Misclick leads to tough descison.....

[bennymacca]

True Aaron, but I think we can gaurantee that we are behind....

NOONE is saying that we wont be behind

BUT we are getting the correct odds to call.

[JMACK007]

Yes benny the cunt, pot odds are a fundamental, but do not rule the game. There are plenty of times (I am sure you have had them), when you know you are against either AA or KK. The range here has to be that, to re-raise allin to such a massive preflop raise, I instantly put him on Aces. I am not pushing the last of my chips in here with J6 against Aces. You have to trust your read sooner or later as well as the maths mate....

[bennymacca]

Yes benny the cunt, pot odds are a fundamental, but do not rule the game. There are plenty of times (I am sure you have had them), when you know you are against either AA or KK. The range here has to be that, to re-raise allin to such a massive preflop raise, I instantly put him on Aces. I am not pushing the last of my chips in here with J6 against Aces. You have to trust your read sooner or later as well as the maths mate....

you are not getting it

reads are what you use to put a player on a range.

if you think that his range is AA and KK only, then you fold. but this range HAS to be based on previous experiences, physical tells etc. it can't just be a "feeling"


in this case, we have no reason to believe that the villain only has AA or KK here. he clearly can have a wider range than that. his stats indicate this, (3% 3bet stat) and the fact that its an obvious misclick means that his range is probably wider


so with a wide range, we are getting the correct odds. and we call

of course if he only has AA or KK we fold, but we dont have any reads to base this.


so decisions are always ALWAYS made according to maths, but in order to calculate the maths, we need to put our opponent on a range, and thats where the reads come in.


does that make sense?

[AceLosesKing]

There are plenty of times (I am sure you have had them), when you know you are against either AA or KK.

Not when the action goes bet (or raise, however you want to specify it)/all in, which is what we are dealing with here.

The range here has to be that, to re-raise allin to such a massive preflop raise, I instantly put him on Aces.

lol, so if he has Kings, he's folding?

Actually, seriously, if you had Jacks in this spot, even Tens, what are you doing?

[JMACK007]

It's probably because I play poker without all the bells a whistles that you guys do. I don't use any other software or "odds websites", I just play poker! That is probably a big failing of mine, but in this instance, I put the guy on AA. You can overthink these things, and saying he puts us on a mis-click is way overthinking it I believe...

[JMACK007]

Aaron, KK maybe, but really, I put him on the nuts here pre, so AA.

JJ or 10 10 here would be hard to get away from, but I have laid both of these down in similar situations...

[Garth Kay]

Ok here it is, I was going to drag this on for quite a few days and let the debate continue to rage.

But the fact seems to remain that not everyone here fully understands specific hand ranges, pot odds and equity. Nor do they full comprehend the maths laid out or my examples.

I will give gmatic's answer that I requested of him and was hoping someone would take up the challenge and debate with me.

Playing poker is always about exploiting your edges, the ultimate goal is always to seek out the most +EV play that benefits us the most in the long term, as players. We try to exploit every edge, whether it be mathematical, psychological or physical. Whatever edge we have no matter how small.

In the case of this specific scenario we have all the maths to support us to make the call, and against specific re shove ranges greater than the top 3% of hands, we are still making a +EV call; as we win more than we lose over an infinite run of hands (even if we use a small data sample to prove the point). Do we all follow and agree with this? There is a definite edge to exploit here; as we have more specific information we can begin to calculate how great that edge is against our opponent more accurately.

Now in some cases you will find you are running over a table, reading your opponents extremely well or just clearly dominating and running hot; the simple fact of the matter is that there is no doubt that the LONG TERM profitable play is to fold here and find better spots (with greater edges) to stick in 50+ BB's pre flop. This is a mild argument but in reality there will always be better spots to commit large volumes of BB's, but this does need to be considered. If your table is weak you are better off folding here and continue to check raise, 3bet, 4bet wide and use all of your aggressive tool - but the above only applies to truly skilled poker players who can read their table and understand how to play aggressive poker and can exploit their opponents.

There will always be an argument for the maths, and if you always make +EV plays you will ALWAYS be a winning poker player. The maths doesn't lie; as long as you have a large hand sample in the tens of millions. But continue to make +EV plays is all that can be asked of us as poker players, and in this case against an unknown range this is a marginal play, even with Mikes stats it's still a borderline play.

But against a villain with a greater than the 8% re shove range, it's a no brainer to make the call and roll it out.


Jo - I think you should re analyse benny the cunt's statements, I will take 4:1 in that scenario every time.

What if I said to you that the opponent had 99 and you had J6 Suited and you were calling of $10 to win $30 does that sound different? Or we can change the 99 to AK? How do you feel about those hands?

[Garth Kay]

Jo - let's take this offline and I will show you a few things when I am over in Adelaide next week. I'm not been patronising I just think it will be easier to explain this in person than over the forum.

But to read people as only having AA in this spot is a big leak, because trust me (and others here will vouch for it) if I think you are weak or making a play or I can force a fold I will re shove and put the pressure on you and most times I won't even look at my holdings.

In this case to a reg this is obviously a huge misclick and he assigns a standard button open range, which is pretty big then I am more than willing to reship hoping to get a fold from 80% of his range and go to war against his other 20%.

Do you follow this, you just can't say he has only AA or KK in this spot.

[bennymacca]

It's probably because I play poker without all the bells a whistles that you guys do. I don't use any other software or "odds websites", I just play poker! That is probably a big failing of mine, but in this instance, I put the guy on AA. You can overthink these things, and saying he puts us on a mis-click is way overthinking it I believe...

there is no way in hell you can ever put someone on just aces here.

unfortunately mike posted the results as well, which has obviously skewed your thinking.

Ok here it is

good post garth, although im sure people will just pick bits out of it that support their theories

[Garth Kay]

It's probably because I play poker without all the bells a whistles that you guys do. I don't use any other software or "odds websites", I just play poker! That is probably a big failing of mine, but in this instance, I put the guy on AA. You can overthink these things, and saying he puts us on a mis-click is way overthinking it I believe...

Download Poker Stove mate. It's a basic maths tool and it invaluable when studying/reviewing your hands, either live or online.

But I also think you are putting to much of your 888PL experience into this, I know that the average 888PL player wont even consider a 3 bet unless it is AA or KK, but in ring games a standard 3 bet can be something like QT suited.