Poker Question July 13th

[muzzington]

I really dislike the raise all in here.

I agree with the comments on fold equity, but I do not see the point on semi bluffing an aggressive player at this stage. There are better traps that can be laid.

There is no mention of his post flop tendencies either, so your shove could still be called by a loose aggressive player. I prefer to either flat the flop and hope to connect with the board in some manner of fold the flop.

Calling here also means my opponent is still in control of the hand and out of position on the turn. I minimise my risk and involvement in the hand by flatting the flop and deciding on my play on the turn, a spade makes my hand and if the turn bricks out I can get away from my hand with minimal losses.

All of you are approaching this as how is the best way to win this hand, I am approaching it from a point of view that I have a Laggy opponent who is chaotic and could do anything as I don't have enough information, so which play can possibly maximize my value and profit if I do make a hand and what play also minimises my potential losses if I do brick out.

I seriously doubt you are guaranteed a fold and although his opening range is potentially huge you have no information on what he is 3 betting you with. He is protecting his blind, but his potential range could be smaller than expected.

With the information at hand a semi bluff is a decent play, but I lose value in this hand by playing it this way. If I shove on every flopped flush draw over an ag player I am never getting paid off for my big hands.

I just don't like it.

The hand description says this player has re-raised out of the BB 3 times, because of this it doesn't necessarily mean he's loose/aggressive post flop, he may just be putting pressure on pre flop. He may just be an ardent defender of his blind.

I wouldn't make this play all the time, but against this opponent, from the information I have, I think a push is a decent play. If he folds, great, and it also sends him a message.

[AceLosesKing]

All of you are approaching this as how is the best way to win this hand,

Do you agree that shoving here is the best chance of winning this hand?

I seriously doubt you are guaranteed a fold and although his opening range is potentially huge you have no information on what he is 3 betting you with. He is protecting his blind, but his potential range could be smaller than expected.

If its his 3rd 3b in a few orbits (all from the BB no less), we can assume that he is fairly aggressive and his range to 3b here is wide (at least preflop). This is a standard board to cbet, good texture, I don't see a hand that he 3bs pre and doesn't fire on this flop. Notes on his postflop play would be good, but it seems like we're dealing with a player that wants to win every hand here.

With the information at hand a semi bluff is a decent play, but I lose value in this hand by playing it this way. If I shove on every flopped flush draw over an ag player I am never getting paid off for my big hands.

I just don't like it.

I can agree with this.

Does anyone have any plan for what we do on the turn, assuming we flat the flop and he checks to us?

Looking forward to the answer to this question, btw.

[Garth Kay]

His range from this position is huge, and yes he will probably c bet his whole range here 100% of the time.

I am not one of those players who think: "I am heads up in a three bet pot, so all of these chips have to go into the pot on the flop". It's a ridiculous statement, I am not a fan of playing draws passively but against an ag player heads up I am willing to let him take control of the betting.

The turn really opens up some options for value, you hit any part of your hand you are generally ahead and you have priced him in to call a re shove. You can flat the spade if you wish to trap and see what he does on the river. If he checks the turn I can claim the pot with minimal fuss or risk. If he makes another bet and I haven't connected I fold.

In this hand I have position and am unsure of how my opponent will react to any of my shoves. He needs to fold 30% of the time for the shove on the flop to be an effective +EV play. I am not guaranteed he will fold this amount of the time.

Also although his hand range is huge, a lot of his range has you beat on the flop, almost all of his re raise range for a LAG player has you in dire straits. I just don't know whether he wall call off with A high on that board or come along with mid pockets.
Just not enough information for the re ship to be the most effective play.

[bennymacca]

what is his 3betting range here?

you have to assume its really wide, because he has been doing it a lot

i would say 66+, Aj+ A9s+, KQo+, KJs+ (it could even be wider than this)

if he is aggressive, he is continuing all of his range there.

how much of it is calling a shove?

QQ+ are prolly calling KK AA obv are, 66-JJ marginal/fold, AK, KQ, KJ, flush draws maybe

how much of this makes up his range?

do you think his pre flop range is wider/narrower that i have done up there?

[muzzington]

Looking at the hand in reverse would be interesting. If we were the BB player here and had something like K10 and had just been raised all-in, do you always absolutely call? Try to forget the 89 suited, what else could he have that he's calling with on the button after our raise in the BB (Which we've done a lot).

[BigPete33]

He may have actually had a reasonable hand in the BB those 3 or 4 times

A stubborn defender of their blind indicates to me that they're less worried about what hand they actually have and aren't likely to fold anyway so I don't think you have enough info and a rejam would likely mean a call and then praying to hit the flush.

If you'd seen him do it something like 9 or 10 times then I completely agree with a rejam.


It really looks more and more like fold and wait for a better spot or flat call if you believe you can get away from it cheapish should you brick the turn. I lean towards the fold.


+1 to what Garth just said as I was typing this.

[Garth Kay]

All of you are approaching this as how is the best way to win this hand,

Do you agree that shoving here is the best chance of winning this hand?

I do not have enough information for me to answer this question. I have a 32% chance of connecting with the board on the turn, there is fold equity there. But there is also implied value by flatting. I am not always looking to win hands on the flop, nor am I always looking to play draws passively.

I seriously doubt you are guaranteed a fold and although his opening range is potentially huge you have no information on what he is 3 betting you with. He is protecting his blind, but his potential range could be smaller than expected.

If its his 3rd 3b in a few orbits (all from the BB no less), we can assume that he is fairly aggressive and his range to 3b here is wide (at least preflop). This is a standard board to cbet, good texture, I don't see a hand that he 3bs pre and doesn't fire on this flop. Notes on his postflop play would be good, but it seems like we're dealing with a player that wants to win every hand here.

We are only told he has 3 bet his BB three times in this session, how many orbits thus far in this session? If it's 80 then he has three bet his BB from a position raise 4% of the time, even if it's ten orbits that 30% of the time. So his range could be much tighter than previously thought. You need more information of pre flop aggressiveness in other positions and how many orbits over all.

With the information at hand a semi bluff is a decent play, but I lose value in this hand by playing it this way. If I shove on every flopped flush draw over an ag player I am never getting paid off for my big hands.

I just don't like it.

I can agree with this.

Does anyone have any plan for what we do on the turn, assuming we flat the flop and he checks to us?

I answered in the previous post. If he checks to us and the turn bricked I am thinking 2/3 pot for value, maybe even half pot (but that's a weak turn bet and still may price him in). I am thinking a 1/2 to 3/4 pot if my flush falls, I want him to spazz out and spew. I want my bet to be small enough to scream weakness and that I am trying to take down the pot but large enough that his only real move is to ship it in.

Looking forward to the answer to this question, btw.

[Garth Kay]

There is not enough information in the question to really design a re ship range for this player.

What is the data sample? How many hands have been played? How many orbits? PF tendencies of opponent from other positions?

With the lack of info I don't think you can over analyze this hand. I stand by my flat call. I risk less and open up more opportunities to win this pot on turn.

I am not sacrificing my position, or the potential value, on the flop by shoving. But then again I am more of a post flop player.

And yes Muzz a truly ag player calls with a K here. He does not fold.

[muzzington]

I know going all-in is an "easier" play to make. I see how calling on the flop is a good play if he checks on the turn, opening up some choices for you to check behind and get a free river card, or fire a bet and take the pot there ( or even on the river if he makes a weak play).

[bennymacca]

the problem as i see it, is that if he continues on that board, then he is probably firing most turns there as well.

so garth, your line would be to flat a 3bet, flat a flop bet, then fold to a brick turn if he fires?

thats seems too passive to me. 200+BB deep, then i would play it this way as well, but when you are only 100BB deep, you have put 1/4 of your stack in very passively.