$4.40 180-man SnG - Queens facing overbet on low flop

[trishan]

Ok so I was playing a 180-man SnG. Sitting in 16th out 70 and I get Queens UTG. Villain raises kinda small in UTG+1. Villain is 38/13/2.

PokerStars Game #46077543697: Tournament #286786191, $4.00+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2010/06/28 12:03:25 AEST [2010/06/27 22:03:25 ET]
Table '286786191 4' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: raisin2 (1940 in chips)
Seat 2: layitdownplz (2255 in chips)
Seat 3: jrhan (2300 in chips)
Seat 4: DaNutzQ3 (1760 in chips)
Seat 5: KymonroeWh (1820 in chips)
Seat 6: trishan09 (5662 in chips)
Seat 7: gilly50773 (5895 in chips)
Seat 8: agresor (4880 in chips)
Seat 9: cow1888 (1305 in chips)
DaNutzQ3: posts small blind 75
KymonroeWh: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to trishan09 [Qs] [Qh]
trishan09: raises 225 to 375
gilly50773: raises 225 to 600
agresor: folds
cow1888: folds
raisin2: folds
layitdownplz: folds
jrhan: folds
DaNutzQ3: folds
KymonroeWh: folds
trishan09: calls 225
*** FLOP *** [8c] [3d] [5c]
trishan09: checks
gilly50773: bets 2550
trishan09???

[Garth Kay]

What sample do you have on villain?

And is the 2 in his stats agg factor or 3bet%?

If sample is greater than 500 hands and the last figure is 3B% then you are in a bit of trouble and I would probably fold looking for a better spot.

If sample is small then you are in no mans land; even then the worst hand you could be facing here is JJ or AQ, the rest of villains three bet range (even if he is tight agg) has you crushed.

I don't think any player with those stats is three betting from EP with less than JJ.

So in the end I fold and look to stack off somewhere else to another crazy nutbar!
I think he has AA and KK here about 90% of the time in these tourneys.

Also why are you calling a min re raise OOP? Why not four bet once in awhile and try and polarize villains range?

[trishan]

What sample do you have on villain?

And is the 2 in his stats agg factor or 3bet%?

If sample is greater than 500 hands and the last figure is 3B% then you are in a bit of trouble and I would probably fold looking for a better spot.

If sample is small then you are in no mans land; even then the worst hand you could be facing here is JJ or AQ, the rest of villains three bet range (even if he is tight agg) has you crushed.

I don't think any player with those stats is three betting from EP with less than JJ.

So in the end I fold and look to stack off somewhere else to another crazy nutbar!
I think he has AA and KK here about 90% of the time in these tourneys.

Also why are you calling a min re raise OOP? Why not four bet once in awhile and try and polarize villains range?

Sorry Garth forgot to mention - very small sample of 43 hands. Stats are VPIP/3BET/Agg factor.

What do you make of his min raise 3-bet?

[bennymacca]

i think i 4bet pre as well, to 1.4k.

other than that, it looks very very strong.

tough spot actually.

as garth said you are crushed a lot of the time, but its pretty hard to get away on a board like that

[pundies]

I put your villan on AK suited (club) and I put all my chips in over the top of his flop bet.

But I also would have bet harder pre flop.

[Garth Kay]

FYI when talking stats:

VPIP/PFR/3bet%/AGGfactor

is quote often the norm, and if discussing predominantly pre flop hand ranges and post flop play then the Agg can often be thrown away.

Your sample size is too small for stats to devise any strategy or base any decision on them.

If you are telling me that villain has played 38% of his 43 hands and then 3bet 13% of these hands then get the chips in, if you are confused between PFR and 3B% (which I think you are) then close down, fold it and find a better spot where you know your edge is great.

Generally when a player 3bets or 4bets and leads at the flop by overbetting the pot it means one of two things:

1.) Oh shit, the flush/str8 draw is there and I'm sick of having AA/KK busted so lets bet big to scare him off.
2.) Oh shit, I didn't hit anything with my AK or AQ, oh well I still have to overs and this guy will probably have AJ or AT anyways.

Something along those lines. I think you can honestly say he has an overpair here greater than JJ a larger majority of the time.


I think what you need to take away from all of this is two things:

A.) If a punk three bets you and you're holding a top 5% hand then you should 4 bet no matter what at these levels and look to get it in (until you have a decent read and sample size).

B.) ESPECIALLY 4 bet if the punk min 3 bets FFS!

[bennymacca]

B.) ESPECIALLY 4 bet if the punk min 3 bets FFS!

the "GFTO as if you min 3bet me i 4bet" is a strong part of the bennymacca kit bag.

also a good way to get me to spew off my chips

[gmatical]

Hmmmmmm, preflop action suggests large made hand (AA,KK,QQ (it's possible!) maybe JJ)

His post flop action does not.

Just a weird bet amount....... scared of the flush with made hand - possible, AK & hasn't improved, betting to take it down with overs if called - possible.

I am confused - and as such would fold my QQ - plenty of chips left to keep grinding.

But then again it is a 180 man SnG & his bet may be air......

No, I still fold based on all the circumstances, unless you have witnessed something sus in your previous time together.

[Garth Kay]

I might say fold too guys, as this is the correct play.

But I call off in this spot way too many times for it to be an +EV play. Even if he bets pot I am shoving over the top.

It's just how my game has gone downhill recently, I cannot keep a level head and too often the rush of blood is what makes my decision for me.

What I am trying to say is that noone is really a fool for stacking off in this spot, folding QQ and up on this flop is a BIG disciplined move with limited data.

[bennymacca]

I might say fold too guys, as this is the probably the correct play.

But I call off in this spot way too many times for it to be an +EV play. Even if he bets pot I am shoving over the top.

It's just how my game has gone downhill recently, I cannot keep a level head and too often the rush of blood is what makes my decision for me.

What I am trying to say is that noone is really a fool for stacking off in this spot, folding QQ and up on this flop is a BIG disciplined move with limited data.

this +1million

i stack off here every day of the week and then tilt because i know it was the right move to fold.