to who is going to be aggressive enough to accumulate chips to survive to that point. If you haven't already accumulated them already. By playing for first, you become more aggressive and will steal a lot more orphaned pots than you would if your passive. Padding your stack by 10/20% every few hands, makes a big difference when you get to those end zone moments.