ok this is my bad beat

[Scotty]

Aren't you counting the jack of clubs twice there, benny the cunt?

[bennymacca]

Aren't you counting the jack of clubs twice there, benny the cunt?

lol yes, yes i am

so i was right the first time, 12 outs it is.

so 8 flush cards, J of clubs, and 3 other Jacks = 12 outs.

i will edit again!!!

[krunchie]

Yea i had that bit right, witht the 8 x flush and 4 x jacks but it was the ace and 10 i had wrong.

So you only calculate to the next street, if one of your cards hit you re caluculate the set etc

[Scotty]

As benny the cunt said, it gets abit complicated after that. You have to recalculate based on what the turn brings.

[krunchie]

Ok so its been a slow day so i thought i would put some work into calculating odds and pot odds.

Ive been back to the stuff Brett posted months back and have been working my way through it.

Seeings this is my first decent foray into this numbers based approach to poker, i thought i might get a few stupid questions out of the way.

1/
Can you calculate your outs and therfore your pot odds pre flop.

ie you have pocket 7's and there is a big bet in front of you is it worth the call.

2/
I think i have my head round caluculating pot odds from post flop and the turn ( using outs as a comparison).
But how do you do calulate your pot odds post river when there is no outs to calulate and compare it to.

[krunchie]

Actually i think i may have worked out the first one my self so ill run a scenario here so you can correct me if im off.

So i have mid pockets (sevens) and there is a bet 600 in front of me on a 200 big blind pot. the pot now stands at 800

i am a 12% chance of hitting a set on the river (2 outs x 3 streets x 2)

i wouldnt play pocket sevens past the river normally without hitting a set so i dont work my odds out on 5 streets (i hope this is right)

so this gives me a ratio of approx 8:1.

the bet he is asking me to call is approx 1.3:1 so its a bad call.

if it was a call of 100 into a 1000 pot then the odds would be 10:1 and would be a good call.

am i right, do i have my head round this thing

[bennymacca]

you are essentially right krunchie. in your example, you are assuming that teh other player has an overpair to your sevens.

if they have AK, then you are prolly 52% to win, or if they have 66, then you would be 80%.

it gets much more complicated when you start talking about implied odds as well.

the mathematical aspect is one of the reasons why i love poker.

[krunchie]

ok thats great

what about my second question

any ideas

[maccatak11]

Krunchie, the formula benny the cunt mentioned is the easiest way to work out post flop odds, which is the situation where most people would use it (i.e. i have a flush draw and a straight draw, what are my chances?)

so the formula is: outs x streets to come x 2


With practice, it becomes really easy - especially as you automatically know there is 9 outs for a flush draw etc etc.



ps, on a side note, i think its great that krunchie has posted all of his bad beats in a single thread, whereas bad beat stories from bennymacca and ALK should be moved to their own sub-forum on this site

[AceLosesKing]

Speaking of beats...

Game #8696608279: Table Far Hills - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:30:53 ET - 2008/10/28
Seat 1: BienAlto ($10)
Seat 2: -Mawbster- ($50.45)
Seat 3: rooster667 ($50)
Seat 4: AcLosesKing10_3 ($78.95)
Seat 5: Havilaci ($10)
Seat 6: mayflowerlim ($10.50)
Seat 7: alwang85 ($21.75)
Seat 8: Bman425 ($29.65)
Seat 9: axion26 ($14.95)
AcLosesKing10_3 posts the small blind of $0.25
Havilaci has 5 seconds left to act
Havilaci posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AcLosesKing10_3 [Qc Qs]
mayflowerlim folds
alwang85 calls $0.50
Bman425 calls $0.50
axion26 calls $0.50
BienAlto folds
-Mawbster- folds
rooster667 calls $0.50
AcLosesKing10_3 has 15 seconds left to act
AcLosesKing10_3 raises to $4.75
Havilaci has 15 seconds left to act
Havilaci adds $0.50
Havilaci folds
alwang85 has 15 seconds left to act
alwang85 folds
Bman425 folds
axion26 calls $4.25
rooster667 has 15 seconds left to act
rooster667 adds $0.50
rooster667 folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 7c Kh]
AcLosesKing10_3 bets $10
axion26 calls $10
*** TURN *** [5c 7c Kh] [4d]
AcLosesKing10_3 bets $0.50
axion26 calls $0.20, and is all in
AcLosesKing10_3 shows [Qc Qs]
axion26 shows [8s 9s]
Uncalled bet of $0.30 returned to AcLosesKing10_3
*** RIVER *** [5c 7c Kh 4d] [6c]
AcLosesKing10_3 shows a pair of Queens
axion26 shows a straight, Nine high
axion26 wins the pot ($30.35) with a straight, Nine high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31.90 | Rake $1.55
Board: [5c 7c Kh 4d 6c]
Seat 1: BienAlto didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: -Mawbster- didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: rooster667 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: AcLosesKing10_3 (small blind) showed [Qc Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 5: Havilaci (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: mayflowerlim didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: alwang85 folded before the Flop
Seat 8: Bman425 folded before the Flop
Seat 9: axion26 showed [8s 9s] and won ($30.35) with a straight, Nine high

axion26 had been loose all game, I knew he didn't have the K, and I was willing to risk $10 to put him in first, couldn't check-call his all in.

And wtf.