AFL 2012

[bennymacca]

if was a demon fan i would cut myself

[bennymacca]

not sure how many of you read the herald sun's footy content, but it is awesome.

it seems this year that most of it has gone behind the dreaded paywall though.

there is a laughably easy way around it though. copy the whole title of the article and paste into google, then click on the first story. it will come up with the FULL article.

(it works for the australian too)

[AceLosesKing]

I tried to read The Tackle, but yeah paywall. Found it elsewhere though.

Cheers for the trick, will try that next time.

[trishan]

Tonight is Carlton and Brisbane and I think Carlton should win this easily despite Brisbane's efforts last week. There were question marks over where Brisbane would get their goals from last week and Tom Rockliff was the answer thanks to good supply from the midfield. I think Carlton's midfield will totally dominate the Lions and the inside 50 supply won't be as forthcoming. Given this I think Carlton will win and win well. So betting wise I am on:
Carlton 40+ @ $3.00
Carlton -21.5/Under 191.5 @ $3.75
The safest and best bet is Carlton -20.5 @ $1.95

[AceLosesKing]

I have the biggest man crush on Tom Rockliff.

[Jav1000]

Tonight is Carlton and Brisbane and I think Carlton should win this easily despite Brisbane's efforts last week. There were question marks over where Brisbane would get their goals from last week and Tom Rockliff was the answer thanks to good supply from the midfield. I think Carlton's midfield will totally dominate the Lions and the inside 50 supply won't be as forthcoming. Given this I think Carlton will win and win well. So betting wise I am on:
Carlton 40+ @ $3.00
Carlton -21.5/Under 191.5 @ $3.75
The safest and best bet is Carlton -20.5 @ $1.95

I'm thinking the opposite as I don't think Carlton are value at all.

Home ground advantage is a big factor and I reckon they are going better than people are giving them credit for.

I'm gonna back them straight out at $4 or better and have a cheeky $10 @$25 or better (40+) on Betfair.

[trishan]

Yeh, fair enough.

Interesting to note that before the Melbourne win, the Lion's record without Brown was something like 1 win from their last 14 games In Brisbane's win over Carlton early last year Brown kicked 7 goals. When they met later on in the year without Brown they got beaten by 55 points. So clearly the Brown factor is massive.

Also the Lions have only had a 5 day turnaround.

Will be an interesting game.

[Jav1000]

Yeh, fair enough.

Interesting to note that before the Melbourne win, the Lion's record without Brown was something like 1 win from their last 14 games In Brisbane's win over Carlton early last year Brown kicked 7 goals. When they met later on in the year without Brown they got beaten by 55 points. So clearly the Brown factor is massive.

Also the Lions have only had a 5 day turnaround.

Will be an interesting game.

Yeah, good points and Carlton should be favourites for the game but just reckon they're far too short for my liking.

Hoping it's a good game!

[trishan]

I can think Brisbane are doing a lot better in the centre than I thought. Not necessarily good clearances but they are getting it out the centre by being hard on the ball and sometimes unconventionally (I saw two hacks off the ground into the forward 50). Brisbane have been a lot more accurate and Carlton have missed some good opportunities. All in all, I think Carlton will push away in the second half.

[trishan]

Carlton 40+ @ $3.00 WIN
Carlton -21.5/Under 191.5 @ $3.75 LOSS
Carlton -20.5 @ $1.95 WIN

In hindsight, the under was a bad choice.