10NL Thin Value Bet on the River?

[muzzington]

I like to agree with the guy who said "check behind get to showdown and pick up a read."

I also need to start playing again because I thought little about his bet sizing.

[Garth Kay]

I just read this thread and I love the quality of the discussion.

Checking the river is the optimum play in my mind, I would say you are getting called by a better hand almost 60% of the time (I was going to say 75%, but decided to be conservative).

So much of a standard 3 bet range has you beat on that board. I could go into more details and break down the maths but I'm tired and focusing on my day ahead.

You did the right thing benny the cunt, villain can wake up with AQ, AK, AA and KK at tops here. And you have played it like you're on the draw. So here are some things to consider:

1.) You have stated yourself that you table is image aggressive so therefore villain believes he is ahead of 99% of your range for opening from the button.
2.) If villain believes he is holding the strong hand (which in this situation is likely with AK) and you have played your hand like you're on the draw, what is the optimum line on this river against a LAGGY player?
3.) If villain is thinking he is quite often checking blank rivers to extract value from you as 70% of the time a LAG player will be the river to represent strength or is the only way to win the pot when draw is busted.

And finally at no stage have any of you really discussed what range the villain is putting Hero on. In Villain's shoes I would feel that AK high is winning at showdown quite a few times against LAG opening on the button on that board, especially with the line benny the cunt took.

So in my mind, hero's range and line really does have us beat quite a bit of the time.

[bennymacca]

thanks for your input garth

1.) You have stated yourself that you table is image aggressive so therefore villain believes he is ahead of 99% of your range for opening from the button.

yep i think he would feel he is well ahead of my button opening range. well more importantly, my 3bet calling range from the button vs a sb 3bet as well. from the button, in the last week, i have been raising 45% of my hands when it has been folded to me.

2.) If villain believes he is holding the strong hand (which in this situation is likely with AK) and you have played your hand like you're on the draw, what is the optimum line on this river against a LAGGY player?
3.) If villain is thinking he is quite often checking blank rivers to extract value from you as 70% of the time a LAG player will be the river to represent strength or is the only way to win the pot when draw is busted.

thinking about it, if he really is a decent player, check-calling the river with AK might even be possible, if he doesn't have the Ah that is.

depends on if he is thinking enough to take into account my image (which is tight and very aggressive, i play 22/18/3.5agg at the moment)

And finally at no stage have any of you really discussed what range the villain is putting Hero on. In Villain's shoes I would feel that AK high is winning at showdown quite a few times against LAG opening on the button on that board, especially with the line benny the cunt took.

from villains point of view, he could reasonably expect me to wind up with some sort of draw here just as much as a lower pp, so his AK might well be good a lot of the time. his half pot bet on the turn may have actually been for value, if he is putting me on a draw. thats why he lowered his bet size so i call with a draw again.

but if the above is true, that would mean i could just about value bet against AK right here, because if he puts me on the draw, there is a chance he might call. what if i bet something like 1/3 pot, something like $3.5. that may get him to pay off with AK in this spot.

all in all though, i think that is a little too much leveling for a 10NL hand. whilst he has decent stats, i dont think villain is a thinking enough player to have all this go through his head and think his AK is good in this spot. i think he was just giving up on the river with AK.

i also think that he is check-calling most of his range, especially since he knows that i am aggro and might take the pot away from him. (+ve redline FTW)

[gmatical]

from villains point of view, he could reasonably expect me to wind up with some sort of draw here just as much as a lower pp, so his AK might well be good a lot of the time. his half pot bet on the turn may have actually been for value, if he is putting me on a draw. thats why he lowered his bet size so i call with a draw again.

It's not a very draw heavy board, I wouldn't get too caught up in this element.

Removing this aspect leaves him to put you on lower PP or air. He only beats air. If he calls a river value bet (or shove) from you - thinking AK is good, you must have been showing down some absolute junk throughout your time at the table together. I doubt that you have been tho.

[bennymacca]

i called twice on that board, after flatting a 3bet. flush draws are very much in my range, perhaps moreso than pocket pairs.

[gmatical]

i called twice on that board, after flatting a 3bet. flush draws are very much in my range, perhaps moreso than pocket pairs.

I understand the flush draw is present, but what flush cards are you calling 3 bets with pre ?

AK hearts - possible
AQ hearts - not possible
AJ hearts - possible
A10 hearts - bottom of your range.
A 9 hearts - very bottom of your range
A 8 hearts - not possible
A 7 hearts and below - not likely to be in your range calling a 3bet
KQ hearts - not possible
KJ hearts - not likely to be in your range calling a 3bet.
K10 or worse - highly unlikely in your range.
Qx hearts - not possible
Jx hearts - unlikely, well maybe J10 cos some people cant fold a royal draw (me included if cheap enough)

So in all likelihood AK & AJ hearts is almost the only flush draw your actions (calling 3bet pre then 2 streets) can represent, but there are many pairs that behave this way too.

I think the way you played the hand is fine, what I am trying to present is reasons why your hand is most likely good. (likely, not definetly)

Add to this AA, KK are unlikely, Q is unlikely with two Q's on board, the flush draw didnt get there, no straight draw got there, his check on river is weak......

I like a bet on the end, but it is far from compulsary.

[Des]

how can you process all this stuff in the few minutes you have to act?

you cant

[bennymacca]

obviously you dont think hard enough about poker des.

the point is, if you discuss these hands in depth now, it becomes second nature to you when you get into the situation, because you have played out all the scenarios before hand