Poker Question July 13th

[Garth Kay]

Think it was 40% for calling and 37% for all-in.

What do you think of his bet size on the flop Garth? Can you ascertain anything from that?

Standard c bet.

Nothing special and no past history. Something about that size in a 1/2 game can mean c betting with air or c betting with strength but worried about potential draws.

[bennymacca]

I was gonna pull out a quote from Sklansky or Brunson RE: folding when a call is +EV but I couldnt find it. Basically sometimes its more +EV to fold a +EV situation knowing that there will be a better +EV situation around the corner.

You can definitely use this guys agression at a later stage in a better position and not necessarily with aces.

i agree with this. every 55% coin flip probably shouldn't be taken, because of the reasons mentioned. good point


at what point does your equity in a situation become a MUST call, purely on the maths? 60%? is that a question that can be answered, or is it always situation dependent?

Now if we were holding 9T of spades we should rejam instantly because we just know we're going to be shipping it.

haha this i agree with

sharing favourite hands with pete FTW

[Garth Kay]

poll is showing

Fold 10%
Call 41%
RAI 36%
Min raise 13%


i dont like the answer either, but i still think shoving is the way to go.

garth, are you happy folding the turn if he fires again?

**edit** benny the cunt... where did he say aces? that's ridiculous

i was just making a point that folding and waiting for a better spot isnt +EV if a current situation is +EV.

you can claim that a current situation is marginal, but saying its +EV and then folding is wrong

this is a marginal spot though, ill stop arguing on semantics.

I am happy to fold the turn if it bricks and he fires out a big enough bet. Actually I am not happy but I guess I need to shut down there. If he double barrels here I am putting him on something that definitely has me beat and any shove will definitely be called.

In basic correlation the shove isn't exactly +EV. You need to know what the player tendencies are when looking to call of his stack and his range of hands he will call of with.

[muzzington]

The more I think about it the more I think the question was written by someone like me, what with the lack of information and an "easy" answer in that you don't to make any tough/complicated decisions later in the hand, you just shove it all-in, which is something I might do at those limits being nervous and all. Someone with more experience and knowledge that plays those limits or higher would probably provide more information to consider.

[bennymacca]

The more I think about it the more I think the question was written by someone like me, what with the lack of information and an "easy" answer in that you don't to make any tough/complicated decisions later in the hand, you just shove it all-in, which is something I might do at those limits being nervous and all. Someone with more experience and knowledge that plays those limits or higher would probably provide more information to consider.

this is right

but you can also have a discussion based on limited information.

sometimes i think that just saying "cant answer, need more info" is a bit of a cop out (not saying that anyone has answered this way just now)



garth, what effect does stack size have on your play in this spot?

for me, shorter stack leans more towards a shove (forget how we got to the flop, i.e dont answer fold pre)
with a larger stack, a flat as opposed to a raise or shove i think is better.


what would your lines be if you had 75bb? 200bb?

[bennymacca]

In basic correlation the shove isn't exactly +EV. You need to know what the player tendencies are when looking to call of his stack and his range of hands he will call of with.

definitely this

[muzzington]

The more interesting scenario is what you do on the turn if you decide to call. Is there any reason to go over the top of another bet (depending on the size)? If he checks, do you check behind? Do you bet if he checks?

[bennymacca]

The more interesting scenario is what you do on the turn if you decide to call. Is there any reason to go over the top of another bet (depending on the size)? If he checks, do you check behind? Do you bet if he checks?

ok, assume you call, and the turn doesn't change the situation

if he checks turn, its an interesting one. the only uber strong hand that would fire flop and check turn would prolly be a set of kings. maybe AK or aces as well, as a slow play. but that wouldn't happen too often because of the flush draw. he might do this if you are also an aggressive player. more likely he probably thinks that you have a king, and is shutting down. i would put him on a mid pocket pair trying to get to showdown here.

it depends on whether you think he will fold any sort of mid pair here. i would be inclined to bet/shove as a semibluff again, but thats a hard one.

if you check behind on the turn, and then hit your flush on the river, are you really gonna stack him anyway? any aggression there would seem like a really obvious flush draw to me if i was the other player.

i think you have to fold to turn aggression, which is why i dont really like flatting the flop. if you flat and miss, and shove to his bet, he is never ever folding

[BigPete33]

If you shove and miss, you are goooooooooone

[krunchie]

And there we have it.

I just don't like it.

Mr Horse has spoken

dunno about mr horse but it looks like pauline hanson has joined our little forum.


ps i picked jam all in as my option