JHDSS Opening Event Spot

[gmatical]

BB - 100k ish
Button 40k ish
SB (ME) 40k isk - J 10 Hearts

1600/800 100 Ante

Button limps, I complete, BB checks.

POT - 5k ish
FLOP

J club 10 club Q diamond

I bet 6k, BB folds, Button ALL IN.

me........ ?!?!?!?!??!

[AceLosesKing]

Fold.

[bennymacca]

Fold.

yep, fold.

AT BEST you are flipping against pair + draw type hands.

plenty of hands have you crushed already as well.

basically NO hand you are a big favourite against - even against aces you are only 60% - kings you are 50.1%!

this range prolly isn't 100% accurate, but it would be close


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

81,180 games 0.005 secs 16,236,000 games/sec

Board: Jc Tc Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.034% 36.40% 03.63% 29551 2949.00 { JhTh }
Hand 1: 59.966% 56.33% 03.63% 45731 2949.00 { 99+, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KQs, QJs, Q9s, JTs, AKo, KQo, QJo, Q9o, JTo }

[Brett Kay]

As it stands need more information from how the players have been playing.

If it is your first hand at the table, you can find a fold, and are still good with 33k.

If you make the call you are going to be worried about AK, any A Any K for straight draws. Any queen for counterfeits. Any of the three pockets for sets. Your sort of ahead, but not by a lot.

Button could have aces as well, limping in hoping for a raise and then jam over the top.

How far to the money also factors the decision? 20bbs or a m of 15. your not hugely desperate for chips, think you can find a very hard fold.

[bennymacca]

As it stands need more information from how the players have been playing.

If it is your first hand at the table, you can find a fold, and are still good with 33k.

If you make the call you are going to be worried about AK, any A Any K for straight draws. Any queen for counterfeits. Any of the three pockets for sets. Your sort of ahead, but not by a lot.

Button could have aces as well, limping in hoping for a raise and then jam over the top.

How far to the money also factors the decision? 20bbs or a m of 15. your not hugely desperate for chips, think you can find a very hard fold.

i really dont think its that hard a fold, given the limited info we have - i am assuming the person that jammed isn't a complete monkey.

what hands do you beat that shove there?

do you want to flip against aces or kings? or KQ? basically any other hand has you crushed.

i prolly call a lot of the time here, because its hard to fold, but i dont think its ever right to call really. unless you have some specific read.

[muzzington]

That's a brutal small blind.

[Scotty]

i really dont think its that hard a fold

i prolly call a lot of the time here, because its hard to fold

[David]

New Sig IMO

[bennymacca]

i haz two pair!!!!!!

what i mean is, in the heat of the moment, i call sometimes, but looking at it now, i dont think it is ever correct to do so, unless you have a read that he would be shoving any flop.

but lets face it, it would be a huge huge bluff to make right there.

[Brett Kay]

Limited info is the key word.

what would the button limp then shove with. He could even be firing off with air, thinking that Gmatical has bottom pair or SFA.

Obviously we can take the time, run it through stove find the numbers and go yeah the fold is the right option.

As it stands heat of the moment, Live tourney, a 40k stack is trying to get and extra 8k into his stack. Another stack is looking at the double up to go to 80k, you can easily get blinded into making the call.

I probably would call off every day of the week and find i have run into aces and praying the board doesn't counterfeit or drop the 2 other aces left. Flush draws and straight draws means oh bugger.