Misclick leads to tough descison.....

[JMACK007]

Yeah, but the odds are against you picking it...

[bennymacca]

look what you have done, you have made me go and do some programming.

standby

[JMACK007]

Now, I haven't had time to sit down with Garth yet, but if you are gonna put your chips in against the odds on a regular basis, I recon you will finish behind...

[JMACK007]

look what you have done, you have made me go and do some programming.

standby

[JMACK007]

Reminds me of this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Haha, just had a chance to look at this. Perfect example of over thinking IMO....

(the Wiki page, not you Aaron!)...

[JMACK007]

C'mon benny the cunt, where are you?

[bennymacca]

C'mon benny the cunt, where are you?

sorry mate, you set me off. and once you have done that, well be prepared to have your ear talked off

thankyou for making me miss out on 45 mins of sleep.

Now, I haven't had time to sit down with Garth yet, but if you are gonna put your chips in against the odds on a regular basis, I recon you will finish behind...

you are not behind, thats the point.

ok, now i am going to continue with the previous example, where we either win $35 if we choose correctly, or we lose 10 if we lose.


we win 1/3, and lose 2/3
1/3 of the time we win $25 (getting our buyin back just counts as breakeven, this is why this number is $25 and not $35)
2/3 of the time we lose 10

if we do the maths, we get 1/3 * 25 - 2/3 * 10 = +$1.6667. i.e in the long run, it will be profitable for us to play this game, because even though we lose more than we win, the payoff makes it worth it. our expectation value for each game is +$1.67



now lets examine that in practical terms.

i have generated a random number between 1 and 3, representing the number that the prize is behind.

we will also choose a door randomly. if our choice matches that of the prize, we win, otherwise we lose.


now, lets run that 1000 times.


here are a few 1000 game runs. note that we should win $1.6 every hand, which is what the line on the graph indicates.

now as you can see, EVEN OVER 1000 GAMES we can have exceptionally good or bad (or average runs)

Average:



Good:


Bad:



this is where the terms run good or run bad come from. even though, statistically we should win $1.6 on average, that fluctuates a lot.

but if we run it over a million hands, we can see that everything averages out




this is pretty fundamental in poker, because the differences in EV we are talking about are typically no more than 5% - when i.e in the classic QQ vs AK flip. so you could lose this 20 times in a row. but does that mean you played bad? no, its all about making the correct decisions, not worrying about the individual outcome of each hand.


sorry to those that are reading this, i am clearly rambling and its bed time.

[bennymacca]

Reminds me of this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Haha, just had a chance to look at this. Perfect example of over thinking IMO....

(the Wiki page, not you Aaron!)...

this is definitely not over thinking, its statistics!

(by your definition, the last 7 years i have spent at uni have been overthinking

[bennymacca]

by the way, if i knew how to write a script to access the results from poker stove (apparently you can do it) then would do it for the actual situation above, but i dont know how, so we are stuck with the doors example.

[JMACK007]

What if I said to you that the opponent had 99 and you had J6 Suited and you were calling of $10 to win $30 does that sound different? Or we can change the 99 to AK? How do you feel about those hands?

Sorry I didn't answer these earlier. As I said earlier Garth, I instantly put him on AA or KK, so you example hands didn't come in to it. Against both of youe examples, I would definitely call....