AQ - Do you believe the river shove?

[trishan]

call me a nit, but i most likely folding pre to a 4-bet when im holding AQ OOP.

Fold river too. Was your plan always to c/c to the river? interested on your thoughts here.

What do you think the villain put you on? You flat call a 4-bet pre. c/c flop. check turn, then lead river? Its all a bit strange, and if i was villain i would probably put you on TT/JJ/AK.

It looks to me like he found his bluff card on the river and thinks that you will fold the above hands.

His c-bet size was only about half pot (pretty weak), so is there ever a case for a check/raise on the flop here? knowing that we are only really behind to AA/KK/QQ and flipping with AKs? Im pretty sure we might find out where we are pretty quickly. Although is becomes a hard spot if he ships to our check/raise.

Interesting hand though.

Yes I meant to c/r the flop but I think because I was multitabling and running deep in a tourney was not paying much attention. So I said I would check raise the turn (as it is a good card to check raise.) and then see where I am at. Also a raise on the turn will hopefully price out any draws to the flush.

The history is important here:

In the hands prior to this I have been playing loose.

So there is no way I am folding AQ to a 4-bet as I know my image on the table and what hands he may think is good enough to 4bet ie 99-AA, AQ/AK/AJ and even A 10.

[bennymacca]

So there is no way I am folding AQ to a 4-bet as I know my image on the table and what hands he may think is good enough to 4bet ie 99-AA, AQ/AK/AJ and even A 10.

that is a massively wide range to be 4betting, but even so, you are still beaten by it

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,356,144,768 games 0.750 secs 1,808,193,024 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.094% 48.39% 07.71% 656186508 104533008.00 { 99+, ATs+, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 43.906% 36.20% 07.71% 490892244 104533008.00 { AQo }


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[bennymacca]

looking at the hand again, his range is massively polarised on the river. he either has the flush, puts you on a Q, and thinks you would call, or he has air.

either way, you have to pay a lot to find out, which makes it a pretty high variance call.

if you were 60% sure that he was bluffing, then technically its a call, but its also a 200BB swing that you dont really need to have at these stakes.



whether calling or not its +EV for this particular hand is debatable, but i think its definitely negative future EV.

let me explain that.

three things might happen. first, if this guy is a fish, and he stacks you, he will be 400bb deep, and there is a chance he will get up and leave.

second, even if he stays, you just gave up the opportunity to play deep stack poker with this guy, because you can only reload for 100bb.

third, it tilts the hell out of me when i make a crying call in this spot, run into a flush or a set, or even worse, some crappy rivered 2 pair, and realise that i just spewed off a 200bb stack when i am basically guessing and have no reads on whether he does this with a good hand or air.

all of these things hurt your future win rate at the table. so unless you are absolutely sure that he is bluffing, i think its better to fold, keep your deepish stack, and find another opportunity to put it in when you are way ahead.

btw, i hope you made a note on that guy.

[trishan]

Sometimes you just know when people with goodish hands are 4betting just because they have seen you play really loose over a period of 30 mins and so I felt as though I had to call given my table image. He is just as likely to do this with Ax than with AK.

[bennymacca]

Sometimes you just know when people with goodish hands are 4betting just because they have seen you play really loose over a period of 30 mins and so I felt as though I had to call given my table image. He is just as likely to do this with Ax than with AK.

thats a good enough reason, but i think the mistake is calling out of position.

because your opponent has position on you, he has still made it extremely difficult for you to play, even though its pretty much a gold board for your hand.

also, folding to a 3bet here is sometimes good for your image, because they think you are raising light still.

[trishan]

Sometimes you just know when people with goodish hands are 4betting just because they have seen you play really loose over a period of 30 mins and so I felt as though I had to call given my table image. He is just as likely to do this with Ax than with AK.

thats a good enough reason, but i think the mistake is calling out of position.

because your opponent has position on you, he has still made it extremely difficult for you to play, even though its pretty much a gold board for your hand.

also, folding to a 3bet here is sometimes good for your image, because they think you are raising light still.

Yeh that's fair enough.

[bennymacca]

its a pretty interesting hand in general i think, plenty going on.

[maccatak11]

And also, just because you think that you are playing loose, you cant really be sure that everbody else at the table a) reads the play the same way as you, b) cares (especially if villain is a fish).

I make this mistake all the time. I know ive been playing really tight, and after an hour when i finally make a squeze play with 9T suited on the button for all my chips, somebody calls with A2 and it holds. Just because i know they should fold, doesnt mean they have the same thought processes.

[gmatical]

its a pretty interesting hand in general i think, plenty going on.

It became interesting because it was played poorly.

The flop - safe as houses for you. Nothing to fear here, no big bad K high. Not likely straights.

You are playing against a player that has pre-flop aggression. You should be getting as much $$ in the pot whilst it is likely you have the best hand. And you do have the likely best hand.

He will often call with any pairl. If he has you beat here, gg wp etc, but it is unlikely that he has. He could be flushing a small % of the time here - but you shouldn't worry about what may come when u have Top Top.

The Turn

Hasn't hit a flush draw, hasn't improved any likely holdings - get more $$ in - shit, get as much in as you can. Get so much in that he will fold underpairs to the Q.
The River - Should not be an issue because he would likely be long gone by then - but as played - i think it is a fold. But hell, if your gonna play 'loose' dont be a wimp when you get a super flop - bet, bet BET! If he calls all the way, you will be committed by the river and the deciscion will be easy peasy lemon squeezy.

Did you think he hit the flush or that he had you beat all the way?

[bennymacca]

It became interesting because it was played poorly.

yep